CRITICAL UAV INGRESS - MULTI-VECTOR (HIGH): New OWA-UAV (Shahed) waves have entered Ukrainian airspace. Vectors: 3 units approaching Mykolaiv’s Korabelnyi district via Oleksandrivka (1848Z, Николаевский Ванёк); units transiting Dnipropetrovsk oblast (1845Z, AFU); and a unit transiting eastern Chernihiv toward Konotop/Sumy (1850Z, AFU).
ESCALATION OF RETALIATION RHETORIC (HIGH): RF leadership (Putin via Saldo) has officially equated the alleged UAF strike on Khorly to the 2014 Odesa Trade Union House fire (1849Z, ТАСС). This historical parallel is traditionally used by the Kremlin to justify "unlimited" kinetic response.
UNCONFIRMED GROUND ADVANCE - ZAPORIZHZHIA (LOW): RF sources claim forces have "burst into" Bilohir'ya (Zaporizhzhia sector) and occupied the town center while advancing toward Orikhiv (1854Z, Операция Z). This remains uncorroborated by UAF or independent OSINT.
MOSCOW DRONE PRESSURE (MEDIUM): Renewed RF reports of drone activity over Moscow (1850Z, РБК-Україна), sustaining the paralysis of the Moscow Aviation Hub previously reported (1835Z).
MANPOWER INCENTIVES (HIGH): The Republic of Bashkortostan (RF) has doubled one-time payments for MoD contracts, indicating a continued reliance on financial incentives to sustain high-attrition rates (1902Z, ASTRA).
MARITIME DIPLOMACY (MEDIUM): The RF has officially requested the US cease pursuit of the tanker Bella 1, claiming it now sails under the RF flag (1900Z, Оперативний ЗСУ).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): A new UAV vector is active. A Shahed is transiting eastern Chernihiv toward Konotop (Sumy oblast), likely serving as a "pathfinder" for the northern corridor of the anticipated missile strike.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): Combat remains high-intensity. Footage confirms active UAF troop movements in "highly contested" areas of Donbas (1842Z, Оперативний ЗСУ). RF sources claim the liquidation of a UAF 111th TDF Bde battalion commander, Mykola Shevchenko (UNCONFIRMED/LOW; 1839Z, ТАСС).
Zaporizhzhia Sector:CRITICAL MONITORING REQUIRED. Reports of RF forces entering Bilohir'ya (1854Z) suggest a potential attempt to widen the frontline east of the Orikhiv salient. If confirmed, this represents the MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action) identified in the daily report.
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Odesa): Direct threat to Mykolaiv is imminent; three Shaheds are currently over the southern approaches (Korabelnyi district). Strategic assessment from the Wall Street Journal identifies Odesa as the primary RF target due to its role as a transport and economic hub (1849Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
Strategic Rear (RF): Moscow remains under UAV pressure, forcing the RF to balance domestic AD requirements with the frontline offensive.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aerial Offensive: The timing of the new Shahed waves (1845Z-1850Z) aligns perfectly with the predicted 1900Z "saturation phase." These units are likely tasked with identifying gaps in AD for the heavy munitions currently staged at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR Score 48.22).
Ground Tactics: RF is attempting to exploit New Year transition periods to seize "grey zone" settlements in Zaporizhzhia (Bilohir'ya).
Logistics/Manpower: Bashkortostan’s payout increase suggests the RF MoD is struggling to maintain recruitment quotas without escalating domestic economic pressure.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: MFGs (Mobile Fire Groups) are actively engaged in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
Operations: DeepState analysis confirms that while 4,336 sq km (~0.72% of UA) was lost in 2025, the defensive line remains operationally coherent despite recent RF tactical gains (1855Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
Strategic Comms: UAF continues to document the "Donbas morning run" (tactical maneuvers) to signal high morale and continued presence in contested zones.
Information environment / disinformation
"Surveillance" Narrative: RF state media is propagating a claim that Ukraine is introducing a "total surveillance system" for mobilized personnel (1903Z, ТАСС). This is assessed as a psychological operation aimed at discouraging mobilization and fueling domestic unrest within Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - DISINFORMATION).
Odesa "Bloody Shirt": The Putin/Saldo comparison of the Khorly strike to the 2014 Odesa events is a clear indicator of upcoming kinetic "retaliation."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation of Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Dnipro leading into a massive cruise/ballistic missile strike targeting Odesa’s port and the Kyiv energy ring. Expected window: 1930Z - 2130Z.
MDCOA: RF mechanized push to consolidate gains in Bilohir'ya (Zaporizhzhia) to threaten the secondary defensive line near Orikhiv.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bilohir'ya Verification (P1): Urgent requirement for satellite imagery or drone reconnaissance to confirm the status of Bilohir'ya town center.
Shahed Vector Analysis (P2): Determine if the Chernihiv-Konotop UAV is a decoy or leading a larger swarm toward the Kyiv metropolitan area.
Tanker Bella 1 Status: Clarify the legal and physical position of the tanker to assess potential maritime escalation in the Black Sea or Mediterranean.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The theater is currently in the terminal phase of pre-strike saturation. Multiple UAV vectors are probing the southern and northern AD corridors.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: The RF has transitioned from tactical shaping to high-level political signaling (Putin's Khorly comments), indicating the strike order has likely been authorized at the highest level.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF maintains tactical mobility in Donbas but faces a significant AD challenge across the southern axis as Odesa and Mykolaiv are prioritized.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: Dominated by RF efforts to provide moral justification for a major strike and disinfo targeting Ukrainian mobilization.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Kinetic intensity will peak within the next 120 minutes. The Zaporizhzhia "Bilohir'ya" report suggests a coordinated ground-air effort to overwhelm Ukrainian command and control.
