US STATE DEPT ADVISORY: The US Department of State has issued an urgent directive advising US citizens to depart the Russian Federation immediately, citing high risks (Tsaplienko/FOX News, 0909Z, HIGH).
KHERSON ENERGY STRIKE: A critical thermal power generation facility in Kherson is currently under RF bombardment. Local authorities report likely interruptions to heating services (Kherson ODA/RBC-UA, 0922Z, HIGH).
RF WEEKLY SUMMARY: The Russian MoD claims the "liberation" of nine settlements over the past seven days and reports repelling 16 Ukrainian counter-attacks in the Kupyansk (Kharkiv) sector (TASS, 0905Z, 0908Z, MEDIUM).
POKROVSK DEFENSIVE LINE: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms that high-quality engineering fortifications in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector are effectively neutralizing RF numerical superiority (GS AFU, 0908Z, HIGH).
BLACK SEA AERIAL THREAT: OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) detected in the Black Sea on a flight path toward Yuzhne (Odesa Oblast) (ZSU AF, 0926Z, HIGH).
KHORLY ATTRIBUTION: Pro-Russian sources have escalated the Khorly strike narrative, specifically accusing the UAF "Magyar’s Birds" (414th Strike UAV Regiment) of conducting the "terrorist attack" (Dnevnik Desantnika, 0933Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupyansk):
Kupyansk: RF MoD reports high-intensity activity with 16 UAF attacks allegedly repelled. This confirms the Kupyansk sector remains a primary RF objective for the January offensive (TASS, 0908Z).
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad: UAF leadership is emphasizing the role of static "engineering barriers" over mobile defense. This suggests a transition to a high-attrition defensive posture designed to stall the RF advance toward the Dnipro oblast border (GS AFU, 0908Z).
Dnipropetrovsk Border: Tracking of OWA-UAVs at the junction of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts indicates RF is searching for gaps in the regional AD umbrella (ZSU AF, 0923Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Kherson City: Direct kinetic targeting of "heat generation" infrastructure (0922Z) during peak winter temperatures indicates a deliberate RF effort to trigger a localized humanitarian crisis and degrade civilian morale.
Zaporizhzhia: Tactical aviation (Su-34/35) launched a fresh wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the oblast (ZSU AF, 0931Z).
Black Sea/Odesa: Ingress of UAVs from the sea toward Yuzhne suggests a multi-vector strike intended to bypass land-based early warning systems (ZSU AF, 0926Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Kinetic Operations: The RF MoD confirmed the use of "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles in its recent strike packages (Colonelcassad, 0915Z). This corroborates the previous daily report regarding the escalation of high-precision munition usage against Ukrainian energy and military-industrial targets.
Tactical Shifts: RF is increasingly utilizing "retaliation" rhetoric (citing Khorly/Tarasovka) to justify the targeting of civilian heating infrastructure, as seen in the Kherson strike (0932Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Engineering: Extensive fortification work in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration is the primary operational focus, successfully maintaining the "Grey Zone" status reported in previous updates.
Active Defense: UAF continues counter-attacks in the Kupyansk sector to prevent RF forces from consolidating gains on the Oskil River (TASS, 0908Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Targeting "Magyar's Birds": The specific naming of the 414th Strike UAV Regiment in the Khorly incident (0933Z) is likely an attempt to justify future RF strikes on UAF drone command centers or to delegitimize one of Ukraine's most effective tactical units.
US Internal Divisions: Russian channels are amplifying quotes from Michael Flynn (0928Z) and framing NYT reports (0916Z) to project a narrative of fading Western support and an "endless war" scenario for UAF soldiers.
Regional Influence: Pro-Russian actors are promoting a "reinforcement" of Russian influence in Georgia, framing it as a model for "sovereign" transition away from the West (Rybar, 0911Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed and KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odesa. The ingress of UAVs from the Black Sea suggests Odesa/Yuzhne will be the focus of the next 3-6 hours.
MDCOA: Following the US State Dept warning, there is an increased probability of a significant kinetic event in Russian territory (potentially a UAF deep strike or an RF false flag) that could serve as the catalyst for the "massive" missile wave predicted in the previous daily report.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
US STATE DEPT MOTIVATION: Determine if the "leave Russia" advisory is based on specific intelligence regarding internal Russian instability or an imminent, unprecedented UAF strike on Moscow/Border regions.
KHERSON BDA: Assess the level of damage to the Kherson thermal plant; determine if the heating grid is modular or if the entire sector faces a total winter outage.
KUPYANSK POSSESSION: Verify the "9 settlements" claim by RF MoD; identify if these are minor tactical gains in the grey zone or significant breaches of the primary defensive line.
