Urban Breach in Stepnohirsk: Russian Federation (RF) forces have penetrated the western sector of Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Intense street-to-street fighting is ongoing as Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) conduct clearing operations (1730Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
Expansion of Pokrovsk Offensive: RF "Center" Group (Group 'O') has expanded operations toward Myrnohrad and claims to be engaging near or across the Dnipropetrovsk regional border (1707Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
RF Defensive Information Operation (Kharkiv): The Russian MoD has launched a multi-channel denial campaign regarding the Kharkiv Iskander strike, claiming the explosion at the "Persona" Mall was a UAF secondary detonation intended to distract from events in Horly (1706Z-1711Z, ТАСС, LOW/DISINFORMATION).
Shift in Indian Energy Policy: India has reportedly tightened controls on Russian oil imports following negotiations with the US, potentially impacting RF revenue streams (1709Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
European Aid Friction: Czech Prime Minister Babiš stated Prague is not ready to guarantee sovereign loans for Ukraine despite EU-level support; concurrently, German media (Münchner Merkur) is discussing the repatriation of Ukrainian men for defense (1724Z, 1727Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM).
Strategic Financial Support: PM Shmyhal confirmed Ukraine received $45bn in international security assistance in 2025, a 30% year-on-year increase (1724Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The tactical crisis has escalated from Huliaipole to Stepnohirsk. The RF breach into the western outskirts of Stepnohirsk represents a significant threat to the defensive line protecting the approaches to Zaporizhzhia city. UAF forces are currently engaged in close-quarters battle (CQB) to contain the breakthrough.
Pokrovsk/Donetsk Sector: RF is employing "artillery carousel" tactics using Grad MLRS to provide continuous suppression of UAF fortifications (1726Z, MoD Russia). The threat has evolved from a localized push to a broader operational effort aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk regional border, specifically targeting the Myrnohrad axis.
Slovyansk Sector: Night artillery operations by the RF "Wild Division" (Dikaya Diviziya) continue to target UAF forward positions, likely serving as a fixing operation to prevent reinforcement of the Pokrovsk sector.
Northern Sector (Kharkiv): Kinetic activity remains high, but the primary theater has shifted to the information domain as RF attempts to mask the impact of its recent ballistic strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA): RF is successfully utilizing a "combined arms pressure" model—using elite high-aggression units (Wild Division/Zapad-Akhmat) for urban penetration while maintaining high-volume indirect fire (Grad carousels) to degrade UAF sustainment.
Logistics and Tactics: The use of "artillery carousels" suggests a stabilized ammunition supply on the Pokrovsk axis, despite UAF deep strikes. The move toward the Dnipropetrovsk border indicates an intent to seize the initiative before winter weather further restricts maneuver.
Adaptation: RF is increasingly coupling tactical gains (Stepnohirsk breach) with rapid-response information operations to muddy the waters regarding civilian casualties and strike targets.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Urban Combat: UAF units are demonstrating high tactical proficiency in western Stepnohirsk, utilizing video-confirmed clearing tactics to mitigate the RF breach.
Strategic Resilience: The confirmation of $45bn in 2025 aid provides a baseline for continued 2026 operations, though current friction with the Czech Republic regarding loan guarantees may impact mid-term procurement cycles.
Personnel Management: Growing discussions in Germany regarding the return of Ukrainian nationals for military service may signal a future shift in UAF force generation capacity, though this remains a diplomatic sensitivity.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Disinformation Proliferation: RF MoD is highly active in attempting to frame the Kharkiv strike as "self-shelling" or a "provocation." This narrative is being pushed aggressively to Western-facing channels to erode the justification for continued AD support.
Leadership Friction: There is conflicting information regarding Kyrylo Budanov’s transition to the Office of the President. While previously reported as confirmed, local Ukrainian monitors now label specific announcements as "factually incorrect" (1710Z, DeepState). This indicates either an internal security leak or a targeted Russian deception operation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will intensify MLRS pressure on Myrnohrad to exploit the claimed advance toward the Dnipropetrovsk border. Street fighting in Stepnohirsk will continue with high intensity.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF successfully establishes a permanent foothold in Stepnohirsk and leverages it to launch a mechanized thrust toward the P-45 or P-08 highways, threatening the southern GLOCs to the Donbas.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Dnipropetrovsk Border Status: Urgent need for SIGINT/IMINT to verify RF presence near or across the Dnipropetrovsk regional border (Pokrovsk axis).
Stepnohirsk Control Map: Delineate the exact Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT) in western Stepnohirsk to determine if the RF breach is a localized raid or a persistent occupation.
Command Clarification: Confirm the current operational status and authorities of Kyrylo Budanov to ensure C2 continuity.
