MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT (KHORLY): RF Investigative Committee reports fatalities from the alleged UAF strike on Khorly (occupied Kherson) have risen to 27, including two children (0553Z, TASS, HIGH confidence in casualty count; LOW confidence in RF attribution/narrative).
TACTICAL ENVELOPMENT (STEPNOHIRSK): RF forces have reportedly bypassed Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia sector) from both the west (toward Hryhorivka) and east (toward Lukyanivske), threatening a forced UAF withdrawal from the area (0604Z, Zvizdets Mangustu, MEDIUM).
NEW UAV VECTOR (SOUTHERN COAST): UAF Air Force confirms a new group of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) ingress from the south, currently tracking toward Mykolaiv (0600Z, UAF AF, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE SECTOR PRESSURE: RF sources claim the UAF "Da Vinci Wolves" unit is requesting withdrawal from Verkhnia Tersa due to sustained pressure (0538Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
STRIKE BDA (DNIPROPETROVSK): Local authorities confirm two injuries and "controlled" conditions in Kryvyi Rih following overnight drone and missile activity (0554Z, Vilkul; 0559Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv):
The sector remains under high aerial threat. Following the earlier Shahed activity over Nizhyn, RF tactical aviation continues to target UAF transit points. The "massive" UAF drone raids reported by RF sources (0542Z) suggest UAF is actively attempting to disrupt RF staging areas in the Russian rear (likely Belgorod/Kursk) to preempt the January offensive.
Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Operational focus is shifting toward logistics interdiction. RF "North" group video evidence (0605Z) shows targeted strikes on UAF motor transport, indicating a systematic effort to degrade short-range resupply to the frontline.
Zaporizhzhia Sector (Stepnohirsk/Huliaipole):
This is the most active tactical zone in the last 60 minutes. The bypass of Stepnohirsk suggests RF is moving away from direct urban assaults in favor of maneuver-based encirclement. The mention of the 14th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade (0602Z) in this general direction (Vostok Group area) points to high-intensity reconnaissance and sabotage operations supporting this maneuver.
Southern Sector (Kherson/Mykolaiv):
The new UAV vector toward Mykolaiv indicates a multi-pronged aerial effort. RF is likely using these southern incursions to stretch UAF air defense (AD) resources thin, potentially creating a "corridor" for the anticipated saturation strike from the north/east.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Capabilities/Tactics:
Maneuver Warfare: The double-sided bypass of Stepnohirsk indicates RF tactical commanders are successfully executing localized envelopments, likely utilizing the "Kurier" UGVs noted in previous reports to probe defenses before mechanized movement.
Narrative Priming: The sharp increase in reported casualties at Khorly (from 14 to 27) is a clear indicator of RF Information Operations (IO) priming. This creates a "retaliation" justification for high-yield missile use against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Intentions:
MLCOA: Continued tactical pressure on the Stepnohirsk-Huliaipole line to force a UAF defensive realignment, while utilizing Shahed waves to map AD response times for the main missile package.
MDCOA: The "Saturation Strike" (Logistics Score 48.22) is now synchronized with the Mykolaiv UAV ingress, suggesting a coordinated strike from the Black Sea (Kalibr) and strategic aviation (Kh-101) within the next 6 hours.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture:
Stepnohirsk: UAF units are facing a high risk of tactical encirclement. Defensive lines are likely being transitioned to the Hryhorivka-Lukyanivske secondary line.
Elite Unit Disposition: The presence of the "Da Vinci Wolves" (1st Separate Assault Battalion) near Huliaipole confirms UAF is committing high-readiness reserves to stabilize the southern front.
Recent Tactical Actions:
Anti-UAS: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are currently engaging the Mykolaiv-bound UAV group.
Deep Strikes: Overnight UAF drone activity into RF territory suggests a continued "active defense" posture aimed at degrading RF launch platforms.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Counter-Narrative: Ukrainian sources (RBK-UA/CPD) are highlighting RF economic stagnation (0.1% growth) to counter RF propaganda regarding "limitless" war resources.
Propaganda Premieres: RF mil-bloggers (Kotsnews) are releasing high-production ideological content to maintain domestic momentum despite high attrition rates (0600Z).
The "Khorly Massacre" Narrative: Expect RF state media to saturate international channels with imagery from the village of Khorly to delegitimize UAF long-range strike capabilities.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Zaporizhzhia: High probability of a UAF tactical withdrawal from Stepnohirsk to avoid encirclement.
Aerial: The confluence of Shahed groups from Chernihiv (North) and Mykolaiv (South) suggests a terminal convergence on central Ukraine (Kyiv/Dnipropetrovsk) occurring within the 0800Z-1200Z window.
Saturation Strike: Remains CRITICAL. The loading indicators at the 260th GRAU Arsenal suggest the munitions are already in flight or on launch platforms.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
STEPNOHIRSK GEOMETRY: Urgent need for satellite or high-altitude ISR to confirm the depth of the RF bypass and if the road to Hryhorivka remains a viable GLOC for UAF.
DA VINCI WOLVES STATUS: Verify the "withdrawal request" via internal signals; determine if this is RF disinformation or a genuine tactical crisis near Verkhnia Tersa.
KHORLY FORENSICS: Collect ELINT/SIGINT to determine if the 27 casualties were caused by a UAF strike, an RF AD intercept falling on a civilian area, or a deliberate false flag.
14TH SPETSNAZ TRACKING: Identify the current Point of Origin for 14th Spetsnaz units to predict the next "grey zone" infiltration point in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
