AIR OPERATIONS (NORTHERN AXIS): OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) detected in Chernihiv Oblast, currently on a vector toward the Vyshhorod district, Kyiv Oblast (0301Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
TACTICAL AIR STRIKE (DONETSK SECTOR): RF tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Donetsk Oblast (0246Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
AIR ALERT (SOUTHERN SECTOR): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration issued an emergency alert, indicating imminent aerial threat or localized kinetic activity (0304Z, OVA, HIGH).
STRATEGIC CONTEXT (DPRK): Significant public visibility of Kim Ju Ae in North Korea suggests hardening of succession plans, relevant given deepening RF-DPRK military integration (0301Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv): The "Saturation Strike" predicted in the 24h summary is entering the secondary UAV phase. Ingress via Chernihiv toward Vyshhorod suggests a focus on the Kyiv hydroelectric power plant or northern energy distribution nodes.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): High-intensity KAB strikes (0246Z) are likely providing suppression for the RF ground forces operating in the Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk "Grey Zone." This tactical aviation support corroborates previous reports of RF attempts to attrit UAF armor (AFVs) in the sector.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The alert at 0304Z suggests the MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action)—a mechanized push in the Bilohir’ya sector—may be synchronizing with the broader aerial campaign to fix UAF reserves.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/Missile: RF continues the "pathfinding" phase of the strategic strike. The use of KABs in the East indicates that despite the focus on the strategic air campaign, tactical CAS (Close Air Support) remains a priority for the Pokrovsk offensive.
Hybrid/DPRK: The emphasis on North Korean leadership stability (Kim Ju Ae) in regional reporting reflects the long-term strategic reliance of the RF on DPRK munitions and potentially personnel, ensuring a stable supply chain for the 2026 winter campaign.
Tactical Adaptation: The vector of UAVs toward Vyshhorod indicates a deliberate attempt to bypass southern and eastern Kyiv AD (Air Defense) envelopes by utilizing the northern marshes and the Dnipro riverbed.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively tracking multi-vector UAV threats. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely being vectored to the Vyshhorod district to intercept subsonic targets before they reach the Kyiv metropolitan area.
Defensive Posture: Units in Donetsk remain under heavy bombardment. The launch of KABs necessitates increased dispersion and the use of hardened shelters for reserve elements.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Distraction Ops: TASS reporting on US celebrity deaths (0248Z) during an active strategic bombing campaign is assessed as "noise" intended to dilute the information space or simulate normalcy within RF domestic feeds.
Succession Narratives: The RBK-UA reporting on Kim Ju Ae serves to monitor the internal stability of a key RF military partner, highlighting potential future shifts in DPRK's "War State" posture.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The UAVs currently over Vyshhorod are intended to trigger AD radars. Expect a transition to cruise and ballistic missile launches (Kalibr/Iskander) from the Black Sea and Russian interior NLT 0500Z, targeting the Kyiv energy ring.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-regiment mechanized assault on the Zaporizhzhia front, timed with the peak of the Kyiv air alerts, aiming to exploit reduced UAF tactical awareness.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
ZAPORIZHZHIA THREAT: Immediate clarification required on the nature of the 0304Z alert. Is this an OWA-UAV threat or a cross-border shelling/ground incursion?
KAB BDA: Identify the specific impact zones of the 0246Z KAB strikes in Donetsk to determine if they are targeting UAF logistical GLOCs or frontline trenches.
UAV VOLUME: Determine the total number of "Shahed" units currently in the Kyiv/Chernihiv corridor to assess AD saturation levels.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The battlefield is currently dominated by the "Saturation Strike" timeline. The Northern axis is the primary vector for strategic UAVs, while the Donetsk sector is under heavy tactical air pressure.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: The RF is executing a coordinated multi-domain operation. The use of KABs in the East acts as a fixing force, while the UAVs in the North act as pathfinders for the main missile effort.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF assets are in a high-readiness defensive posture. The primary constraint is the depletion of AD interceptors against UAVs before the arrival of the main missile wave.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: Information is bifurcated between tactical alerts and strategic regional analysis (DPRK). RF media continues to provide non-relevant content to obscure the intensity of ongoing operations.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The 0300Z-0600Z window remains the critical "red zone" for strategic kinetic impact. Operations in Zaporizhzhia must be monitored for signs of the MDCOA breakthrough.
