ZAPORIZHZHIA KINETIC IMPACTS (HIGH): A second fire has been confirmed in another district of Zaporizhzhia city following OWA-UAV strikes (RBK-UA/OVA, 2207Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR CLEARANCE (MEDIUM): As of 2227Z, the immediate OWA-UAV threat to Zaporizhzhia city is reported as "minus" (all clear/intercepted) (Mykolaiv Vanek, 2227Z).
NEW INGRESS VECTORS (HIGH): New Shahed waves are transiting toward Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk), Nizhyn, and Goncharivske (Chernihiv) (Air Force AFU, 2230Z).
NORTHERN PIVOT (HIGH): UAVs detected north of Kholmy (Chernihiv) have reversed or adjusted course toward the Sumy region (Air Force AFU, 2232Z).
MOSCOW AVIATION RESUMPTION (HIGH): "Carpet" restrictions have been lifted at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports as of 2207Z, suggesting RF assessment that the immediate UAF drone threat to the capital has been neutralized or bypassed (TASS, 2207Z).
DIPLOMATIC NARRATIVE ESCALATION (MEDIUM): RF representative Gennady Gatilov has formally called for UN OHCHR condemnation of an alleged UAF "terrorist attack" in the Kherson region, likely to counter the 2130Z report of RF drone strikes on civilians (TASS, 2222Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy): Active saturation zone. Drones are maneuvering between Nizhyn and Goncharivske, suggesting targeting of local garrisons or staging areas. The course correction from Kholmy back toward Sumy indicates a "shuttling" tactic to confuse AD tracking.
Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk): The vector toward Pavlohrad is critical. Pavlohrad is a major rail and logistics hub; strikes here aim to disrupt the flow of reserves to the Donbas front.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: Sustained BDA needed for the two confirmed fire locations. Immediate wave intercepted.
Odesa: Increasing narrative focus on a "semi-blockade." RF sources are emphasizing economic strangulation, which often precedes kinetic strikes on port infrastructure to validate the narrative.
RF Rear (Moscow): Normalization of air traffic indicates RF confidence in current AD posture, though the 1,000km strike on Tatarstan earlier today remains the strategic baseline for UAF reach.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
OWA-UAV Saturation (MLCOA): The RF is utilizing a multi-hub launch strategy. By simultaneously targeting Pavlohrad (Center), Nizhyn (North), and Zaporizhzhia (South), they are forcing UAF to dilute Mobile Fire Group (MFG) density.
Diplomatic Shielding: The push for UN condemnation of "Kherson terror" (2222Z) is a deliberate attempt to seize the moral high ground and provide diplomatic cover for the anticipated heavy missile barrage (MDCOA).
Targeting Trends: Shift toward Pavlohrad suggests a tactical interest in degrading UAF logistical throughput in the 24-48 hour window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Performance: Successful localized defense of Zaporizhzhia (2227Z) demonstrates the effectiveness of MFGs against low-altitude subsonic threats.
Strategic Resilience: Despite RF narrative pressure regarding Odesa, UAF continues to maintain the maritime corridor, though the "semi-blockade" rhetoric suggests increased RF naval or aerial mining intent.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Warfare Narrative: RF channels are amplifying reports (citing WSJ) that Odesa is under "semi-blockade" (Operation Z, 2234Z). This is likely intended to discourage international shipping insurance and signal a shift toward targeting the grain corridor.
Social Policy Distraction: TASS (2232Z) is disseminating reports on pension indexation during a period of peak kinetic activity—a standard internal stabilization tactic to project "business as usual" to the RF domestic audience.
Kherson Counter-Accusation: The Gatilov/UN statement is UNCONFIRMED (LOW CONFIDENCE) regarding any UAF "terror" strike and is assessed as a reflexive disinformation response to the documented RF drone strike on Kherson civilians at 2130Z.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: OWA-UAVs will continue to orbit Pavlohrad and Nizhyn to fix AD assets. The arrival of a second, larger wave of Shaheds is expected between 0000Z and 0200Z to precede a possible missile launch.
MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike on the Odesa port facilities and the Kyiv energy ring, synchronized with the diplomatic "retaliation" narrative established in the last 2 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pavlohrad Target Identification (P1): Determine if the drones are targeting the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant or the rail junction.
Odesa Maritime Activity (P2): Monitor for RF Black Sea Fleet movements or aerial mining sorties near the Odesa shipping lanes.
Khorly/Tarasovka Forensics (P3): Urgent need for independent verification of the incidents being used by RF diplomacy to justify "retaliation."
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The RF air campaign has entered a "maneuver phase," with UAVs changing vectors (Chernihiv-to-Sumy) to expose AD gaps. Kinetic impacts in Zaporizhzhia are confirmed, but the threat has temporarily subsided there.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is using a "ladder" of escalation: (1) OWA-UAV saturation, (2) Narrative justification (UN/Gatilov), (3) Economic threat (Odesa blockade). This sequence strongly indicates a transition to high-yield missile strikes.
FRIENDLY FORCES: AD units are effectively engaging in the south but are being stretched by new vectors toward Dnipropetrovsk and Chernihiv.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The RF is moving from tactical disinformation (Hospital HQ) to strategic/diplomatic framing (UN condemnation), suggesting they are preparing for strikes that will require significant international "justification."
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The reopening of Moscow airports suggests the RF believes they have regained the initiative. Expect the focus to shift entirely to the "Odesa/Pavlohrad/Kyiv" triangle for the remainder of the 01-02 JAN window.
