KINETIC IMPACT (MYKOLAIV): Multiple explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city following UAV ingress from the south; Mayor Senkevych reports an ongoing threat (0018Z-0031Z, RBK-Ukraine/Suspilne/Mayor Senkevych, HIGH).
NORTHERN VECTOR EXPANSION (CHERNIHIV): OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) have entered western Chernihiv Oblast (near Lyubech) moving toward Ripky, with a second vector approaching Chernihiv city from the south (0015Z-0017Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
SOUTHERN UAV INGRESS: New UAV wave detected approaching Mykolaiv from the south (Kherson/Black Sea axis) (0011Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
RF INTERNAL NORMALCY NARRATIVE: Russian state authorities (Khabarovsk Krai) are broadcasting routine administrative holiday schedules to maintain a domestic "business as usual" atmosphere during high-intensity operations (0014Z, Khabarovsk GAI, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Kherson): The situation has escalated from a "threat" to "active engagement." Mykolaiv is currently under sustained OWA-UAV attack with at least two confirmed impact/interception explosions recorded within a 15-minute window.
Northern Sector (Chernihiv): A new axis of the aerial campaign has opened. UAVs are probing the western flank of Chernihiv Oblast, likely attempting to bypass AD screens to reach the Kyiv "energy ring" or northern GLOCs.
Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): (Baseline) Previous strikes on Zaporizhzhia (9 hits) and threats to the Dnipro-Kamyanske industrial hub remain the primary focus of RF heavy munitions.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Izyum): (Baseline) No new kinetic updates since the 0002Z report of UAVs moving toward Izyum.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Evolution (Geographic Broadening): The addition of the Chernihiv vector indicates the RF is not solely focusing on the southern/central industrial corridor but is executing a multi-directional saturation of the entire eastern half of Ukraine.
Targeting Intent: The simultaneous pressure on Mykolaiv (port/logistics) and Chernihiv (northern approach) suggests a deliberate effort to force UAF to thin out its Mobile Fire Group (MFG) density.
Sustainment: The current tempo aligns with the CRITICAL logistics spike (Score 48.22) at the 260th GRAU Arsenal, suggesting this is only the initial "UAV-saturation" phase of a larger missile package.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Air Defense: UAF Air Force is maintaining high-fidelity tracking of multi-vector threats. MFGs and electronic warfare (EW) units are actively engaged in the Mykolaiv area to mitigate the confirmed "Shahed" threat.
Civil Defense: Local authorities (Mykolaiv Mayor) are providing rapid public warnings to minimize civilian casualties from kinetic impacts.
Information environment / disinformation
Domestic Narrative Control: The broadcast of holiday operating hours in Khabarovsk Krai (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.46 Propaganda Effort) serves as a psychological counter-weight to the high-intensity kinetic reporting, signaling to the Russian domestic audience that the "Special Military Operation" remains a background event.
Impact Documentation: Real-time reporting of explosions in Mykolaiv by Suspilne and RBK-Ukraine provides rapid BDA for enemy intelligence but is necessary for domestic civil defense.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation over Chernihiv and Mykolaiv for the next 2-3 hours. UAVs in Chernihiv will likely pivot south toward Kyiv.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized arrival of Chernihiv-origin UAVs and Dnipro-origin UAVs over the Kyiv region, followed by a high-speed ballistic/cruise missile strike on the capital's power infrastructure while AD is saturated.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA (Mykolaiv) (P1): Identify specific targets hit in Mykolaiv (port vs. energy infrastructure) to assess RF targeting priorities in the south.
Launch Point (Chernihiv Vector) (P2): Determine if the Chernihiv UAVs originated from Belarus territory or the Bryansk (RF) region to assess potential escalatory involvement of Belarusian basing.
UAV Types (P3): Confirm if "Geran-3" (smaller, quieter) variants are being used in the Chernihiv vector to explain late detection.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The RF aerial offensive has expanded geographically. We are now seeing a 270-degree threat arc (North, East, South) targeting regional centers (Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro).
ENEMY ANALYSIS: The RF is using a "staggered arrival" tactic, where waves from different vectors (Sumy, Chernihiv, Kherson) are timed to converge on central targets or overwhelm regional AD nodes sequentially.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF resources are being stretched by the geographic expansion. The move into western Chernihiv forces a realignment of AD assets protecting the northern GLOCs.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: Russia continues to bifurcate its information space: high-intensity "terror" strikes for Ukraine and "standard holiday" messaging for the Russian interior.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The presence of UAVs in Chernihiv and Mykolaiv simultaneously suggests a massive effort to "fix" AD units. The high GRAU logistics score remains the primary indicator that a heavy cruise/ballistic missile wave is imminent as a follow-up to these UAV probes.
