ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR ALERT TERMINATED (HIGH): The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia was officially cancelled at 1956Z (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 1956Z). The "high-speed target" reported at 1910Z has likely been neutralized or impacted, ending the immediate kinetic threat to the city.
COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (HIGH): RDK Commander Denis Kapustin is confirmed alive. UAF-aligned sources claim the $500,000 "bounty" for his alleged liquidation was diverted to strengthen GUR special units (Hayabusa, 2000Z).
LOGISTICS DISRUPTION INDICATORS (MEDIUM): A direct appeal for material support (crowdfunding) has been launched for the 189th Motor Rifle Regiment on the Zaporizhzhia Front, suggesting localized supply shortages for RF units in this sector (Two Majors, 1950Z).
STRATEGIC MORALE NARRATIVE (HIGH): UAF-aligned OSINT (DeepState) released data confirming the RF occupied only 0.72% (4,336 sq km) of Ukrainian territory throughout 2025, countering the "unstoppable momentum" narrative (Tsaplienko, 1953Z; Operativno ZSU, 1958Z).
DISINFORMATION - TRUMP/ZELENSKY (LOW): Pro-Russian sources are circulating claims that Donald Trump uses derogatory epithets ("Bastard") for President Zelensky in private, citing a supposed "yellow tabloid" article. UNCONFIRMED and assessed as a hybrid effort to degrade bilateral relations (Alex Parker, 2004Z).
CHEPCHEN LOGISTICS REINFORCEMENT (MEDIUM): 10 new UAZ "Bukhanka" pickups were handed over in Grozny to support the "SVO," continuing the trend of Chechen leadership providing light-mobility assets to frontline units (Alex Parker, 1947Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Immediate aerial threat has subsided following the 1956Z "all clear." However, the identification of the 189th MRR needing urgent supplies indicates this sector remains a priority for RF offensive or defensive consolidation.
Occupied Territories (Mariupol/Donetsk): Occupation authorities in Mariupol are escalating the "legalized" seizure of private property, declaring homes "ownerless" to displace residents (ASTRA, 1935Z).
Rear Areas (Cherkasy): A domestic gas cylinder explosion destroyed a house and caused casualties. While non-kinetic, such incidents increase the burden on local emergency services during a period of high AD alert (RBK-UA, 1944Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Logistics & Sustainment: The RF continues to rely on "volunteer" and regional (Chechen) contributions for light-skinned transport. The 189th MRR’s reliance on Telegram-based crowdfunding for basic needs suggests significant gaps in the Russian MoD’s winter sustainment for the Zaporizhzhia axis.
Narrative Warfare: RF state media (TASS) and affiliated channels are heavily publicizing the names of the seven deceased from the Khorly strike to sustain the "Odesa 2.0" casus belli (Operation Z, 1948Z).
Tactical Disposition: Ground forces remain in a "grim period" according to Western reports, but there is no evidence of Putin deviating from the current offensive posture (CNN via Tsaplienko, 1936Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Intelligence/PsyOps: The RDK "resurrection" narrative serves as a significant win, embarrassing RF intelligence (FSB/GRU) and potentially generating operational funds via deceptive "bounty" claims.
Strategic Communications: UAF is successfully leveraging 2025 territorial gain statistics (DeepState) to offset the "long war" fatigue reported by the NYT, where some soldiers expect to remain in trenches until 2027 (Tsaplienko, 1935Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Dehumanization: Pro-RF channels (NgP Razvedka) have intensified the use of extreme dehumanizing language ("genetic inferiority," "homunculus") against Ukrainian figures to radicalize the domestic audience (1946Z).
Diplomatic Shielding: Moscow persists in presenting "drone route data" to the US regarding the Novgorod residence incident, attempting to frame UAF deep-strike capability as a global security risk (RBK-UA, 1937Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Following the "all clear" in Zaporizhzhia, the RF will likely analyze AD response patterns for a second, more complex strike wave targeting energy infrastructure in the early morning hours (0300Z-0600Z).
MDCOA: RF tactical units on the Zaporizhzhia front, potentially sensing AD exhaustion after the 1910Z high-speed target transit, launch a local spoil-attack to improve tactical positioning before dawn.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Target Assessment (P1): Identify the impact point/neutralization method of the 1910Z "high-speed target" near Zaporizhzhia. Was it intercepted by Patriot/SAMP-T or did it impact a non-civilian target?
189th MRR Disposition (P2): Determine the specific location of the 189th Motor Rifle Regiment on the Zaporizhzhia front to assess potential breakthrough vulnerabilities.
Property Seizure Scale (P3): Monitor for reports of property seizures in other occupied cities (Melitopol, Berdyansk) to confirm if the Mariupol displacement is a localized action or a broader RF policy for 2026.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The immediate high-speed aerial threat to Zaporizhzhia has passed, but the operational environment remains characterized by RF narrative escalation and logistical strain.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF forces are showing signs of localized logistics fragility (189th MRR), requiring regional and private intervention to sustain basic mobility. However, the command remains committed to an escalatory retaliatory framework.
FRIENDLY FORCES: Morale is being managed through strategic data (DeepState statistics) to counter the psychological toll of a war now projected by some to last through 2027. Counter-intelligence units are effectively exploiting RF information failures (RDK/Kapustin).
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The RF is deploying a multi-layered hybrid attack: historical grievances (Khorly), dehumanization (NgP), and diplomatic friction (Trump/Bastard narrative).
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The pause in air alerts is likely temporary. The transition to January 2nd will likely see a resumption of OWA-UAV launches to probe the AD changes implemented during tonight's alerts.
