U.S. Kinetic Intervention in Venezuela (Reported): Multiple reports indicate U.S. airstrikes against military and government targets in Caracas, including Fort Tiuna. President Trump has reportedly ordered these strikes (07:35Z, TASS/CBS News, MEDIUM).
Venezuela State of Emergency: Nicolás Maduro has signed a decree declaring a State of Emergency/Martial Law following reported "U.S. aggression" (07:39Z, TASS/Foreign Ministry, HIGH).
Dnipropetrovsk Tactical Strike: Russian "Vostok" Group conducted Grad MLRS strikes on Ukrainian strongholds in Velikomikhaylovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, reportedly disrupting UAF local defenses (07:34Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM).
UAV Incursions (South): Active Shahed/OWA-UAV sightings reported in southern Mykolaiv (heading North) and southern Dnipropetrovsk (targeting Aviatorske/Samar) (07:39Z - 07:54Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Unconfirmed High-Value Target (HVT) Strike: Pro-Russian sources claim the Venezuelan Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino López, was killed in a missile strike on his residence. This remains UNCONFIRMED and should be treated as LOW confidence (07:47Z, Voenkor Kotenok, LOW).
UA Leadership Transition Continuation: Sources indicate the "New Year's" personnel reshuffle will expand beyond HUR/OP, likely impacting the broader strategic and resource management architecture of the state (07:37Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Dnipropetrovsk): The focus has shifted from Zaporizhzhia toward the Dnipropetrovsk/Mykolaiv axes. RF is utilizing Grad MLRS for depth strikes (Velikomikhaylovka) and OWA-UAVs for targeting aviation infrastructure (Aviatorske).
Donbas/Pokrovsk Axis: No new tactical gains reported since the previous sitrep; RF units appear to be in a consolidation phase following the "march of flags" claims.
Northern Border (Sumy/Kharkiv): Weather continues to suppress high-tempo operations. No new data on the Hrabovske incursion force composition.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Kinetic Operations: RF is maintaining pressure on Ukrainian rear logistics in Dnipropetrovsk. The use of MLRS against strongholds suggests a transition from precision loitering munitions to volume-based suppression in this sector.
Aerial Threat: UAV activity remains consistent. The movement of drones toward Mykolaiv indicates a persistent effort to map and exhaust air defenses in the coastal/southern corridor.
Hybrid Distraction Exploitation: RF-aligned channels are aggressively amplifying the "Caracas Crisis" to portray the U.S. as an "imperialist aggressor." This is likely intended to weaken Western diplomatic standing and divert intelligence bandwidth from the Ukrainian theater.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C2 Resilience: Despite the "Caracas Crisis" and ongoing leadership transitions, UAF units like the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Galician Brigade remain operationally focused, emphasizing the use of captured "trophy" equipment to offset supply gaps (07:38Z, General Staff UA).
Leadership Continuity: The administration is signaling further structural changes. While this creates temporary uncertainty, it suggests a "total war" pivot in resource management.
Information environment / disinformation
Global Saturation: The Venezuelan conflict has effectively monopolized the global information space.
Narrative Framing: Russian sources (e.g., Alex Parker, TASS) are comparing U.S. helicopter operations in Caracas to RF operations in Hostomel (2022), attempting to draw a moral equivalency between the two conflicts.
Economic Indicators: Reports of Russian banks blocking large marketplace purchases (07:51Z) suggest either a preemptive move against domestic capital flight or an increase in internal security protocols due to the global instability.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will maintain the current tempo of UAV and MLRS strikes in the South to prevent UAF from redeploying units to the Pokrovsk sector. The "Venezuela Distraction" will be used to shield RF movement in the Sumy/Hrabovske area.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated RF offensive in the North (Sumy) occurs while international attention is entirely fixed on a potential U.S.-led regime change in Venezuela, leading to a delayed Western response to a Ukrainian frontline collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Venezuela Ground Truth: Determine if the Caracas events are a genuine U.S. kinetic operation or a massive, sophisticated hybrid deception (IO) designed to mask Russian or Chinese strategic moves.
Padrino López Status: Confirm the survivability of the Venezuelan Defense Minister; his death would signal a decapitation strike, confirming a high-intensity kinetic event.
Dnipropetrovsk Damage Assessment: Verify the extent of the defense disruption in Velikomikhaylovka following Russian MLRS strikes.
