Air Alert Termination: The priority air alert for the Southern Sector (issued 06:38Z) was officially cleared at 07:20Z. No kinetic impacts from this specific window have been confirmed (07:20Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Overnight Strike Volume: Official confirmation that RF launched 95 Shahed-series OWA-UAVs against Ukraine overnight. This correlates with previous reports of high-saturation efforts using IR-countermeasure variants (07:12Z, ASTRA/UAF, HIGH).
Weather Deterioration (Kharkiv): Regional authorities have issued a severe weather warning for Kharkiv Oblast. Expected ice, snow, and wind will likely degrade UAV operations and ground mobility for both sides (07:10Z, Kharkiv ODA, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Counter-Battery: Russian 305th Brigade (5th Army) claimed the destruction of a UAF M198 towed howitzer using a Lancet loitering munition. Video evidence suggests continued RF focus on degrading UAF artillery in the Zaporizhzhia sector (07:00Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
Pokrovsk Sector Status: Pro-Russian sources claim "victory" and the "march of flags" through the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, signaling a potential RF consolidation phase or a transition to urban clearing operations (07:04Z, Rybar, MEDIUM).
Hybrid Distraction (Venezuela): Reports of a "US landing" and "missile strikes" in Caracas have reached a fever pitch in the information space. Reports include a BK (ammunition) warehouse detonation and airstrikes near Iguérote Airport (07:05Z - 07:27Z, multiple sources, HIGH (as an IO event) / UNCONFIRMED (as a kinetic event)).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): High activity from RF Group "Vostok" units (305th Brigade, 291st Regiment). RF is utilizing Lancet loitering munitions to target UAF artillery (M198). Despite the clearance of the 07:20Z air alert, the sector remains under high surveillance pressure.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donbas): RF sources are framing the current position as a "decisive victory" in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. While UAF has not confirmed a withdrawal, the intensity of RF propaganda suggests they have secured key terrain or are pre-positioning for a 2026 operational offensive.
Northern Border (Kharkiv/Sumy): Deteriorating weather conditions are now a primary operational constraint. The Hrabovske incursion remains a "blind spot" due to low reporting, possibly exacerbated by the global focus on Venezuela.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: RF continues to integrate loitering munitions (Lancet) with reconnaissance-in-force by assault units like the "Nemets" unit (291st Regiment). This suggests a tightening of the sensor-to-shooter link on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Strategic Strike Pattern: The 95-drone wave demonstrates RF's ability to maintain high-volume saturation. The lack of reported ballistic follow-ups immediately after the alert suggests RF may be reassessing AD depletion before committing higher-value munitions.
Leadership Narrative: RF-aligned actors (e.g., Janus Putkonen) are now framing the UAF leadership transition (Budanov/Ivashchenko) as a foreign-directed "last stand" (MI6). This indicates an attempt to delegitimize the new command structure within the domestic and international pro-RF audience.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Unit Activity: SBS (Unmanned Systems Forces) "Wormbusters 414" (Madyar's group) remains active, likely conducting counter-drone and ISR operations to offset RF loitering munition pressure (06:58Z, Butusov Plus).
Strategic Continuity: National command demonstrated high C2 stability by maintaining the 09:00 (local) National Minute of Silence across all military and civil administrations, despite the active air alerts and leadership transitions.
Information environment / disinformation
The "Caracas Crisis" Narrative: This has become the primary global distraction. Both UA and RF channels are saturated with reports of US "Chinooks" and "Marine landings" in Venezuela.
Analytic Judgment: Whether the event is a genuine US operation or a massive coordinated disinformation campaign, it is successfully drawing bandwidth away from the Pokrovsk tactical crisis and the Hrabovske incursion.
Fundraising Activity: RF units (291st Regiment) are openly fundraising on Telegram, suggesting localized logistics gaps or "bottom-up" procurement needs for assault equipment despite state-level support (07:04Z, Dva Mayora).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will use the Kharkiv weather window to conduct low-visibility infantry rotations. Expect a temporary lull in drone activity in the North, shifted toward the South (Zaporizhzhia) where weather is more permissive.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF exploits the "Venezuela Distraction" and the weather-induced ISR degradation to launch a significant armored push from the Belgorod/Hrabovske axis, aiming to capitalize on divided international attention.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pokrovsk Reality Check: Urgent need for high-resolution imagery or ground truth to verify Rybar's "victory" claims in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.
M198 Attrition: Confirm the number of operational M198 howitzers remaining in the Zaporizhzhia sector following the 305th Brigade's claimed strikes.
Shahed IR Forensics: (P1 from Daily Report remains) Need technical recovery of downed Shaheds from the 95-unit wave to confirm IR dazzler specifications.
