BOHUSLAVKA SEIZURE (CLAIMED): Pro-Russian sources (Poddubny) now explicitly claim the "liberation" of Bohuslavka in the Kupyansk/Oskil sector, corroborating earlier reports (1021Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM).
POKROVSK/GRYSHYNE BUILDUP: UAF 7th Air Assault (DSHV) Corps reports RF forces are accumulating significant manpower and equipment for a renewed assault on Hryshyne, indicating a potential attempt to flank Pokrovsk from the west (1032Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA DRONE STRIKE: Local authorities confirmed a drone strike on the city of Zaporizhzhia; air raid alerts have since been cleared (1008Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
MYRNOHRAD CAPTIVITY CLAIM: Pro-Russian channels are circulating footage allegedly showing a captured UAF reconnaissance group in Myrnohrad. This suggests RF forces are conducting aggressive counter-reconnaissance operations in the contested city center (1017Z, Operatsia Z, LOW).
KYIV HEATING DISRUPTION: Maintenance/repairs on heating networks have forced temporary outages in the Rusanivka and Berezniaky neighborhoods. Given the current sub-zero temperatures, this increases civilian vulnerability (1016Z, RBC-UA, HIGH).
KHORLY CASUALTY NARRATIVE: RF state media continues to amplify casualty figures from the "Khorly incident," naming specific civilian victims to sustain the "retaliation" pretext for ongoing aerial strikes (1006Z, TASS, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kupyansk/Lyman):
Oskil Line: The reported capture of Bohuslavka suggests RF forces have successfully expanded their foothold on the eastern bank of the Oskil River. This movement threatens to bisect UAF defensive lines between Kupyansk and Borova.
Lozova Vector: Shahed-type UAVs moving toward Lozova (identified at 0939Z) remain an active threat to regional rail logistics.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk/Hryshyne: RF is transitioning from pure urban combat in Pokrovsk to a multi-pronged assault. The accumulation of forces in Hryshyne suggests an intent to sever the T0504 highway further west, attempting an operational encirclement of the Pokrovsk garrison.
Myrnohrad: Remains a "Grey Zone." The claim of captured UAF "flag-planters" indicates RF is prioritizing the elimination of UAF symbolic presence and reconnaissance elements within the city.
Active Defense: The 25th Separate Sicheslav Airborne Assault Brigade (DSHV) remains engaged, conducting successful localized counter-battery and drone strikes against RF armored assets (1033Z, DSHV).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia City: Targeted by OWA-UAVs (drones). Damage assessments are pending, but the strike follows the pattern of RF "pathfinder" drones testing AD response times ahead of larger missile waves.
Kherson (Khorly): RF maintains heavy information focus on the Khorly strike, using it to justify kinetic operations in the southern theater.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RF is shifting focus toward Hryshyne to bypass the high-attrition urban center of Pokrovsk. This indicates a realization that street-to-street fighting is slowing their momentum.
Information Operations: RF sources (Kotsnews, 1011Z) are now pre-emptively accusing Ukraine of planning "Christmas Terror Attacks" inside Russia. This is a classic "reflexive control" tactic to justify anticipated RF strikes on civilian targets during the Jan 6-7 period.
Logistics: Continuous UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia and the Danube region (Vylkove) are designed to disrupt the UAF's ability to shift reserves to the Pokrovsk-Hryshyne axis.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resolve: New polling data (KIIS) indicates a high level of public resolve, with a vast majority of Ukrainians opposing territorial concessions (1029Z, RBC-UA). This supports continued high morale despite tactical pressure in the Donbas.
Precision Strikes: DSHV units continue to utilize FPV and modified munitions to degrade RF concentration areas, specifically targeting equipment staging for the Hryshyne assault.
Critical Infrastructure: Kyiv municipal authorities are actively repairing energy/heating infrastructure, likely under pressure from the ripple effects of previous RF saturation strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
"Retaliation" Escalation: The heavy messaging surrounding the Khorly victims and the alleged Myrnohrad captives is intended to project an image of RF tactical dominance and moral high ground to domestic audiences.
Financial Stability: Small fluctuations in the USD exchange rate (1015Z, RBC-UA) are being monitored but do not currently indicate war-induced panic in the domestic financial sector.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will launch a localized mechanized assault toward Hryshyne using the forces currently accumulating. Concurrently, a "Christmas" themed missile/UAV strike is highly likely, targeting the Kyiv energy ring and Zaporizhzhia logistics.
MDCOA: RF achieves a breakthrough at Hryshyne, cutting the T0504 highway and forcing an immediate UAF withdrawal from Pokrovsk city center to avoid encirclement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Hryshyne Force Composition: Identify the specific RF units (brigade/regiment level) accumulating for the Hryshyne assault to determine if these are fresh reserves or depleted units from the Pokrovsk front.
Bohuslavka Verification: Immediate IMINT required to confirm RF presence in Bohuslavka city center and the status of the Oskil river crossings.
Zaporizhzhia BDA: Battle Damage Assessment of the 1008Z drone strike; determine if the target was industrial, military, or energy-related.
