Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-03T10:30Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Confirmed Missile Interception: A guided air missile transiting Poltava and Cherkasy Oblasts was neutralized ("minus") following a 20-minute flight path targeting the Zolotonosha/Cherkasy vicinity (10:09Z-10:27Z, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, HIGH).
• Venezuela C2 Ambiguity: Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez officially stated the government has no information on the location of President Maduro and his wife, following earlier reports of a US "Delta Force" operation (10:07Z-10:10Z, TASS/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
• Official US/RF Diplomatic Escalation: US State Department officials claim Maduro "will face justice," while the Russian MFA issued a formal statement condemning "US armed aggression" and calling for an urgent UN Security Council meeting (10:11Z-10:16Z, Sternenko/TASS/Alex Parker, HIGH).
• Ground Engagement (Pokrovsk Sector): Pro-Russian "Sparta" Battalion reports destroying UAF armor near Novoaleksandrovka, while Ukrainian sources report mass drone strikes ("ru-rez") against Russian forces in the same sector (09:59Z-10:00Z, NM DNR/Butusov, MEDIUM).
• UGV Counter-Operations: UAF forces successfully engaged and destroyed newly deployed Russian Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) in an unspecified critical sector (10:08Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
• Regional Instability (Iran): Unconfirmed reports indicate Ayatollah Khamenei has authorized the suppression of domestic unrest, suggesting a widening of global instability (10:27Z, Colonelcassad, LOW).

Operational picture (by sector)

• Poltava/Cherkasy Sector: A high-speed aerial target (guided missile) was tracked from southern Sumy through Hadyach and Lubny toward Cherkasy before being intercepted. This indicates a persistent RF effort to strike central Ukrainian logistics or C2 nodes using complex flight paths (10:09Z-10:27Z).
• Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Novoaleksandrovka): The sector remains the kinetic center of gravity. RF is employing specialized units (Sparta Battalion) to counter UAF drone supremacy. UAF is utilizing high-frequency FPV strikes to attrit RF "millionaire" equipment (high-value assets) (10:00Z).
• Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia: Multiple OWA-UAV (Shahed) vectors are active. One group is moving NW toward Dnipro city from the south, while another targets Pavlohrad/Slavhorod from the east. This suggests a pincer-style UAV saturation attempt on Dnipro’s logistics hub (10:00Z-10:16Z).
• Northern Border: No new ground incursions reported since the Hrabovske update, but aerial activity (missile launches) continues to originate from or transit this airspace.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Aerial Tactics: RF continues to utilize "multi-vector" saturation, combining OWA-UAVs with guided air missiles to overstretch UAF Air Defense (AD) in the central regions. The launch of fresh KABs toward Donetsk (10:26Z) indicates immediate tactical air support for the ongoing ground assaults near Pokrovsk.
• Technology: Despite the deployment of UGVs for logistics and mine-clearing (identified in the daily report), UAF has already adapted, claiming successful destructions of these platforms (10:08Z).
• Logistics: Russian mil-bloggers (Dva Mayora) continue to report significant logistical and medical strain near the front lines, highlighting the high human cost of the current RF offensive (10:02Z).

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense: Effective tracking and interception of the guided missile over Cherkasy demonstrates high readiness of AD units in the interior.
• Drone Warfare: UAF "Alpha" and specialized drone units (Butusov/Sternenko) are maintaining a high-tempo strike rate against RF armor and personnel, likely compensating for artillery ammunition constraints.
• Deep Sea Ops: HUR medical units successfully conducted a "unique operation" at sea under fire, demonstrating continued maritime special operations capability despite the focus on land fronts (10:12Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• Strategic Displacement: The Russian MFA is heavily prioritizing the "Venezuela Aggression" narrative (10:16Z) to frame the US as a lawless actor. This is likely intended to erode Western public support for Ukraine by drawing parallels between US actions in Latin America and RF actions in Ukraine.
• Conspiracy Narratives: RF mil-bloggers are floating "decapitation" counter-theories (e.g., Zelensky being replaced by an FSB double) to sow internal distrust within Ukraine (09:59Z, Kotenok).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation of Dnipro and Pavlohrad. RF will likely launch a second wave of missiles if UAVs successfully identify AD gaps.
• MDCOA: RF may attempt to exploit the Venezuelan "fog of war" to conduct a high-impact strike on Ukrainian leadership or critical infrastructure, banking on a distracted international community.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Maduro Status: Confirm if Maduro is in US custody; his physical location significantly impacts the credibility of the RF "aggression" narrative.
2. Missile Type: Identify the specific model of the guided missile downed over Cherkasy (likely Kh-59/69 variant) to assess the launch platform (Su-34/35).
3. Iran Connection: Monitor for links between the reported Iranian unrest and RF/Iranian drone supply chains.

---

Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The operational tempo is high, characterized by a mix of long-range precision strikes and intense drone-led urban/trench fighting in the Donbas. The global "Venezuela crisis" is being utilized as a strategic information shield by the RF.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS RF forces are showing tactical flexibility in the Pokrovsk sector but face significant attrition. The use of guided missiles on complex routes (Sumy -> Poltava -> Cherkasy) suggests a high level of mission planning aimed at bypassing known AD clusters.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES UAF continues to demonstrate superior tactical drone integration. The successful interception of the 10:20Z missile suggests that even with the threat of "IR-dazzler" Shaheds (per daily report), the integrated air defense system (IADS) remains functional for ballistic/cruise threats.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT RF state media (TASS) has transitioned from "unconfirmed rumors" to "official MFA condemnation," indicating a top-down directive to maximize the diplomatic fallout of the Venezuela situation. Belief scores (0.32 combined) suggest a high probability of US kinetic action, which RF is now weaponizing in the IO domain.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• Decision Point: If UAVs currently over Dnipro (10:16Z) loiter or circle, expect a follow-on missile strike within 60-90 minutes.
• Tactical Warning: The KAB launches at 10:26Z suggest a renewed push toward Pokrovsk/Novoaleksandrovka in the next 1-2 hours.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//