ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR ALERT REINSTATED (HIGH): Following the termination of the previous alert at 1956Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA has issued a new "ATTENTION" warning at 2007Z, indicating a resumed or secondary aerial threat (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 2007Z).
MASS UAF STRATEGIC DRONE CAMPAIGN (HIGH): RF MoD reports intercepting 201 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory in a 7-hour window, including 21 targeting Moscow. This confirms a massive, coordinated deep-strike operation by UAF to start 2026 (TASS, 2033Z).
KUPYANSK TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT (LOW - UNCONFIRMED): RF sources claim the 27th Brigade repelled a UAF infantry assault in the Kharkiv region, allegedly destroying equipment. This remains unconfirmed by UAF sources (Operation Z, 2017Z).
NARRATIVE ESCALATION - KHORLY STRIKE (HIGH): RF state media and Belarusian officials have intensified the diplomatic fallout from the Kherson/Khorly strike, framing it as a "violation of humanitarian law" to build international pressure and justify retaliatory strikes (TASS, 2028Z).
LYMAN AXIS PSYCHOLOGICAL OPS (MEDIUM): The UAF 3rd Army Corps (AC) conducted a synchronized kinetic and psychological strike on the Lyman axis, utilizing specialized "firework-shrapnel" munitions at midnight to degrade enemy morale (Operativno ZSU, 2025Z).
NORTHERN UAV VECTORS (MEDIUM): One-Way Attack (OWA) UAVs (Geran/Shahed) detected in northern Chernihiv heading north, possibly indicating a repositioning or a complex flight path to bypass AD (Air Force of the AFU, 2006Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): Active UAV transit noted. The northern vector suggests RF may be attempting to probe gaps in the AD screen or orbit assets for a coordinated strike on the Kyiv energy ring.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Lyman): Combat intensity is high. While RF claims defensive success near Kupyansk, UAF 3rd AC is maintaining offensive pressure and psychological dominance on the Lyman axis.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): The situation in Zaporizhzhia is fluid with the reinstatement of air alerts. In occupied Kherson, the RF is using the identities of the deceased (including Chechen personnel) from the Khorly strike to mobilize domestic sentiment (Alex Parker Returns, 2024Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Posture: RF forces are prioritizing defensive operations in the Kupyansk sector while leveraging tactical aviation. The reported loss of a Chechen national (Admisaev Mahmud) in the Khorly strike may trigger increased "Akhmat" or Chechen-specific retaliatory activity in the Kherson/Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Logistics: While the previous report noted strain on the 189th MRR, the MoD Russia "Top News" summary attempts to project a narrative of stable supply and high-frequency intercepts to mask localized fragilities (MoD Russia, 2030Z).
Strategic Reach: The RF Air Defense network is currently under extreme stress, having to engage over 200 targets in a single shift, which may lead to accidental "friendly fire" incidents or coverage gaps.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF has demonstrated a significant capability leap by launching a 200+ drone wave into the RF heartland. This is likely intended to force the RF to pull AD assets from the frontline to protect Moscow and infrastructure.
Tactical Innovation: Continued use of "tradition-based" psychological warfare (Lyman axis fireworks) indicates high morale and localized initiative among UAF tactical units.
Resource Mobilization: High-profile crowdfunding efforts (STERNENKO, 2012Z) continue to provide rapid procurement for FPV and "Rusoriz" (anti-drone) capabilities.
Information environment / disinformation
Belarusian Involvement: The inclusion of Belarusian National Assembly Chair Natalia Kochanova in the Khorly narrative suggests Moscow is pulling Minsk further into the information space to bolster the "humanitarian" pretext for upcoming strikes (TASS, 2028Z).
External Factors: Reports of intensifying protests in Iran (RBK-UA, 2024Z) are being monitored for their potential impact on the Shahed-136 supply chain and the availability of Iranian technical advisors.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Following the mass UAF drone wave, a heavy RF retaliatory missile strike (Kalibr/Iskander) targeting Kyiv and Western Ukraine is expected between 0000Z and 0600Z on Jan 2nd.
MDCOA: RF forces in the Kupyansk/Lyman sector attempt a nocturnal mechanized breakthrough, capitalizing on the chaos of the mutual air strikes and potential UAF focus on AD management.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
RF AD Degradation (P1): Assess the impact of the 201-drone wave on RF AD magazine depth. Identify any successful impacts in the Moscow or interior regions that TASS may be suppressing.
Zaporizhzhia Alert Specifics (P2): Determine the nature of the 2007Z alert—is this another "high-speed target" or a low-altitude Shahed wave?
Kupyansk Disposition (P3): Verify the RF 27th Brigade’s claims of UAF infantry losses. Confirm if this indicates a failed local UAF counter-offensive or a routine engagement.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The conflict has entered a period of extreme kinetic symmetry, with both sides launching mass aerial waves. The air alert status in Zaporizhzhia indicates the southern front remains the most volatile kinetic zone.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: The RF is pivoting to a "victim" narrative via the Khorly incident to maintain domestic support for a winter campaign. Despite this, their AD is currently overstretched by UAF strategic reach.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF has achieved a significant strategic victory by demonstrating the ability to penetrate Moscow's airspace with 20+ drones simultaneously. Tactical units in the East remain proactive despite cold weather conditions.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The narrative is shifting toward "humanitarian law" and international condemnation, with RF attempting to use Belarus as a neutral-sounding validator.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The next 6 hours will be critical for AD operators on both sides. The volume of incoming UAF drones suggests a "saturation before strike" tactic, potentially clearing the way for a more targeted strategic strike.
