Konstantynivka Sector Escalation: New tactical mapping and analysis indicate intensified RF pressure and updated battlefield geometry on the Konstantynivka axis (2221Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM).
Evacuation Order Claims (Dimitrov/Myrnohrad): RF sources claim to have captured UAF documents ordering an evacuation of Dimitrov (Myrnohrad). This remains UNCONFIRMED and is likely a psychological operation (2206Z, TASS/Poddubny, LOW).
Artillery Survivability Upgrades: Visual confirmation of UAF CAESAR 155mm SPHs equipped with improvised anti-drone "cages" and screens, operating in winter conditions (2203Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
RF Domestic Narrative Shift: Increasing focus within RF state media on "traditional values" and anti-alcohol campaigns, potentially linked to long-term demographic/manpower concerns (2217Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Xenophobic Information Operations: RF mil-bloggers are amplifying anti-migrant/religious tension narratives ("jihadist pilaf") to consolidate nationalist support (2227Z, Voenkor Kotenok, LOW).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo remains high across the Eastern theater. While the immediate air threat to Kyiv has passed, the focus has shifted to tactical ground maneuvers in the Donbas. Snow cover is confirmed across the northern and eastern sectors, impacting cross-country mobility and increasing the thermal signature of heated equipment/positions. The battle for the Konstantynivka logistics hub is entering a critical phase as RF forces attempt to exploit gains near the railway station.
Tactical Maneuver (Donbas): RF scouts are active in the Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) sector. The claim of capturing an evacuation order (2206Z) suggests RF units are close enough to engage in tactical reconnaissance or are utilizing captured forward positions to conduct information-psychological operations (PSYOP).
Information Operations: RF is dual-tracking its messaging:
Tactical: Inducing panic in Myrnohrad by signaling an imminent UAF withdrawal.
Strategic: Using nationalist rhetoric (2227Z) to distract from high casualty rates and framing domestic social issues (alcoholism) as a matter of state security (2217Z).
Capabilities: RF continues to prioritize the neutralization of UAF mobile artillery (CAESARs), necessitating the increased use of anti-drone protection by UAF units.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking) (IPB Step 3)
Artillery Posture: UAF continues to leverage high-mobility assets like the CAESAR 6x6. The addition of "anti-drone protection" (2203Z) indicates tactical adaptation to the RF's persistent loitering munition (Lancet/FPV) threat. These units are currently operating in snowy conditions, likely providing counter-battery support to the Konstantynivka/Pokrovsk sectors.
Defensive Posture (Myrnohrad/Dimitrov): Despite RF claims of evacuation, UAF remains in defensive positions. The reported "order" may be a standard contingency plan for civilian safety rather than a military retreat, though this requires further verification.
Command Continuity: The transition toward a "drone-first" doctrine under the proposed leadership of Mykhailo Fedorov is being tested as units on the ground integrate more survivability measures against RF aerial dominance.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain) (IPB Step 4)
RF Propaganda: TASS is amplifying domestic "moral" issues (Rybalchenko interview, 2217Z), likely to project an image of internal stability and "civilizational" focus while the military undergoes high-attrition operations.
Destabilization Narratives: The "jihadist" rhetoric from Kotenok (2227Z) points to internal RF friction regarding migrant labor and ethnic minorities in the military, a potential vulnerability for UAF to exploit in psychological counter-offensives.
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify ground assaults on Konstantynivka over the next 12 hours, using the psychological momentum of the "Dimitrov evacuation" rumors to demoralize forward UAF units.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RF breakthrough in the Konstantynivka railway sector, combined with a successful "Sever" Group offensive in Hrabovske (Sumy), forcing UAF to divert strategic reserves from the Donbas to the Northern border.
Timeline: 2300Z–0600Z: Likely window for RF reconnaissance-in-force operations in the Myrnohrad sector to test the veracity of "evacuation" rumors.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Verification of Evacuation Order: Urgent need to confirm with local civil-military administrations if any formal evacuation orders for Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) have been issued or if the TASS report is a complete fabrication.
Konstantynivka Map Analysis: Detailed assessment of the "Kotenok" map (2221Z) to identify specific point-of-contact shifts near the rail lines.
Winter Mobility: Assess the impact of deepening snow on the Renault Sherpa chassis (CAESAR) compared to tracked equivalents.
