TACTICAL AVIATION (SOUTHERN SECTOR): RF tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (0309Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
BOMBARDMENT (SUMY AXIS): RF sources report FAB (General Purpose) strikes on UAF positions in Sumy Oblast; winter terrain confirmed in footage (0316Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (IO): TASS disseminated a video interview of a UAF POW claiming leadership prioritizes equipment over personnel (0306Z, TASS, HIGH regarding propaganda event / LOW regarding veracity of claims).
DOMESTIC ALERT (RF REAR): Unspecified emergency alert issued by police in Khabarovsk Krai, Russian Far East (0311Z, Politsiya Khabarovskogo kraya, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv): No new updates on the OWA-UAV vector since 0301Z. The threat to the Vyshhorod district remains active.
Sumy Sector: Increased bombardment (FAB/KAB) confirms the RF is intensifying suppression of UAF defensive lines and staging areas. This aligns with the "January offensive" preparations noted in the 24h summary.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): Continued heavy tactical air pressure. KAB strikes are being used to maintain high-intensity attrition on UAF units in the "Grey Zone" near Myrnohrad.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The nature of the 0304Z emergency alert is now confirmed as a KAB strike package (0309Z). This confirms the RF is prioritizing aerial suppression of the Bilohir’ya/Zaporizhzhia axis, likely as a precursor to ground operations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation: The RF is demonstrating high-tempo multi-sector tactical aviation capability. Simultaneous KAB/FAB strikes in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia indicate a coordinated effort to fix UAF reserves and degrade fortifications along the entire line of contact (LOC).
Tactical Adaptation: The use of general-purpose FABs in Sumy suggests a high volume of unguided or semi-guided munitions being utilized where UAF air defense density is perceived to be lower.
Information Warfare: The TASS POW interview (0306Z) is a classic psychological operation (PSYOP) intended to erode trust between UAF frontline troops and command structures. This is likely timed to coincide with the high-stress environment of the current saturation strike campaign.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: PS ZSU remains the primary monitoring and early warning element. The shift of KAB strikes to Zaporizhzhia and Sumy indicates a need for increased mobility of air defense assets to counter tactical aviation "pop-up" strikes.
Defensive Posture: Units in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are taking direct hits from heavy aerial ordnance; focus remains on survival, dispersion, and maintaining communication integrity during heavy bombardment.
Information environment / disinformation
"Technique over Soldiers" Narrative: RF state media is aggressively pivoting toward a "disposable soldier" narrative for the UAF. This is intended to stimulate desertion or surrender during the anticipated 0300Z-0600Z kinetic peak.
RF Rear Stability: The alert in Khabarovsk (0311Z), while distant, may indicate domestic strain or security concerns in the RF Far East, though it has no immediate impact on the Ukrainian theater of operations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy will be followed by localized armored/infantry probes within the next 3-6 hours to test the response times of UAF units currently under bombardment.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The strategic UAV/missile wave (currently in progress) achieves a breakthrough of the Kyiv energy ring, while simultaneous mechanized assaults in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy exploit the communication "blackout" caused by energy failure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
SUMY BDA: Assess the impact of FAB strikes on UAF logistics in Sumy to determine if the RF has successfully interdicted reinforcement routes.
KAB GEOLOCATION: Pinpoint the exact impact sites in Zaporizhzhia to determine if the target is the secondary defensive line or frontline tactical positions.
KHABAROVSK ALERT: Determine if the 0311Z alert relates to military logistics (e.g., sabotage on the Trans-Siberian Railway) which could impact long-term RF resupply.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The theater is currently experiencing a peak in RF tactical aviation activity. Strikes are no longer localized to Donetsk but are spanning the Northern (Sumy) and Southern (Zaporizhzhia) axes.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: The RF is executing a "Broad Front" suppression strategy. By using KABs and FABs simultaneously across multiple sectors, they are forcing the UAF to choose where to commit limited air defense and electronic warfare (EW) assets.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF units are facing high-intensity aerial bombardment. Resilience depends on the effectiveness of decentralized command and the ability of Mobile Fire Groups to remain operational under air-to-ground fire.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: RF propaganda is transitioning from domestic distraction to targeted military-oriented PSYOPs.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: We are entering the highest-risk window for a multi-domain breakthrough attempt (0400Z-0800Z). Expect the transition from aerial bombardment to ground assault within this window in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
