TACTICAL AVIATION ESCALATION (DONETSK): Russian forces have launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Donetsk Oblast, indicating a shift from purely long-range UAV/missile strikes to tactical shaping operations (0101Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
SECTOR CLEARANCE (ZAPORIZHZHIA): All-clear signal issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating the immediate threat from the previous wave of UAVs or tactical aviation has subsided or been neutralized in this specific sector (0103Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
CONTINUING UAV THREAT: Multiple OWA-UAV (Shahed) vectors remain active in Chernihiv (Northern Sector) and Mykolaiv (Southern Sector) as established in the 0035Z sitrep (Contextual, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): The situation is intensifying. The launch of KABs (0101Z) suggests RF is providing close air support or conducting interdiction of UAF reinforcements near the Myrnohrad/Dobropillia axis. This aligns with the "contested" status of Myrnohrad and RF attempts to widen the breach toward the Dnipro administrative border.
Central Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): Tension has temporarily eased in Zaporizhzhia following the "all-clear" (0103Z). This may indicate a successful interception of the earlier UAV wave or a repositioning of RF assets toward the Donetsk front.
Northern Sector (Chernihiv): (Ongoing) No new change since 0017Z; UAVs remain a threat to northern GLOCs and the Kyiv energy ring.
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Kherson): (Ongoing) Mykolaiv remains under high alert following confirmed explosions; BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) is still pending.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Modal Offensive: The RF is now employing a "high-low" mix—using strategic OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) to saturate regional air defenses in the north and south while simultaneously employing tactical aviation (KABs) in the east.
Course of Action (COA): The KAB strikes in Donetsk are likely aimed at "fixing" UAF tactical reserves, preventing them from shifting to meet potential ground pushes while the national air defense grid is preoccupied with the UAV swarms.
Logistics Correlation: The tactical KAB activity reinforces the CRITICAL logistics spike (Score 48.22) at the 260th GRAU Arsenal; we are seeing the exhaustion of UAF's immediate response capacity ahead of a potential heavy missile wave.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Management: UAF has successfully cleared the Zaporizhzhia sector (0103Z), suggesting efficient tracking and neutralization of threats in the central corridor.
Tactical Posture: Units in Donetsk are currently under heavy bombardment; focus is on hardening positions against KAB impacts and monitoring for RF mechanized movement following the air strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Operational Security (OPSEC): UAF official channels are maintaining a high tempo of tactical alerts (AFU Air Force) to counter RF "terror" strikes, while local administrations (Zaporizhzhia OVA) are providing rapid "all-clear" updates to manage civilian movement and morale.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Analytic belief (0.51) confirms high confidence in the Donetsk airstrike activity, identifying it as the primary kinetic development in the current reporting window.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue KAB strikes in Donetsk to suppress UAF defenses, while the UAVs currently over Chernihiv begin their pivot toward Kyiv/Central Ukraine.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The "all-clear" in Zaporizhzhia may be a "lull before the storm," where RF re-tasks assets for a coordinated ballistic strike (Iskander-M/S-300) on Dnipro or Zaporizhzhia while Mobile Fire Groups are reloading.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Target Identification (Donetsk) (P1): Determine if KAB strikes are hitting frontline trenches or rear-area logistics hubs (e.g., Pokrovsk railhead) to assess the imminence of a ground assault.
UAV Attrition Rates (P2): Confirm interception success in Zaporizhzhia to determine if RF is experiencing EW interference or if UAVs have simply bypassed the sector.
Tactical Aviation Origin (P3): Identify launch airfields for the KAB-equipped Su-34s to coordinate potential UAF long-range drone counter-strikes.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The battlefield is bifurcating: a strategic UAV campaign in the North/South and an intensive tactical bombing campaign in the East (Donetsk). The clearing of Zaporizhzhia indicates a shift in focus rather than an end to the offensive.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is demonstrating improved synchronization between strategic "terror" strikes and tactical "shaping" strikes. The use of KABs in Donetsk at 0101Z suggests the ground offensive near Myrnohrad is entering a more aggressive phase.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is managing a 360-degree air threat. The ability to clear sectors (Zaporizhzhia) suggests local command-and-control remains intact despite the saturation attempts.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: Messaging remains focused on civil defense and tactical warnings. No significant new RF propaganda has emerged in this 30-minute window, suggesting focus is on kinetic execution.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Expect an increase in kinetic activity in the Donetsk sector over the next 3 hours. The heavy munitions staged at the 260th GRAU Arsenal are likely reserved for the "main effort" strike against Kyiv/Odesa, following this period of UAV-driven AD depletion.
