KINETIC ESCALATION - ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): A high-speed aerial target (likely ballistic or cruise missile) is inbound to Zaporizhzhia from the east (1910Z, AFU). This marks the transition from UAV saturation to the heavy munitions phase of the predicted strike.
UAF SSO COUNTER-STRIKE (HIGH): Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) successfully destroyed a Russian command post, a "Shahed" storage facility, and a logistics hub in the occupied Donetsk region (1906Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
PROPAGANDA CASUS BELLI (HIGH): RF authorities published the first casualty list (7 deceased) from the Khorly strike (1913Z, ТАСС). Kremlin-aligned sources continue to equate this to the 2014 Odesa Trade Union House fire, signaling a "unlimited" retaliatory framework (1911Z, Alex Parker).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING - NOVOGOROD UAV (MEDIUM): The RF MoD claims to have handed "decoded route data" from a Dec 29 UAV attack on Putin’s Novgorod residence to the US Military Attaché, alleging the drone was controlled by UAF assets (1918Z, MoD Russia).
ZAPORIZHZHIA UAV VECTORS (MEDIUM): Multiple OWA-UAVs are active around Zaporizhzhia; one unit north heading East, and one south heading South (1919Z, AFU).
SLOVAK NATO STANCE (MEDIUM): Slovak Defense Minister Kaliňák stated Ukraine "will never be in NATO," highlighting a point of friction in European security architecture (1934Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia): The primary kinetic focus has shifted here. After hours of Shahed probing, the arrival of a "high-speed target" (1910Z) suggests an attempt to suppress AD or hit critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia city.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): UAF SSO success in the rear (Donetsk) indicates high-quality HUMINT/ISR, potentially disrupting Russian offensive logistics. However, RF "Center" Group forces continue high-intensity assaults toward the Dnipropetrovsk border and within the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk urban complex (1923Z, Операция Z).
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): Situation stable but remains under high alert following the Shahed transit reported at 1850Z.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aerial Offensive: The RF has entered the "Heavy Strike" phase. The combination of OWA-UAVs (Shahed) and high-speed targets (Iskander or Kh-22) is designed to overwhelm local AD. The destruction of a Shahed warehouse by UAF SSO (1906Z) is a significant tactical win that may reduce the density of subsequent waves in the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia axis.
Ground Tactics: Russian "Center" Group continues to push through winter conditions, focusing on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis to exploit the New Year period (1923Z).
Logistics/Sustainment: Chechen leadership (Kadyrov) provided 10 UAZ "Bukhanka" pickups for the "SVO," indicating a continued need for light, high-mobility logistics to sustain frontline attrition (1929Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Special Operations: SSO demonstrated deep-strike capability in occupied Donetsk. Targeting the Shahed warehouse during an active air campaign is a high-value disruption of the enemy's "kill chain."
Air Defense: AFU Air Force is actively tracking and vectoring responses to high-speed targets in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Information environment / disinformation
"Odesa 2.0" Narrative: The aggressive push of the Khorly casualty list alongside the 2014 Odesa comparison is the primary psychological operation (PSYOP). It aims to justify high-collateral damage strikes in Ukraine to the Russian domestic audience.
International Pressure: The handover of UAV data to the US Embassy (1918Z) is a hybrid effort to pressure Washington to limit UAF deep-strike capabilities by framing them as "terrorist" acts against leadership residences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: The high-speed target arrival at 1910Z signals the start of a multi-city missile barrage. Expect follow-on strikes against the Kyiv energy ring and Odesa's logistics hubs through 0200Z.
MDCOA: RF forces attempt a "night dash" mechanized assault in the Bilohir'ya/Zaporizhzhia sector (as previously flagged) to exploit the current air alert and AD saturation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
SSO Strike Assessment (P1): Confirm the scale of destruction at the Donetsk Shahed warehouse. Did this strike neutralize a specific "wave" intended for tonight's operation?
High-Speed Target Identification (P1): Confirm if the 1910Z target was a ballistic (Iskander) or cruise (Kalibr/Kh-101) missile to determine the current launch platform status (Sea vs. Land vs. Air).
Bilohir'ya Status (P2): Still no visual confirmation of RF presence in Bilohir'ya town center. Ground status remains UNCONFIRMED.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The theater is currently experiencing a transition from shaping (UAVs) to decisive kinetic action (Missiles). Zaporizhzhia is the immediate focal point of the heavy strike.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is using a "legalistic/moral" pretext (Khorly) to escalate. The handover of "drone data" to the US suggests an attempt to create a diplomatic shield against UAF strikes on RF leadership assets.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF SSO is effectively conducting "offensive defense" by hitting launch and storage infrastructure in the occupied rear.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: Significant efforts by RF to link current operations to historical grievances (2014 Odesa) and to utilize third-party voices (Slovakia) to demoralize Ukrainian strategic goals.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Expect high-intensity AD activity over Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro within the hour. The Zaporizhzhia ground axis remains the most likely area for a Russian tactical surprise during this bombardment.
