Escalation of OWA-UAV Volume: The number of active "Shahed" units targeting Mykolaiv city increased to 10 concurrently during the 2301Z window (2301Z, Vanek, MEDIUM).
Tactical Vector Shift: RF drones diverted from the Varvarovka approach to the Namyv district, indicating an attempt to bypass established Mobile Fire Group (MFG) kill zones (2300Z, Vanek, MEDIUM).
Successful Interception Wave: UAF Air Defense/MFGs confirmed the neutralization of a 6-unit drone wave between 2310Z and 2315Z (2310Z, 2315Z, Vanek, HIGH).
Secondary Strike Axis: UAF Air Force reports a new wave of UAVs entering Mykolaiv Oblast from the Kherson direction, trending toward Novyi Buh (2322Z, Air Force, HIGH).
Persistent Kinetic Impact: Follow-on explosions confirmed within Mykolaiv city limits during the ongoing raid (2259Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The tactical focus remains centered on the Mykolaiv Urban Area, with secondary activity emerging toward the northern logistics hub of Novyi Buh. The battlefield geometry is defined by multi-vector aerial penetration. RF forces are utilizing the southern marshes and the Southern Bug river morphology to mask low-altitude drone approaches.
Key Terrain/Infrastucture under threat:
Zavodskyi District / ChSZ (Black Sea Shipyard): Primary target for the current wave (2321Z).
Namyv & Varvarovka: Key residential/industrial buffer zones being used to test AD density.
Novyi Buh: Potential targeting of rail/road junctions connecting Mykolaiv to central Ukraine.
Aerial Course of Action (COA): RF has transitioned to a "re-vectoring" tactic. After losing a full wave of 6 drones near Varvarovka (2315Z), the enemy immediately pushed 4 new units through Stara Bohdanivka (2320Z) to maintain pressure.
Diversionary Maneuvers: The shift toward Namyv (2300Z) suggests the enemy is monitoring UAF muzzle flashes or AD electronic signatures and attempting to exploit gaps in the western perimeter.
Electronic Warfare/Counter-Measures: While not explicitly mentioned in the last 30 minutes, the continued penetration despite high interception rates suggests the "IR-dazzler" equipped Shaheds mentioned in the Daily Report are likely being used to degrade MFG night-vision effectiveness.
Northern Sector (Sumy): RF "Sever" grouping is active in the information space, releasing footage of "Baba Yaga" (UAF heavy hexacopter) destruction (2303Z, Colonelcassad). This confirms the high intensity of drone/counter-drone operations in the Hrabovske/Sumy border sector.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking) (IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Performance: High efficiency noted in the 2310Z-2315Z window with a 100% interception rate for that specific sub-group (6 of 6 neutralized).
Posturing: MFGs are currently repositioning to cover the ChSZ and Namyv sectors in response to the vector shifts. Air Force assets are tracking the new southern wave from Kherson.
Readiness: No reported depletion of AD magazines, but the "saturation" tactic is clearly designed to induce fatigue and consumption of high-value munitions.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain) (IPB Step 4)
Delegitimization Campaign: RF state media (TASS) is amplifying Scott Ritter’s narrative framing Ukrainian defensive strikes as "suicidal terrorist attacks" (2311Z). This aims to erode international legal support for UAF's right to strike RF territory.
Tactical Propaganda: The "Sever" group's "Northern Wind" channel is aggressively promoting its success against UAF strike drones to maintain domestic morale amid reports of high RF losses in the border regions.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to cycle small waves (2-4 units) through the Stara Bohdanivka corridor for the next 2 hours. A split-strike profile is likely, with one group targeting the ChSZ shipyard and another bypassing the city toward Novyi Buh to fix regional AD assets.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Synchronized OWA-UAV arrivals from the South (Kharkiv/Kherson) and East, timed with a coastal-launched cruise missile strike once MFGs are occupied with low-altitude drone interceptions.
Timeline: 2330Z–0030Z: Expected impact/interception window for the Kherson-origin wave.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Novyi Buh Vector: Identify if the UAVs heading toward Novyi Buh (2322Z) are recon variants (Orlan-10/Supercam) or strike variants (Shahed).
BDA (ChSZ): Confirm if the "explosions" (2259Z) resulted in damage to shipyard infrastructure or if they were the result of successful AD interceptions.
Hrabovske Ground Truth: Continuous lack of ground-level kinetic updates from the Sumy incursion. High priority for SIGINT/ELINT to determine if RF heavy equipment is moving toward the P-45 highway.
