AERIAL THREAT TO CHERNIHIV CITY: UAVs confirmed approaching Chernihiv city from the east, suggesting a flanking maneuver or multiple ingress points to bypass local air defense (0204Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
CONTINUED PATHFINDING: Current UAV activity aligns with the predicted "saturation strike" phase intended to deplete Mobile Fire Group (MFG) resources (0204Z, UAF Air Force, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv):ACTIVE. The sector is currently under multi-vector UAV pressure. Ingress from the north (Snovsk) and east (Chernihiv city) indicates a coordinated attempt to map AD gaps or strike local infrastructure.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk):STABLE/TENSE. Per previous reporting, RF continues "one-by-one" infantry infiltration tactics. No new kinetic updates since 0135Z, but the threat to Myrnohrad's center remains critical as dawn approaches.
Central Sector (Zaporizhzhia):MONITORING. Following the arrest of the occupation official (Zinchenko), no new ground movements reported. Air threat remains in "all-clear" status locally, though UAVs in the North may pivot south.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aerial Operations: The RF is executing the UAV phase of the saturation strike predicted in the 24h summary. The movement toward Snovsk and Chernihiv city suggests these drones are acting as pathfinders to identify active radar signatures before the arrival of cruise/ballistic missiles.
Tactical Intent: Analytic beliefs (Dempster-Shafer) suggest a balanced probability (~23%) between reconnaissance and direct kinetic strikes in Chernihiv. The intent is likely dual-purpose: exhausting AD ammunition while conducting final ISR for high-value targets.
Ground Tactics: No change to the shift toward individualized infantry movement in the East; this remains the primary ground threat to UAF defensive geometry.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are active in the Chernihiv region. Pursuant to previous daily recommendations, high-tier AD (Patriot/SAMP-T) are likely in "silent mode" to preserve interceptors for the expected post-midnight missile wave.
Defensive Adaptation: National Guard units in Pokrovsk are maintaining high-frequency FPV patrols to counter the RF's individual infiltration attempts.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Monitoring: No new shifts. The RF continues to leverage the "Tarasovka/Khorly" incidents as a pretext for the ongoing aerial activity.
Internal Russian Dynamics: The Zaporizhzhia administrative purge (Zinchenko) is being framed as an anti-corruption measure, but likely serves to tighten military control over local logistics.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV waves over Northern and Central Ukraine to fix AD assets. This will likely be followed by a combined cruise/ballistic strike targeting energy infrastructure or decision-making centers in Kyiv/Chernihiv before sunrise.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized breakthrough attempt in the Myrnohrad "Grey Zone" under the cover of the air raid, utilizing infiltrating infantry to seize key intersections before UAF tactical reserves can react.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
UAV Type Confirmation (P1): Determine if Chernihiv-bound UAVs are standard Shahed-136 or the newer "black" variants with radar-absorbent coating to adjust MFG engagement ranges.
Missile Staging (P2): Monitor AB Voronezh Malshevo and 260th GRAU Arsenal for immediate launch signatures (e.g., Tu-95MS takeoff or Iskander TEL movement).
Infiltration Depth (P3): Confirm the westernmost extent of RF "one-by-one" movement in the Pokrovsk sector to establish a new Main Line of Resistance (MLR).
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational tempo is accelerating in the aerial domain. While ground forces in the East are utilizing "micro-movements" to bypass detection, the North is facing a conventional saturation attempt. Weather remains conducive to UAV operations but may degrade for tactical aviation in the coming 12 hours.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: The RF is demonstrating a high degree of coordination between its strategic aerial campaign and tactical ground adaptations. The use of multiple ingress vectors in Chernihiv (North and East) suggests a sophisticated mission profile intended to overwhelm local coordination.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is in a defensive posture, prioritizing the preservation of high-end AD assets. The primary risk is the exhaustion of MFG crews before the main missile wave arrives.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The RF "retaliation" narrative is fully operational, providing the domestic justification for the current and expected strikes.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The 0200Z–0500Z window is the high-threat period for a transition from UAVs to missile strikes. If the RF achieves an AD breach in Chernihiv, it will likely be exploited by Kh-101 or Kalibr variants.
