MASSED UAV ATTACK ON MOSCOW (HIGH): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin and RF sources report a massed drone attack on the RF capital; at least 20 UAVs reportedly intercepted (ASTRA, 1802Z; Operatsiya Z, 1804Z).
KINETIC ENGAGEMENT - STEPNOHIRSK (HIGH): UAF GUR Special Forces are currently engaged in high-intensity urban combat against RF forces in residential high-rises in Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia sector (Operativno ZSU, 1739Z).
ESCALATION PRETEXT - KHORLY (HIGH): RF-installed governor Saldo briefed Putin directly via telephone regarding an alleged "terrorist attack" on Khorly. RF state media is now explicitly linking UK and European intelligence to the event (TASS, 1738Z, 1751Z; Alex Parker, 1800Z).
GRID INSTABILITY (HIGH): Ukrenergo has announced nationwide rolling blackouts and industrial power restrictions for January 2, indicating significant strain or damage to the energy ring (RBK-UA, 1742Z; Operativno ZSU, 1752Z).
POW DIPLOMACY (MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy confirmed Defense Minister Umerov is in Turkey meeting with MIT (Intelligence) specifically to restart the stalled prisoner exchange process (Zelenskiy/Official, 1736Z).
TACTICAL SUCCESS - MYRNOHRAD (MEDIUM): The 93rd OMBr neutralized RF armor (tank), artillery, and infantry in the Myrnohrad sector, further supporting the assessment that the city remains contested (STERNENKO, 1741Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector:UNCONFIRMED reports from RF propagandists claim Russian forces are within 20km of Sumy city (Kotsnews, 1800Z). CONFIDENCE: LOW. Currently assessed as information psychological operation (PSYOP) to induce panic ahead of potential strikes.
Eastern Sector (Donbas): High-intensity defensive operations continue near Myrnohrad. Successful anti-armor engagements by the 93rd OMBr indicate UAF maintain effective fire control over key approach vectors (1741Z).
Zaporizhzhia Sector: New tactical flashpoint in Stepnohirsk. The deployment of GUR Special Forces to clear residential buildings suggests a localized RF infiltration or a high-stakes counter-raid by UAF (1739Z).
Southern Sector: Air Force reports an RF reconnaissance UAV active in the Black Sea near Odesa, likely providing terminal guidance or BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) for impending strikes. OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) are entering Mykolaiv from both North and South, indicating a pincer-style saturation of the city's air defenses (Air Force AFU, 1756Z, 1758Z, 1804Z).
Strategic Rear (RF): A massed UAF drone strike on Moscow is underway. This is a significant escalation in deep-strike frequency and scale, likely intended to disrupt RF command and control or provide a symmetrical response to the expected RF bombardment.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile Threat:CRITICAL. The direct involvement of Putin in the "Khorly" narrative and the explicit mention of the "Oreshnik" (ballistic missile) platform by RF-aligned channels (Alex Parker, 1800Z) suggests the RF is preparing a high-velocity response.
Information Operations: The RF is pivoting its narrative to blame "UK and European intelligence" for strikes on civilians. This is a deliberate attempt to frame the conflict as a direct war with NATO to justify broader strike parameters.
Naval Activity: The presence of a recon UAV near Odesa (1756Z) confirms the maritime axis remains a high-priority target for the RF's evening strike package.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Special Operations: GUR's direct combat role in Stepnohirsk indicates a shift toward using elite units to blunt RF urban gains in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Deep Strike: UAF has demonstrated the capability to penetrate Moscow's AD ring with a significant volume of drones (20+), forcing RF to prioritize domestic defense over theater-level offensive operations.
Strategic Energy Management: The preemptive announcement of Jan 2 blackouts suggests Ukrenergo is moving to a "protective shutdown" posture to minimize grid collapse during the anticipated missile waves.
Information environment / disinformation
Sumy Encirclement Narrative: The claim of RF proximity to Sumy (20km) is likely a fabrication intended to mask the reality of the Moscow drone strikes or to fix UAF reserves in the North.
Anti-NATO Rhetoric: Slovak Defense Minister Kaliňák’s statement regarding NATO membership is being heavily amplified by RF and pro-UA channels alike to highlight cracks in Western unity (RBK-UA, 1803Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Massed "retaliatory" strike on Kyiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv. Expected start time: Immediate to 2100Z. RF will likely use the Moscow drone attack and the "Khorly" incident as the dual justification.
MDCOA: Use of experimental or high-velocity ballistic munitions (e.g., Oreshnik) against a high-value government or command target in Kyiv.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Moscow BDA: Identify specific targets hit in the Moscow drone attack to assess the impact on RF MoD/GRU logistics.
Stepnohirsk Status: Determine if RF has established a permanent presence in the Stepnohirsk high-rises or if this is a transient raiding force.
Sumy Axis: Urgently verify RF ground positions 20km from Sumy to confirm/deny the propaganda claims.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The theater is now in a state of mutual deep-strike escalation. Moscow is under active bombardment, while Ukrainian energy infrastructure is bracing for a systematic "retaliation" strike.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF leadership (Putin/Saldo) has formalized the political pretext for escalation. The shift from tactical UAV ingress to direct presidential-level briefings indicates a transition to strategic-level munitions.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is utilizing GUR units for high-stakes urban defense in the South while maintaining deep-strike pressure on the RF heartland. The diplomatic channel in Turkey remains the primary non-kinetic focus.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The narrative environment is extremely hostile. RF is attempting to internationalize the blame (UK/EU) while UAF is managing domestic expectations regarding grid failure.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The next 6 hours represent the highest threat window for Ukrainian civilian and military infrastructure this year. Immediate focus must be on AD preservation and government continuity.
