Sector Loss/Contested (Kostiantynivka): RF forces claim to have seized Mayske (Donetsk Oblast), establishing a presence on the northern flanking approach to Kostiantynivka (1746Z, Два майора, MEDIUM).
Technological Threat Validation: Visual evidence confirms the integration of infrared (IR) dazzlers/projectors on "Geran" (Shahed) OWA-UAVs, specifically designed to neutralize Ukrainian night-vision and electro-optical sensors during terminal phases (1804Z, Операция Z, HIGH).
Leadership Transition Confirmed: Oleg Ivashchenko, formerly of the SVR, is confirmed as the new Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), succeeding Kyrylo Budanov (1757Z, Поддубный, HIGH).
Tactical Success in Southern Sector: UAF units (225th Assault Regiment) successfully repelled an RF small-unit probe in the Huliaipole sector, confirming continued high-intensity skirmishing along the Zaporizhzhia line (1747Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС; 1755Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
Diplomatic Friction (Czech Republic): Political instability in Prague has intensified as the opposition calls for the Speaker's resignation following an "anti-Ukrainian" New Year's address, potentially complicating future aid packages (1749Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
RF Information Denial: RF MoD has escalated its denial campaign regarding the Kharkiv "Persona" Mall strike, claiming the explosion was an internal UAF ammunition detonation based on manipulated video analysis (1739Z, 1754Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW/DISINFORMATION).
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk Sector (Kostiantynivka/Pokrovsk): The operational situation near Kostiantynivka is deteriorating. The reported RF capture of Mayske suggests a widening pincer movement intended to isolate the city from northern logistics routes. In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) direction, RF is deploying specialized UAV operator groups to enhance ISR and strike capabilities ahead of a suspected mechanized push (1803Z, Colonelcassad).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): While fighting continues in western Stepnohirsk (see previous SITREP), kinetic activity in Huliaipole confirms RF is testing UAF line density across multiple points. The tactical victory by the 225th Assault Regiment indicates UAF maintains effective local reserves.
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): Kinetic activity is currently overshadowed by a sophisticated RF Information Operation (IO) targeting the Kharkiv strike. RF is attempting to delegitimize UAF claims of civilian targeting to mitigate international condemnation.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of IR-dazzler equipped Shaheds represents a significant threat to UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs). This adaptation aims to force UAF into relying on acoustic or radar-based tracking, which are less precise than thermal/optical systems for small-target interception.
Force Employment: RF continues to utilize "small group" tactics (as seen in Huliaipole) to fix UAF forces while simultaneously moving specialized units (UAV operators) into the Pokrovsk sector to prepare the "deep" battlefield.
Command & Control: RF military bloggers are closely monitoring Ukrainian leadership changes, likely seeking to exploit any perceived transition gaps during the HUR/OP restructuring.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: UAF tactical units (225th Assault Regiment/Morok) demonstrate high-level combat proficiency in solo and small-unit actions, effectively managing RF infantry probes in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Force Generation: The capture of a Russian tank crewman from the 19th Tank Regiment (1744Z, Оперативний ЗСУ) provides valuable tactical intelligence regarding RF unit morale and current armor dispositions in the eastern theatre.
Strategic Continuity: Despite leadership shifts, HUR operations remain focused on deep-strike capabilities, though the transition period under Ivashchenko will require close monitoring for C2 stability.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Narrative Contestation: The RF "Self-Shelling" narrative regarding Kharkiv is being amplified through both official (TASS) and "gray" (Alex Parker/Colonelcassad) channels. This coordinated effort suggests the Kharkiv strike likely hit a target that RF now realizes is a significant PR liability or they are masking the use of a new weapon system.
European Support Fatigue: The Czech political crisis and earlier German media reports regarding personnel repatriation indicate a coordinated RF effort to amplify European "support fatigue" narratives during the winter months.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will launch a mixed wave of Shaheds (with IR dazzlers) and cruise missiles tonight, specifically targeting AD nodes identified during previous strikes in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF leverages the foothold in Mayske to launch a direct mechanized assault on the northern outskirts of Kostiantynivka, threatening to sever the primary GLOC to Toretsk.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Mayske Verification: Immediate drone/satellite confirmation of the FLOT in Mayske to determine the depth of the RF penetration.
IR Dazzler Technical Forensics: Need for recovered components of the new Shahed IR modules to determine if they are reactive (laser-warning) or active (continuous strobe) systems.
Kostiantynivka Flank Strength: Assess the availability of UAF mechanized reserves to counter the northern pincer near Mayske.
