Active OWA-UAV Raid on Mykolaiv: A multi-wave Shahed attack is currently penetrating the Mykolaiv urban area from the south/southeast, targeting critical infrastructure (2230Z-2257Z, Air Force/Vanek, HIGH).
Kinetic Strike in Mykolaiv: At least one explosion confirmed within Mykolaiv city limits following drone penetration (2243Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Targeting of Energy Infrastructure: Real-time tactical reporting indicates RF drones are specifically targeting the power grid ("working by light") (2236Z, Vanek, MEDIUM).
RF Legal Maneuvers: RF authorities have re-issued a "wanted" notice for RDK Commander Denis Kapustin, likely as a domestic propaganda measure following recent tactical successes (2232Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
European Support Narrative Interdiction: RF state media is amplifying claims of Czech Republic aid exhaustion and supporting European right-wing movements to undermine EU-UA cohesion (2233Z, 2241Z, TASS/Operation Z, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational focus has expanded from the Donbas ground theater to a concentrated aerial assault on the Southern Sector (Mykolaiv). Weather conditions in the south remain conducive to drone operations despite the winter season. The battlefield geometry in the east (Konstantynivka) remains static but under high pressure. In the south, RF is utilizing the Mykolaiv approach to test Ukrainian Mobile Fire Group (MFG) density.
Aerial Operations (Mykolaiv): RF is employing a "saturation and pulse" tactic.
Wave 1: ~5 units (2232Z) targeting the Varvarovka area.
Wave 2: ~2 units (2241Z) following the same vector.
Wave 3: ~5 units (2246Z) entering from the south.
Wave 4: ~4 units (2257Z) maintaining the NW course.
Course of Action (COA): The concentration of flight paths toward the Zavodskyi district, Varvarovka, and the Black Sea Shipyard (ChSZ) area (2253Z) suggests a primary intent to degrade industrial-maritime infrastructure or localized energy distribution nodes.
Tactical Adaptation: Consistent with the Daily Intelligence Summary, these drones are likely utilizing IR-dazzlers to complicate night-vision interception by MFGs.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking) (IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Defense and MFGs are actively engaging targets. Confirmed "minus 1" at 2241Z and "minus 2" at 2256Z (Vanek).
Energy Defense: MFGs are under orders to "charge up" and prepare for strikes on the energy sector (2236Z).
Counter-Reconnaissance: UAF remains on high alert in the Sumy region following the Hrabovske incursion; however, no new kinetic updates have been reported in the last 30 minutes for that sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain) (IPB Step 4)
RF Disinformation: Russian channels (Operation Z) are weaponizing statements attributed to Andrej Babiš regarding the Czech Republic's inability to fund Ukraine (2233Z). This is a coordinated effort to project an image of collapsing Western support.
Political Subversion: TASS is amplifying Kirill Dmitriev’s rhetoric supporting European "right-wing forces" (2241Z), framing the RF as an ideological ally to EU nationalist movements.
Psychological Operations: The targeting of energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv at night is designed to maximize civilian psychological impact during winter.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to feed small waves of OWA-UAVs (2-4 units every 15-20 minutes) into the Mykolaiv sector for the next 3-4 hours to exhaust AD magazine depth and identify MFG positions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A transition from Shahed saturation to a coordinated Kalibr or Iskander-M strike on the "blinded" Mykolaiv energy nodes within the 0300Z-0600Z window.
Timeline: 2300Z–0200Z: Peak drone activity. 0400Z: Potential Damage Assessment (PDA) by RF via reconnaissance UAVs or satellite.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): Urgent requirement for ground-level confirmation of the explosion in Mykolaiv (2243Z). Identify if the target was the ChSZ shipyard or electrical substations.
TECH FORENSICS: Recovered debris from the Mykolaiv interceptions must be checked for the IR-dazzler modules identified in the 15:00Z Daily Report.
SUMY UPDATE: Lack of reporting from the Hrabovske sector in the last 2 hours. Requirement to confirm if the RF "Sever" Group has entrenched or if the incursion was a raid-only profile.
