Situation Report

Situation Update (0705Z 02 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• UAV INTERCEPTION DATA: UAF General Staff confirms 86 of 116 Russian OWA-UAVs were shot down or suppressed via EW during the overnight wave (0639Z, UAF GS, HIGH).
• NEW AERIAL THREAT: A new UAV wave has been detected in the Black Sea, currently on a vector toward Zatoka, Odesa region (0658Z, UAF AF, MEDIUM).
• RF TACTICAL ADVANCE (UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim an expansion of the "buffer zone" and unspecified advancements in the Southern Sector (0648Z, Kotsnews, LOW).
• UAF FORCE REPOSITIONING (CLAIMED): Reports indicate the UAF "Arei" regiment, previously active in the Kursk region, has been redeployed to the Sumy sector (0649Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW).
• TARGETED STRIKE ON MEDICAL PERSONNEL: RF forces attacked an ambulance brigade in Kherson, resulting in at least one casualty (0653Z, RBC-UA, HIGH).
• HARASSING STRIKES (KHARKIV): Kharkiv city and seven regional settlements were targeted by RF strikes over the last 24h (0636Z, Kharkiv RMA, HIGH).

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)

Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain: The operational focus remains on the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk axes, but a significant shift in attention is noted toward the Sumy/Kharkiv border regions. The "buffer zone" expansion mentioned by RF sources (0648Z) likely refers to the contested areas north of Kharkiv and potentially the Vovchansk salient.

Weather and Environmental Factors: Current visibility remains sufficient for OWA-UAV and tactical drone operations. The detection of new UAVs in the Black Sea (0658Z) indicates the RF is utilizing maritime corridors to bypass terrestrial AD density in the south.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

Capabilities, Intentions, and COA:

• Technological Adaptation: The RF 25th Army (Zapad Group) is reportedly deploying specialized drone technology, potentially EW-resistant fiber-optic tethered systems, to maintain reconnaissance superiority (0701Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
• Sustainment Issues: Public fundraising appeals for RF assault troops on the Zaporizhzhia front (0702Z) suggest persistent gaps in the official RU MoD logistics chain for non-standard equipment and assault-unit-specific needs.
• Tactical Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will likely use the reported "buffer zone" expansion to establish new firing positions for long-range tube artillery to further suppress Kharkiv’s logistical nodes.

Logistics and Sustainment: The massive spike in the 260th GRAU Arsenal's activity (Daily Report context) combined with the ongoing UAV waves suggests a multi-day "throttled" offensive rather than a single-night event.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

Force Posture and Readiness:

• Redeployment: The alleged movement of the "Arei" regiment to Sumy (0649Z) may indicate a UAF effort to reinforce the northern border against the anticipated January offensive mentioned in previous daily reports.
• Defensive Success: UAF Air Force maintains a ~74% interception rate against large-scale UAV saturation (0639Z), though "leakers" continue to impact localized logistics (Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

Propaganda and Disinformation:

• Khorly Narrative Hardening: RF authorities are now claiming "Western/Ukrainian hackers" attacked the victim list website (0645Z) to disrupt family notifications. This is likely a pivot to frame UAF as "cruel" and justifies the continued "retaliation" strikes.
• Regional Destabilization: Rybar is aggressively pushing a narrative of "political repression" in Gagauzia, Moldova (0703Z). This suggests the RF is preparing the cognitive space for hybrid interference in Moldova to distract Western/NATO attention from the Ukrainian theater.
• National Morale: UAF and official government channels are conducting a synchronized "Minute of Silence" (0657Z-0700Z) to reinforce national unity and resilience following the New Year strikes.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):

• Southern Sector: RF will attempt to consolidate "significant territory" claims in Zaporizhzhia (CNN/Kotsnews reports) with localized mechanized pushes toward the Stepnohirsk-Huliaipole line.
• Odesa/Maritime: The UAVs approaching Zatoka (0658Z) will likely attempt to strike bridge infrastructure or grain-related logistics to further the economic attrition of the "southern corridor."

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):

• RF forces capitalize on the "Arei" regiment’s redeployment by launching a high-intensity mechanized breakthrough in the Sumy region before the unit can fully establish defensive positions, aiming to create a new operational axis.

6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)

• Kinetic: Expect missile or KAB strikes in the Kharkiv and Sumy sectors following the reported "buffer zone" movements.
• Maritime: High probability of air raid alerts for Odesa and Mykolaiv as Black Sea-based UAVs reach landfall.

7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. REDEPLOYMENT VERIFICATION: Confirm the location and status of the "Arei" regiment via SIGINT or visual confirmation to determine if the Sumy reinforcement is a feint or a genuine defensive shift.
2. "BUFFER ZONE" EXTENT: Identify the specific coordinates of the RF "expansion" mentioned by Kotsnews (0648Z).
3. TECH EXPLOITATION: Obtain technical specifications of the 25th Army's "specialized drones" to update EW jamming profiles.
4. ZATOKA THREAT: Monitor the BDA of the Zatoka vector UAVs to assess if the target is civilian infrastructure or Western GLOCs.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//