KINETIC IMPACTS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): Multiple confirmed OWA-UAV (Shahed) strikes on Zaporizhzhia city have resulted in at least two separate fires in different districts (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 2145Z, 2204Z; RBK-UA, 2146Z).
MOSCOW AIRSPACE CLOSURES (HIGH): Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports have implemented "Carpet" restrictions on arrivals and departures, confirming the continued threat/impact of UAF deep-strike operations (TASS, 2154Z).
CONTINUED UAV INGRESS (HIGH): New waves of Shahed drones are transiting toward Chernihiv from the east and additional units are closing on Zaporizhzhia (Air Force AFU, 2147Z; Mykolaiv Vanek, 2141Z).
TARGETING NARRATIVE SHIFT (MEDIUM): RF-aligned sources are claiming the UAF General Staff is operating out of the Main Military Hospital in Kyiv, potentially establishing a "human shield" or "military necessity" pretext for strikes on medical/administrative targets (НгП раZVедка, 2136Z).
CIVILIAN TARGETING IN KHERSON (HIGH): An RF drone strike targeted two civilians in Kherson city at approximately 2130Z; casualties are reported (RBK-UA/Kherson OVA, 2141Z).
ATTRITION DISINFORMATION (LOW): RF state media claims UAF lost 20 fighter aircraft, including F-16s, during 2025—likely intended to counter recent UAF deep-strike successes (TASS, 2203Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): This is currently the most active kinetic zone. Zaporizhzhia is sustaining repeated hits, with fire crews responding to multiple locations. The strike on civilians in Kherson suggests a shift toward tactical terror strikes alongside infrastructure targeting.
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy): UAV ingress remains steady. The 2147Z report of drones moving on Chernihiv from the east indicates a broadening of the ingress corridor to stretch AD coverage.
RF Rear (Moscow/Border): The closure of major Moscow airports (Domodedovo/Zhukovsky) indicates that despite claims of 34 interceptions, the UAF strike package remains a credible threat to the Russian capital's transport and logistics hubs.
Eastern Front (Zaporizhzhia Line): RF sources are circulating footage of localized ground combat, though no significant change in the Line of Contact (LOC) is verified (Operation Z, 2154Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
OWA-UAV Saturation (MLCOA): The RF is maintaining a high volume of Shahed loitering. The specific targeting of Zaporizhzhia indicates a priority on degrading regional administrative and logistics hubs before a potential secondary missile wave.
Decapitation Narrative: The specific mention of the UAF General Staff's location (НгП раZVедка, 2136Z) is a high-risk indicator. This aligns with the MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action) from the previous report: a high-tonnage strike on "decision-making centers" in Kyiv under a fabricated moral pretext.
Tactical Attrition: The use of FPV/drop drones against civilians in Kherson (2141Z) indicates RF units are utilizing available assets for terror purposes when military targets are hardened or unavailable.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Counter-Operations: UAF appears to be maintaining pressure on the Moscow region, as evidenced by the disruption of civil aviation. This forces the RF to prioritize domestic AD over frontline support.
Strategic Communication: The 15th Separate Artillery Brigade "Chornyi Lis" has released high-quality performance data (2155Z), serving as a morale-boosting counter-narrative to RF claims of air superiority and UAF attrition.
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively engaging targets in the southern and northern corridors.
Information environment / disinformation
"Hospital Targeting" Pretext: The claim that the UAF General Staff is in a hospital is a classic RF hybrid tactic. UNCONFIRMED (LOW CONFIDENCE) and likely a disinformation plant to justify future strikes on civilian/medical infrastructure or to deflect from the Khorly cafe incident.
Aircraft Loss Claims: TASS (2203Z) claims of F-16 losses are currently UNCONFIRMED and lack visual evidence. This is likely an attempt to "win the day" in the information space following the Tatarstan strikes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro to fixed AD assets. High probability of a transition to sea-launched Kalibr or air-launched Kh-101 missiles targeting the Kyiv power grid between 0000Z and 0400Z.
MDCOA: A targeted strike on the Kyiv city center or military medical facilities based on the "hospital HQ" narrative.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia BDA (P1): Identify specific facilities currently on fire in Zaporizhzhia to determine if the target set is energy, industrial, or residential.
Moscow Flight Data (P2): Monitor the duration of airport closures at Domodedovo/Zhukovsky to assess the persistence of the UAF drone threat in the RF rear.
Kyiv Hospital Activity (P3): Verify security posture at the Main Military Hospital. Increased RF focus on this site suggests it is a high-priority target for the next 6 hours.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: Kinetic activity has peaked in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Moscow is currently in a defensive posture due to UAF aerial pressure.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is effectively using Shaheds to cause fires and civil distress (Zaporizhzhia). The emergence of the "Hospital HQ" narrative is a critical indicator of intent for a high-value strike on Kyiv.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF maintains the initiative in the strategic deep-strike domain (Moscow), but faces a heavy defensive burden in the South and North.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: Combat for narrative control is intensifying. RF is attempting to characterize UAF as using human shields to justify its own escalating strikes.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The "Carpet" plan in Moscow suggests the RF is struggling with local AD saturation. This may delay their own missile launches if command assets are diverted to capital defense, but the risk to Kyiv remains CRITICAL.
