AIR OPERATIONS (NORTHERN SECTOR): UAF Air Force confirms a group of OWA-UAVs (Shahed type) active in Chernihiv Oblast, specifically the Nizhyn area (0507Z, UAF AF, HIGH).
TACTICAL AVIATION (KHARKIV AXIS): RF sources claim a strike involving three FAB-500 bombs against a Temporary Deployment Point (PVD) of the UAF 159th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kolodezne (0506Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
UAV INTERDICTION (VREMIVKA SALIENT): Units of the RF 5th Army (Vostok Group) are reportedly engaging "heavy copters" (likely UAF 'Baba Yaga' platforms) using FPV drones in the Vremivka direction (0530Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
DEEP TACTICAL STRIKES: RF UAVs targeted the Synelnykove district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), specifically the Slavyanka, Bohynivka, and Vasylkivka communities (0530Z, Dnipro OVA, HIGH).
CASUALTY UPDATE (SOUTHERN SECTOR): RF state media reports 14 hospitalized (including 5 children) following strikes in occupied Kherson; local UAF officials report 2 wounded in Zaporizhzhia/Polohy regions (0508Z, TASS; 0510Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, MEDIUM).
REAR AREA STATUS: Lipetsk Oblast (RF) has downgraded its aerial threat level ("Yellow") to "All Clear" (0532Z, Artamonov, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv):
The airspace remains contested with the confirmed presence of RF UAVs over Nizhyn (Chernihiv). This suggests a continuing effort to probe air defense (AD) gaps or target logistics nodes supporting the Sumy/Kursk axes. The reported FAB-500 strike in Kolodezne (Kharkiv) indicates RF tactical aviation is maintaining high-weight ordnance delivery on frontline UAF concentrations to disrupt rotations or defensive preparations.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Vremivka):
Operational tempo in the Vremivka salient is characterized by "drone-on-drone" warfare. RF 5th Army units are adapting to UAF heavy night-bomber drones by utilizing dedicated interceptor FPVs. This suggests a localized parity in UAS capabilities and an RF focus on neutralizing UAF tactical advantage in nighttime reconnaissance and bombardment.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Dnipropetrovsk):
RF is expanding its strike envelope into the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border (Synelnykove), likely aiming to disrupt the logistics chain between Dnipro and the Pokrovsk/Donbas front. Ground activity in Zaporizhzhia remains focused on harassing fires and localized infantry probes in the Polohy area.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities/Tactics:
Aerial Adaptation: The use of FPVs to intercept "heavy copters" indicates a shift in RF counter-UAS (C-UAS) doctrine at the tactical level, moving away from pure EW dependence toward kinetic interception.
Strike Packages: RF continues to utilize FAB-500s with UMPK glide kits, allowing for stand-off strikes that minimize risk to their airframes while maximizing damage to UAF point targets like the 159th OMBr.
Intentions:
RF is likely attempting to fix UAF forces in the Northern and Southern sectors to prevent reinforcement of the "grey zone" in Myrnohrad (as identified in the 01 JAN Daily Report).
The "retaliation" narrative regarding Kherson (targeting children/civilians) is being reinforced by TASS to justify the anticipated large-scale missile strikes (Saturation Strike).
Logistics/Sustainment:
The cancellation of the air alert in Lipetsk suggests the RF rear area has managed the immediate threat from the UAF's previous 64-UAV wave, likely allowing for a resumption of normal logistics throughput.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture:
UAF units (specifically the 159th OMBr and "heavy copter" operators) remain heavily engaged in defensive operations. The 159th's presence in Kolodezne indicates a defensive posture along the Kupiansk-Svatove axis.
Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively tracking the UAV group over Chernihiv.
Tactical Successes:
UAF "heavy copters" continue to exert significant pressure in the Vremivka sector, forcing the RF to divert resources to counter-UAS operations.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Narrative Construction: TASS reporting on the "14 hospitalized" in Kherson is intended to build international and domestic pressure against UAF long-range strikes.
Hybrid Maneuvers: The public Russian request for the US to cease surveillance of the tanker Bella 1 (0528Z) serves as a diplomatic signal to probe Western resolve on energy sanctions while distracting from the military escalation.
Morale Signaling: RF mil-bloggers (Fighterbomber) are maintaining a high-frequency "positive" output to mask attrition rates (910/day) and sustain momentum ahead of the anticipated January offensive.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue OWA-UAV ingress over Chernihiv and Sumy to trigger UAF AD radars. This will be followed by tactical air strikes (FAB/KAB) against Kupiansk-sector strongpoints.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The "Saturation Strike" identified in previous reports (Score 48.22 at the 260th GRAU Arsenal) commences within this window, utilizing the Chernihiv UAV wave as a decoy/pathfinder for cruise/ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv and Western GLOCs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): Confirm the status of the 159th OMBr in Kolodezne; assess if the claimed FAB strike caused operational-level degradation.
UAV TARGETING: Determine the primary target of the Synelnykove UAV strikes—specifically, whether they targeted rail infrastructure or troop concentrations.
MARITIME HYBRID: Monitor the movement of tanker Bella 1 to determine if it is being used for a "false flag" incident or to test maritime enforcement limits.
BELIEF VERIFICATION: Corroborate the Vremivka "drone-on-drone" combat reports via independent UAF signals intelligence to assess the true effectiveness of RF C-UAS adaptations.
