Strategic Leadership: Kyrylo Budanov has publicly confirmed his acceptance of the appointment as Head of the Office of the President (1401Z, Два майора, HIGH).
Shahed Technical Evolution: Russian sources confirm the integration of infrared (IR) countermeasure elements on "Geran" (Shahed) OWA-UAVs to degrade Ukrainian electro-optical targeting systems (1349Z, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH).
Information Operation Surge: A coordinated RF narrative regarding an alleged UAF strike in Khorly (Kherson) has escalated, involving "spontaneous" memorials in Khorly and occupied Donetsk, and the announcement of state compensation for victims (1337Z-1347Z, TASS/Colonelcassad/Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH).
Vovchansk Urban Assault: RF units, including "Zapad-AKHMAT" and the 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade, are engaged in close-quarters combat in the residential sectors of Vovchanski Khutory (1350Z, Kadyrov_95, MEDIUM).
Dobropillia Axis Activation: RF 150th Division has initiated localized offensive operations targeting UAF infantry and fire points near Dobropillia (1348Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
Casualty Escalation (Kharkiv): Confirmed casualties from the Iskander strikes on Kharkiv have risen to 16 civilians; RF sources are now claiming an "orphanage" was hit, likely a counter-accusation to mask military targeting (1342Z, 1405Z, RBK-UA/Alex Parker Returns, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Northern Axis: High-intensity combat persists in Vovchansk. RF is utilizing Chechen "Akhmat" units for urban clearing operations. Aerial threats remain high, with OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) currently detected moving toward Savyntsi and Balakliia (1404Z).
Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Dobropillia): The RF 150th Division is attempting to expand the salient toward Dobropillia. This aligns with previous daily reports of RF attempts to bypass stalled urban fights in Myrnohrad by pushing the Dobropillia flank.
Konstantynivka Sector: Heavy fighting continues near the railway station. RF milbloggers have released footage claiming tactical progress, though the exact Line of Contact (LOC) remains fluid (1404Z).
Zaporizhzhia Sector: RF drone operators (57th and 60th Brigades) are actively targeting UAF light skin vehicles and pickups along supply routes ("Road of Rage"). Concurrently, a wave of Shahed UAVs is approaching Zaporizhzhia city from the south (1339Z, 1400Z).
Dnipropetrovsk: RF tactical aviation has launched a new wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the region (1400Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The RF is maintaining a high operational tempo by combining localized ground assaults (Dobropillia/Vovchansk) with a sustained aerial bombardment campaign. The use of KABs on Dnipropetrovsk suggests a widening of the strike zone beyond the immediate FEBA (Forward Edge of Battle Area).
Tactical Adaptation: The formal acknowledgement by RF sources of IR modifications to Shahed UAVs indicates these units are now being deployed at scale. This poses a direct threat to UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) using thermal/IR optics for night-time interception.
Logistics/Sustainment: Continued high activity at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (referenced in 24h context) supports the ongoing high volume of Iskander and KAB strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF units are currently engaged in high-intensity defensive operations in Vovchansk and the Dobropillia salient.
Command Transition: The formalization of Budanov’s move to the Office of the President suggests a shift toward a more centralized "war cabinet" structure, potentially prioritizing deep-strike and intelligence-led kinetic operations.
Resilience: Zaporizhzhia ODA continues to emphasize civil-sector stability (digital education initiatives) despite the proximity of frontline combat and ongoing UAV/missile threats.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Khorly Massacre" Narrative: The RF is aggressively promoting the Khorly incident as a "terrorist act" to justify current and future saturation strikes. The speed of memorial organization and state compensation announcements suggests a pre-planned or rapidly exploited IO theme.
Budanov Delegitimization: RF state media (TASS) has begun framing Budanov’s new role within the context of existing Russian criminal cases against him, aiming to delegitimize the Ukrainian executive office internationally.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued OWA-UAV (Shahed) ingress into Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. RF will likely maintain KAB pressure on Dnipropetrovsk to disrupt the movement of UAF reserves toward the Pokrovsk/Dobropillia axis.
MDCOA: A coordinated night strike (missile/UAV) utilizing the "Khorly" incident as a pretext, specifically targeting Kyiv or energy infrastructure, coinciding with the arrival of the Shahed wave currently in transit.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Dobropillia Penetration Depth: Determine if the RF 150th Division has secured permanent footholds in the outskirts of Dobropillia or if these are hit-and-run probing attacks.
IR Modification Effectiveness: Immediate feedback required from MFGs in Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv on the effectiveness of IR-equipped Shaheds against current thermal sights.
Khorly Forensics: (Unchanged) Verification of the explosion type in Khorly to counter the RF "retaliation" narrative.
