Kinetic Strike (Cherkasy): A missile strike was reported in Zolotonosha, Cherkasy Oblast; explosions were confirmed following an air raid alert (10:30Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
Russian Territorial Claim: The Russian MoD claims the "liberation" of Bondarnoye in the Donetsk region by "Yug" Group forces (10:39Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM).
Expanded UAV Vectors: New OWA-UAV (Shahed) activity detected in NE Chernihiv Oblast (near Semenivka) heading west, alongside ongoing threats to Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia (10:33Z-10:49Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
Intensified KAB Strikes: RF aviation conducted repeated KAB launches targeting the Donetsk sector, specifically supporting the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole axes (10:32Z-10:51Z, Liveuamap/AFU Air Force, HIGH).
Strategic Information Operation: Coordinated dissemination of imagery and reports regarding the alleged capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by US "Delta Force." Sources indicate the primary "proof" photo is likely fabricated (10:35Z-10:46Z, Various/ASTRA/Sternenko, UNCONFIRMED / LOW).
C2 Degradation: Russian 16th NBC Protection Brigade claims destruction of a UAF drone command post in Vozdvizhevka (10:30Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk / Donetsk Sector: Remains the most active kinetic zone. GS ZSU reports heavy clashes across a wide front including Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, and Kotlyne. RF is utilizing intensive tactical aviation (KABs) to soften defenses (10:33Z-10:51Z).
Konstantynivka Sector: Clashes reported in Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka, and Kleban-Byk, indicating RF efforts to expand the salient around the railway station (10:33Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): RF aviation struck 9+ settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region. In the Kherson sector, UAF successfully repelled 4 ground assaults near the Dnipro River line (10:32Z-10:33Z).
Northern Border (Chernihiv/Kharkiv): A new drone vector is active in NE Chernihiv. In Kharkiv, clashes continue near Vovchansk and Hrabovske, confirming the "Sever" group's intent to fix UAF reserves (10:32Z-10:49Z).
Lyman/Kupyansk: Defensive actions continue near Petropavlivka (Kupyansk) and Drobysheve/Torske (Lyman) (10:32Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: RF is maintaining a high sortie rate with KABs and airstrikes across the entire southern and eastern fronts, suggesting no shortage of precision-guided kits in these sectors.
Hybrid/IO Shift: The RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs and state media (TASS) have fully pivoted to the "Venezuela Aggression" narrative. This is being used to flood the information space and potentially distract international monitoring of frontline developments (10:46Z).
Ground Tactics: The claim of taking Bondarnoye (10:39Z) suggests the "Yug" group is achieving localized breakthroughs while UAF is focused on the Pokrovsk defense.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: UAF continues to hold the line in the Kherson sector despite repeated assaults and air pressure.
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and IADS are actively tracking multiple UAV groups across three oblasts (Chernihiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia).
Information environment / disinformation
Venezuela "Capture" Disinformation: High-volume traffic (TASS, Alex Parker, Sternenko) regarding the US operation in Venezuela. Multiple sources have flagged the "first photo of Maduro in custody" as a fabrication (10:43Z-10:46Z). This appears to be a classic "reflexive control" operation to gauge Western response or distract from tactical RF maneuvers.
Zelensky Allegations: Proxy official Saldo is pushing a narrative that President Zelensky personally planned attacks on the Kremlin, likely to provide "moral equivalence" for Russian strikes on Ukrainian leadership (10:55Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV/Missile saturation targeting logistics hubs in Dnipro and Cherkasy. RF will likely attempt to consolidate the reported gain in Bondarnoye.
MDCOA: RF may exploit the Venezuelan "diplomatic crisis" to conduct a large-scale missile strike on Kyiv or other high-value targets while international attention is fragmented.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bondarnoye Status: Urgent BDA/Imagery required to confirm if UAF has withdrawn from Bondarnoye or if it remains contested.
UAV Technical Forensics: Monitor if the Shaheds over Chernihiv are utilizing the new IR-dazzler modules reported in the daily report.
Zolotonosha Strike: Identify if the explosion was a successful interception or a kinetic impact on infrastructure.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield remains highly fluid. The RF is attempting to translate air superiority (KABs) into incremental ground gains (Bondarnoye) while leveraging a global "Black Swan" event (Venezuela) to dominate the cognitive domain.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF forces are showing a preference for "Broad Front" pressure. By initiating clashes from Kupyansk down to Kherson simultaneously, they are testing for thin points in the UAF line. The use of NBC (RkhBZ) units for drone C2 destruction (10:30Z) suggests a deployment of specialized electronic warfare or thermobaric assets at the tactical level.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is in a "flexible defense" posture. The repel of 4 assaults in Kherson indicates high tactical proficiency, but the sheer volume of clashes reported by GS ZSU (10:33Z) suggests significant strain on ammunition and personnel across the Pokrovsk-Konstantynivka line.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The Venezuela narrative has achieved "Saturation" (Belief score 0.25). The RF is weaponizing this to portray the US as an "aggressor" (10:46Z) to international audiences (BRICS/SCO), specifically targeting Global South sentiment (10:52Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Tactical Warning: The repeated KAB launches at 10:51Z are a precursor to a high-intensity ground assault in the Donetsk sector within the next 3 hours.
Strategic Warning: The cancellation of Moscow-Caracas flights (10:51Z) and the call for a UN Security Council meeting (10:46Z) indicate Russia is preparing for a long-term diplomatic escalation using the Venezuela situation as a primary lever.
