MULTI-VECTOR SHARED INGRESS (HIGH): RF has launched a multi-axis OWA-UAV (Shahed) attack targeting Sumy (from North), Zaporizhzhia (from South), and Chernihiv (Air Force AFU, 2116Z, 2128Z, 2134Z).
KINETIC ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): Multiple explosions confirmed in Zaporizhzhia city following drone ingress; impact assessment is ongoing (RBK-UA, 2134Z; Mykolaiv Vanek, 2128Z).
MOSCOW DRONE STRIKE QUANTIFICATION (MEDIUM): RF state media claims 34 UAF drones were intercepted on the approach to Moscow between 31 DEC and 01 JAN (TASS, 2115Z).
OFFICIAL UAF DENIAL OF KHORLY STRIKE (HIGH): UAF General Staff spokesperson Lykhoviy formally stated that UAF only targets military and energy infrastructure, explicitly addressing the "hysteria" surrounding the Khorly cafe incident (Operativno ZSU, 2115Z).
RF STRATEGIC NARRATIVE ESCALATION (HIGH): High-level RF proxies (Medvedchuk) and state media have labeled Ukraine a "terrorist state," signaling the Khorly incident is being used to justify the ongoing aerial offensive (TASS, 2106Z).
DIPLOMATIC FRICTION (MEDIUM): RF sources are amplifying statements from the Slovak Ministry of Defense regarding opposition to Ukraine's NATO membership to stress-test Western unity (Operation Z, 2124Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Chernihiv): RF is utilizing the northern corridor for Shahed ingress. This indicates a continuing effort to saturate local AD and map transit corridors for potential follow-on cruise missile strikes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Zaporizhzhia is currently under active engagement. Kinetic impact at 2134Z suggests penetration of the local AD bubble or successful interception of low-altitude targets over the city. In Kherson, the Khorly incident remains the primary focal point for RF information operations.
RF Rear (Moscow Axis): While the "Red Level" threat in Lipetsk has subsided, the TASS report of 34 drones near Moscow confirms the capital remains a priority target for UAF strategic attrition.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
OWA-UAV Saturation: The simultaneous appearance of drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhzhia confirms the MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action) identified in the Daily Report: a saturation wave intended to deplete UAF Mobile Fire Group (MFG) ammunition and fix AD assets.
Strategic Intent: The intensity of the "terrorist state" rhetoric (TASS, 2106Z, 2126Z) suggests the RF is finalizing the "moral justification" for a high-tonnage missile package (Iskander/Kalibr) targeting civilian or administrative infrastructure in the next 3-6 hours.
Hybrid/Diplomatic: Russia is successfully monitoring and amplifying discordant NATO voices (Slovakia) to coincide with kinetic strikes, aiming to degrade Ukrainian morale.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: MFGs are actively engaged in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia sectors. The use of electronic warfare (EW) and kinetic interception is confirmed by localized explosions.
Information Defense: The UAF General Staff's proactive denial of the Khorly strike (2115Z) is an essential counter-measure to the RF's "retaliation" narrative.
Sustainment: Continued civil-military cooperation and fundraising for drone technology remain high, maintaining the domestic pipeline for asymmetric capabilities (Sternenko, 2127Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Khorly "Retaliation" Narrative (CRITICAL): RF is attempting to bypass Western media skepticism by having figures like Kirill Dmitriev question the lack of Western coverage (TASS, 2126Z). This is a textbook "reflexive control" tactic to force Western outlets to acknowledge the RF version of events.
NATO Divergence: Amplification of Slovakian MoD statements (2124Z) serves to demoralize the Ukrainian public and create a perception of waning international support during a period of high kinetic threat.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed loitering to identify AD gaps, followed by a coordinated missile strike (Kalibr from the Black Sea or Kh-101 from Tu-95MS) targeting the Kyiv and Dnipro energy nodes before 0400Z.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the "terrorist state" pretext to launch a "decapitation strike" attempt against decision-making centers in Kyiv or high-value logistics hubs in Western Ukraine (Lviv/Volyn).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia BDA (P1): Determine if the 2134Z explosions were successful hits on infrastructure or interceptions. Identify if "Kurier" UGVs are being staged in the southern sector.
Missile Carrier Sorties (P1): Monitor Olenya and Engels-2 airbases for Tu-95MS/Tu-160 take-offs. This is the primary indicator for the transition from UAV saturation to heavy missile strike.
Khorly Forensics (P2): Obtain independent imagery of the Khorly site. Determine the type of munition used to verify/refute RF claims of a UAF strike.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The RF "retaliation" strike is in its opening phase. Mass OWA-UAV ingress is occurring across three primary vectors (North, South, and Northeast).
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is using a sophisticated "Narrative-Strike" loop: establishing a pretext (Khorly), saturating AD (Shaheds), and likely preparing a heavy kinetic finish.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF AD is responding. The strategic challenge remains the preservation of high-end interceptors for the expected second wave of cruise/ballistic missiles.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The battle for "who hit what" in Khorly is the center of gravity for international perception right now. UAF's official denial is timely but requires supporting evidence (e.g., radar tracks or flight paths) to remain effective.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The 2100Z-0300Z window is high-risk for ballistic threats. Personnel should remain in hardened shelters in Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kyiv.
