MOSCOW AVIATION DISRUPTION (HIGH): Following the massed UAV attack, over 60 flights are delayed and at least 10 cancelled across Moscow airports (Vnukovo/Domodedovo/Sheremetyevo); RF sources characterize this as a "caravan" of drones intended to paralyze civil aviation (Новости Москвы, 1820Z; Два майора, 1824Z).
SHAHED PINCER - MYKOLAIV/KRYVYI RIH (HIGH): Multiple OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) are currently transiting the Kherson/Mykolaiv border. Targets identified include Mykolaiv city (approaching from South via Kulbakino) and Kryvyi Rih (approaching from South) (Air Force AFU, 1810Z, 1821Z, 1827Z; Николаевский Ванёк, 1825Z).
POKROVSK KINETIC INTENSITY (HIGH): UAF 155th OMBr is actively conducting FPV drone operations against RF infantry in the Pokrovsk sector; simultaneously, RF "Guards tank crews" are confirmed operating in the immediate vicinity, receiving tactical equipment reinforcements (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1811Z; Военкор Котенок, 1820Z).
DIPLOMATIC FRONTLINE (MEDIUM): Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated that any future peace treaty "will not be completely fair," signaling a shift in European rhetorical expectations toward a pragmatist/frozen conflict stance (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 1815Z).
FOREIGN CASUALTY (HIGH): Confirmation of the death of an Australian volunteer serving with the UAF in the Donetsk sector (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 1820Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector: No change to the UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE report of RF forces 20km from Sumy.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): High-intensity urban and suburban combat. The 155th OMBr’s use of FPV drones suggests RF infantry is attempting small-unit infiltration. RF armor presence (Guards tank units) near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) indicates a continuing mechanized push to exploit the Myrnohrad "grey zone."
Zaporizhzhia Sector: Air alert active for the entire oblast (excluding the city). GUR Special Forces remain engaged in Stepnohirsk (baseline).
Southern Sector: Critical UAV activity. A "moped" (Shahed) is currently heading for the "Raketka" area of Mykolaiv via the Kulbakino airbase axis. Another vector is established toward Kryvyi Rih from the south, indicating a multi-pronged attempt to saturate regional AD before the anticipated missile wave.
Strategic Rear (RF): Moscow's air defense remains engaged. The disruption to the "Moscow Aviation Hub" is the most significant tactical success of the drone campaign to date, achieving operational denial of service even if kinetic damage is limited.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile Threat:CRITICAL. The current Shahed activity (1810Z-1827Z) follows the classic RF "pathfinder" profile. These units are likely mapping AD response times and exhausting mobile fire group (MFG) ammunition ahead of a high-velocity missile strike (Kalibr/Iskander/Oreshnik) expected between 1900Z and 2100Z.
Logistics: RF tank crews in the Pokrovsk sector are receiving "donated" tactical gear, suggesting that while frontline units are being reinforced, standard MoD supply chains for specialized gear (optics/comms) may still rely on auxiliary/volunteer channels.
Escalation Narrative: RF channels are now explicitly labeling UAF actions in Kherson as "terrible terrorist attacks" against civilians (Два майора, 1816Z). This reinforces the assessment that Moscow is finalizing the legal/political justification for "retaliation" against Ukrainian decision-making centers.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are engaged in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
Counter-Offensive/Defensive Operations: The 155th OMBr and 93rd OMBr (baseline) are successfully utilizing FPV and anti-armor assets to maintain the "contested" status of the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad axis, preventing an RF breakthrough into the operational depth.
Morale: High-profile units (SKELETA Regiment) and frontline brigades are maintaining a visible presence in the information space to counter RF "Sumy encirclement" panic-narratives.
Information environment / disinformation
"Terrorist Attack" Framing: RF sources are pivoting from the "Khorly" cafe strike to a broader "New Year's terrorism" narrative in Kherson. This is a coordinated information operation to maintain domestic RF support for a massive kinetic escalation.
European Unity: President Stubb’s comments regarding an "unfair" peace are being analyzed for signs of Western "Ukraine fatigue," though Finland remains a primary security partner (see: Lithuania's recent SAAB procurement as part of the broader Baltic-Nordic defense shield).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed saturation of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih, followed by a multi-vector missile strike targeting the Kyiv energy ring and Odesa's port infrastructure. Estimated launch window: 1930Z - 2200Z.
MDCOA: RF "Oreshnik" or other high-velocity munitions targeting government buildings in Kyiv or NATO-adjacent logistics hubs in Western Ukraine (e.g., Volyn) to exploit the "Budapest-Kyiv" rail sabotage incident.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk RF Disposition: Determine if the "Guards tank units" are part of a fresh reserve (e.g., 90th GTD) or remnants of previously engaged units.
Khorly Incident Forensics: (P2 Requirement) Urgent verification of the "terrorist attack" claims to debunk RF strike justifications.
Electronic Warfare (EW) Impact: Assess the effectiveness of UAF EW in the Mykolaiv sector against the current low-altitude Shahed ingress.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational environment has transitioned from shaping to the "ingress phase" of a major aerial offensive. Moscow's aviation hub is effectively neutralized by UAF drones, while southern Ukraine is under active UAV saturation.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF forces are utilizing a dual-track strategy: high-intensity small-unit pressure in Pokrovsk supported by tank reserves, and a strategic air operation designed to "punish" the Ukrainian rear for the Moscow strikes.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is prioritizing AD preservation and localized counter-attacks (FPVs) in the East. Strategic communications are focused on managing the impact of potential grid failure and foreign volunteer casualties.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The narrative is dominated by "fairness" in peace (Stubb) vs. "retaliation" for "terrorism" (RF MoD). The information space is a precursor to the kinetic window.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Expect high-intensity kinetic activity across the southern and central air corridors within the next 180 minutes. The Moscow aviation shutdown will likely trigger a more aggressive RF response than previously modeled.
