Situation Report

Situation Update (0635Z 02 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• OVERNIGHT UAV TOTALS (NATIONAL): UAF Air Force confirms RF launched 116 OWA-UAVs (including ~70 Shaheds); 86 were shot down or suppressed via EW (0631Z, UAF AF, HIGH).
• KHORLY CASUALTY FINALIZATION: RF Investigative Committee confirms 27 fatalities, including 2 children, following the strike on a hotel/cafe in Khorly, Kherson (0613Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH confidence in count).
• TACTICAL LOSS (RF AD): UAF "Madyar" unit reports and provides footage of the destruction of two high-value Russian air defense systems (0628Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
• FRONT-LINE PRESSURE (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Reports citing international media (CNN) indicate "extreme pressure" on UAF in the south, with RF forces allegedly seizing significant territory due to UAF manpower shortages (0632Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
• OCCUPATION LEADERSHIP ARREST: Alexander Zinchenko, "Deputy Governor" of occupied Zaporizhzhia, has been arrested in Moscow on fraud charges (0622Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
• BATTLEFIELD DAMAGE (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Local authorities confirm damage to Zaporizhzhia city and suburbs following the overnight drone wave (0620Z, Zaporizhzhia RMA, HIGH).

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)

Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain: The operational focus remains the Zaporizhzhia Sector. The termination of the air raid alert at 0606Z suggests the primary overnight UAV wave has concluded. However, the geographic focus of BDA in Zaporizhzhia city and suburbs (0620Z) indicates the RF is prioritizing the degradation of the logistics hub supporting the Stepnohirsk-Huliaipole line.

Weather and Environmental Factors: Current conditions support continued OWA-UAV operations and tactical aviation (KAB strikes). No significant weather-driven degradation of visibility or mobility is reported, facilitating the RF "maneuver-based" pressure reported in the previous sitrep.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

Capabilities, Intentions, and COA:

• Aerial Attrition: The launch of 116 UAVs demonstrates sustained RF capacity for high-volume saturation. While 74% were neutralized, the 30 "leakers" are sufficient to conduct meaningful BDA on energy and logistics targets.
• Internal Friction: The arrest of "Deputy Governor" Zinchenko in Moscow suggests a possible purge of occupation authorities or significant internal mismanagement/corruption within the "Vostok" group's administrative rear.
• Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will likely exploit the "Khorly Massacre" narrative (27 dead) throughout the 0800Z-1800Z window to justify a follow-on missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) targeting "decision-making centers" or energy infrastructure.

Logistics and Sustainment:

• RF Economy: UAF-linked channels highlight 0.1% GDP growth in RF (0623Z), attempting to signal long-term sustainment issues for the RF war machine. However, immediate munitions availability remains high based on the 116-drone wave.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

Force Posture and Readiness:

• Manpower Constraints: Corroboration of "acute personnel shortages" (0632Z) suggests UAF defensive lines in Zaporizhzhia are brittle. This aligns with previous reports of elite units (Da Vinci Wolves) being rotated into high-pressure zones to stabilize the front.
• Tactical Success: The destruction of two RF air defense systems (0628Z) indicates UAF retains local "reconnaissance-strike" superiority in specific sectors, likely using FPV or high-precision munitions to blind RF units ahead of potential local counter-attacks.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

Propaganda and Disinformation:

• The Khorly Narrative: RF sources are aggressively pushing a "retaliation" theme. TASS reports "Western hackers" attacked the victim list website (0606Z/0623Z), a classic hybrid move to link the tactical event to broader NATO involvement.
• "Self-Inflicted" Claims: RF mil-bloggers (Kotsnews, 0608Z) are circulating video of residential damage in Kherson claiming UAF "shelled themselves." This is a standard counter-narrative to deflect from RF strikes on civilian areas.
• Strategic Disinformation: Basurin (0610Z) is reviving claims regarding a drone attack on Putin's residence to frame Ukraine as a "terrorist state" requiring total infrastructure destruction.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):

• Zaporizhzhia: RF will continue to utilize numerical superiority to bypass UAF strongpoints. If the "extreme pressure" reported by CNN is accurate, a tactical withdrawal from Stepnohirsk is likely within the next 12h to prevent encirclement.
• Strategic: The "Saturation Strike" remains the primary threat. The high-volume drone wave (116 units) likely served as a terminal reconnaissance-by-fire to map the current state of UAF AD post-New Year.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated missile strike (Kalibr/Iskander) timed with a mechanized breakthrough in the "Grey Zone" toward the Dnipro oblast border, capitalizing on reported UAF manpower shortages.

6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)

• Kinetic: Transition from UAV-led attrition to tactical aviation (KAB) bombardment of the Zaporizhzhia front.
• Hybrid: Intensification of RF cyber-operations against Ukrainian civilian services, framed as "counter-hacking" in response to the Khorly incidents.

7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. CONFIRMATION OF TERRITORIAL LOSS: Verify CNN reports of "significant territory" captured in Zaporizhzhia via independent satellite or ground-truth SIGINT.
2. KHORLY ATTRIBUTION: Determine the exact munition type used in Khorly to confirm if it was a UAF GMLRS/ATACMS strike or an RF AD intercept failure.
3. AD SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION: Identify the specific models of the two RF AD systems destroyed by "Madyar" to assess the degradation of RF local air cover.
4. ZINCHENKO ARREST CONTEXT: Monitor for further arrests in the occupied Zaporizhzhia administration to determine if this impacts RF frontline logistics or command.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//