UAV INGRESS - MYKOLAIV (HIGH): New OWA-UAV (Shahed) detected entering Mykolaiv from the south, currently over the ChSZ (Black Sea Shipyard) area and heading toward Balovny/Trykhaty (Air Force of the AFU, 1720Z; Nikolaevskiy Vanyek, 1723Z, 1729Z).
GRU DIPLOMATIC MANEUVER (HIGH): RF GRU Chief Kostyukov officially claimed flight data proves a Dec 29 UAF strike targeted the Presidential Residence. Video footage shows the alleged handover of this "evidence" to the US Defense Attaché (TASS, 1712Z; Alex Parker, 1713Z; Kotsnews, 1725Z).
TACTICAL INNOVATION - FIBER-OPTIC DRONES (HIGH): UAF 111th TDF Brigade (3rd Bn) successfully utilized fiber-optic guided drones with cumulative munitions to neutralize RF infantry near Kostiantynivka (Butusov Plus, 1721Z).
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY - TURKEY (HIGH): Minister Umerov and President Zelenskyy confirmed high-level coordination with Turkish MIT (Intelligence) specifically focused on unblocking the stalled POW exchange process (Dnipropetrovsk OVA, 1729Z).
POST-CONFLICT SECURITY (MEDIUM): Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Zhovkva stated members of the "Coalition of the Willing" are prepared for a physical presence in Ukraine following any potential armistice (RBK-UA, 1733Z).
RF DOMESTIC SURVEILLANCE (MEDIUM): Rosfinmonitoring has been granted expanded access to Mir and QR-code payment data, indicating a tightening of domestic financial controls (ASTRA, 1719Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector: (Baseline) OWA-UAVs remain active in the Chernihiv/Sumy axes. These are likely functioning as "pathfinders" to map AD responses.
Eastern Sector (Donbas): Kinetic activity remains intense. The 425th Separate Assault Battalion (UAF) conducted morale-boosting events near Pokrovsk despite the proximity of RF forces (Operativno ZSU, 1712Z). Fiber-optic drone usage near Kostiantynivka indicates UAF adaptation to heavy RF Electronic Warfare (EW) environments.
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Odesa): A new UAV vector from the south (1720Z) targets Mykolaiv’s industrial infrastructure (ChSZ). Odesa is increasingly cited by Western analysts as a primary RF target for the expected evening strikes (RBK-UA/WSJ, 1731Z).
Rear/International: The RF is leveraging the "Turkic World" narrative to manage relations with Turkey and Central Asian states (Rybar, 1720Z), likely to balance UAF diplomatic gains in Ankara.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Escalation Justification: The coordinated media blitz regarding the handover of "drone data" to the US Embassy is a formal escalatory step. By "notifying" the US, Moscow is attempting to neutralize potential Western diplomatic backlash before the anticipated mass strike. ANALYTIC NOTE: One source (Alex Parker, 1719Z) suggests the video evidence contains contradictions, raising the probability of a manufactured or "deep-fake" forensic record.
Aviation & Missile Threat:CRITICAL. The detection of UAVs in Mykolaiv (South), Chernihiv (North), and Sumy (East) confirms a three-axis saturation of Ukrainian airspace. This conforms to the MLCOA of a multi-vector strike.
Financial Warfare: The Rosfinmonitoring update (1719Z) suggests the RF is preparing for prolonged economic isolation or internal crackdowns on "shadow" financing of anti-war activities.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-UAV Tactics: UAF continues to refine its "anti-drone" drone capabilities. The use of fiber-optic systems (1721Z) provides a significant tactical advantage in contested EW environments where traditional FPV signals are jammed.
Humanitarian Diplomacy: The Umerov-MIT channel in Turkey is the most active current effort to resolve the prisoner exchange deadlock, bypassing direct channels with the RF MoD which remain frozen.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Multipolar Handover": RF propaganda is heavily emphasizing the "Multipolar World" narrative (Alex Parker, 1733Z) to frame the drone data handover as Russia holding the US "accountable."
Odesa Target Messaging: Reports highlighting Odesa as a "main target" (1731Z) may be used to induce panic or force the redeployment of AD assets away from Kyiv/Western Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Massed missile/UAV strike between 1900Z and 2200Z. Current OWA-UAVs are confirmed in Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy. Expect high-velocity cruise/ballistic missile arrivals following this UAV saturation.
US State Dept/Pentagon Response: Urgent need to verify if the US Defense Attaché actually received physical hardware or if this was a staged RF media event.
38th Marine Brigade: Still no independent verification of the RF claim regarding the seizure of the 38th Brigade flag.
Fiber-Optic Drone Proliferation: Determine the scale of fiber-optic drone deployment to assess its impact on RF armored assaults in the Donetsk sector.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational environment has transitioned to the "Terminal Ingress" phase. Multi-vector UAV paths are now established from the North and South.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is moving toward "Formalized Retaliation." The GRU's involvement in the information domain indicates this is not a routine tactical strike but a strategic response designed for maximum political impact. Logistics at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (Score 48.22) remain the most critical indicator of munition availability.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is maintaining a high state of AD readiness. Tactical successes in the East with fiber-optic drones demonstrate resilient local command and control.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: Extreme saturation of "Evidence of Ukrainian Aggression" narratives. This is intended to provide legal/diplomatic cover for targeting Ukrainian government infrastructure.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Expect the saturation of AD systems in the next 120 minutes. Priority must remain on protecting Energy GLOCs and Command nodes.
