MOSCOW AIRSPACE CLOSURE: Domodedovo Airport is temporarily closed by Rosaviatsiya following the interception of another UAV targeting Moscow (Sobyanin, 0851Z; Novosti Moskvy, 0846Z, HIGH).
MASSIVE FRONTLINE KINETIC ACTIVITY: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GS AFU) reports simultaneous clashes across ten distinct directions, including Kharkiv, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and Kherson (GS AFU, 0900Z-0901Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA AERIAL ASSAULT: Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against Zaporizhzhia oblast targets following ongoing OWA-UAV alerts (Zaporizhzhia ODA, 0841Z, HIGH).
KHORLY CASUALTY ESCALATION: Pro-Russian sources claim the death toll from the alleged UAF strike in Khorly (Kherson) has risen to 27, including two children (Dnevnik Desantnika, 0846Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
DIPLOMATIC ALIGNMENT: Palestinian authorities have officially condemned the alleged Ukrainian attack on Putin's residence, signaling a coordinated diplomatic effort to frame Ukraine as a "terrorist state" (TASS, 0900Z, MEDIUM).
U.S. GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT: Russian state and affiliated media are heavily saturating the information space with Donald Trump’s threats toward Iran, likely intended to suggest a pivot of U.S. military attention away from Eastern Europe (Alex Parker, 0838Z; Kotenok, 0842Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Vovchansk/Starytsya: Active clashes reported. RF continues airstrikes on Lisne (GS AFU, 0900Z).
Weather: Meteorological reports confirm winter conditions have fully set in for the Kyiv/Northern regions, which will impact cross-country mobility and drone battery life (RBC-UA, 0855Z).
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Lyman Direction: High-intensity engagements near Novovodyane, Myrne, Kolodyazi, Zarichne, and Yampil (GS AFU, 0900Z).
Sloviansk/Kostiantynivka: Battles reported near Siversk, Sakko and Vantsetti, and Yablunivka. This suggests the RF is attempting to fix UAF forces across the entire arc to prevent reinforcement of the Pokrovsk sector (GS AFU, 0901Z).
Pokrovsk Sector: Combat continues near Rodynske, Pokrovsk, and Udachne. RF is maintaining a broad-front pressure to exploit any gaps in the "grey zone" around Myrnohrad (GS AFU, 0901Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: RF aviation conducted airstrikes on Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, and Varvarivka (GS AFU, 0900Z). KAB launches were specifically noted at 0841Z (ZSU AF).
Huliaipole: Clashes reported toward Zelene, indicating an RF attempt to widen the salient (GS AFU, 0901Z).
Kherson: Engagement reported near the Antonivskiy bridge. RF continues airstrikes on Prydniprovske (GS AFU, 0901Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: RF is utilizing a "pathfinder" drone strategy, with UAVs currently moving west through eastern Dnipropetrovsk to map UAF air defense responses before the next cruise missile wave (ZSU AF, 0840Z).
Strategic Aviation: Closing Moscow airspace (Domodedovo) indicates that despite RF "interceptions," UAF deep-strike capabilities are successfully disrupting civilian and military logistics in the RF capital (0846Z).
Casualty Narratives: The rapid "increase" in Khorly casualties (from initial reports to 27) is being used to build a domestic Russian justification for the "massive provocation" warned of by SZRU.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Drone Operations: "Magyar's Birds" (414th Strike UAV Regiment) remains highly active despite RF targeting narratives, releasing footage of successful winter strikes against Russian mechanized/assault units (Butusov Plus, 0902Z).
Air Defense: Successfully engaging UAVs over Moscow and maintaining alerts over Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk.
Internal Morale: The Ukrainian government is implementing social support measures (50k UAH child benefit) to maintain civil stability during the winter offensive (RBC-UA, 0839Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Terrorist State" Framing: Russian media is leveraging the Khorly incident and an alleged "attack on Putin's residence" (corroborated by TASS/Palestine statement) to build a global narrative of Ukrainian state-sponsored terrorism.
US Domestic Politics: Russian channels are amplifying reports that a former Kamala Harris advisor urged Zelenskyy to reject a "Trump peace plan," aiming to portray the UAF leadership as puppets of "warmongering" US factions (Tsaplienko, 0842Z).
Fundraising Fatigue: Major UA volunteer channels (Sternenko) report a slowdown in donations, a critical indicator for UAF procurement of FPV drones and tactical equipment (0838Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB and OWA-UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. RF will likely launch a localized ground push in the Lyman or Pokrovsk sectors to coincide with the ongoing air raid distractions.
MDCOA: A kinetic strike on a high-value symbolic target in Kyiv or a "false flag" in occupied territories (as per SZRU warning) to provide the final pretext for a massive missile salvo tonight.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA MOSCOW: Confirm the exact location of the UAV interception near Moscow to determine if the target was Domodedovo or a nearby military C2 node.
KHORLY FORENSICS: Verification of the 27 casualties; determine if this was a legitimate UAF strike on a military target with collateral damage or a staged RF event.
IRAN OVERLAP: Monitor for any movement of RF assets (e.g., AD systems or personnel) that suggests a genuine shift in focus or cooperation with Iran, or if the "Trump/Iran" narrative is purely an IO distraction.
