UAV STRIKE ON MOSCOW (MEDIUM): Russian air defense reportedly intercepted two Ukrainian UAVs approaching Moscow (TASS, 1603Z, HIGH). This indicates UAF is maintaining pressure on the RF capital simultaneously with strikes in the South (Novorossiysk).
ZAPORIZHZHIA UAV INGRESS (HIGH): New wave of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) detected approaching Zaporizhzhia from the south (Air Force of the AFU, 1548Z). Although the city siren was cleared at 1554Z, missile danger for the oblast persists (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 1554Z).
KUPYANSK URBAN STALEMATE (MEDIUM): Heavy urban fighting continues in Kupyansk. Logistics for both sides are heavily disrupted by high concentrations of FPV drones, preventing either side from achieving a breakthrough (Colonelcassad, 1601Z).
KAB INTENSIFICATION - DONETSK (HIGH): New launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk sector (Air Force of the AFU, 1550Z).
DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (HIGH): Defense Minister Umerov met with Turkish officials to discuss regional security and the return of POWs (RBK-Ukraine, 1552Z).
RF JANUARY OFFENSIVE PREDICTION (MEDIUM): UAF regional communications head predicts RF efforts in January will focus on bypassing Vovchansk and liquidating the Kupyansk bridgehead to push toward Lyman (Operativnyi ZSU, 1557Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Deep Strike / RF Rear: UAF has expanded operations from the Novorossiysk port (1530Z) to Moscow (1603Z). This suggests a coordinated effort to force RF to pull back AD systems from the frontline to protect high-value political and logistical hubs.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Lyman): The situation in Kupyansk is "unstable" but not a "blitzkrieg" success for RF (Colonelcassad, 1601Z). Logistics are a primary bottleneck due to "qualified UAV crews" on both sides.
Donetsk Sector: Tactical-level successes for UAF include the liquidation of RF personnel in bunkers by the 30th OMBr (1544Z) and the destruction of an RF FPV drone via small arms fire (1537Z), demonstrating high readiness for drone-saturated environments.
Southern Sector: UAV threat remains active in Zaporizhzhia (1548Z). RF continues to promote narratives of UAF "terrorist attacks" in Kherson to justify retaliatory strikes (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1559Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile Threat: The threat level remains CRITICAL. The arrival of UAVs in Zaporizhzhia from the south (1548Z) suggests a multi-directional saturation attempt, likely coordinated with the expected 1900Z missile wave.
Ground Course of Action: RF is prioritizing the stabilization of the line in Kupyansk while using KABs to attrit Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk (1550Z).
Logistics Status: RF logistics in the Kupyansk urban area are currently "cut" by UAF drone activity, mirroring the difficulties faced by UAF defenders (1601Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Tactics: Successful use of small arms to down FPV drones (Butusov Plus, 1537Z) highlights the effectiveness of decentralized, unit-level electronic warfare and marksmanship training.
Strategic Manoeuvring: High-level talks with Turkey (1552Z) indicate a push for humanitarian breakthroughs (POWs) amidst the kinetic escalation.
Information environment / disinformation
Pretexting for Escalation: The RF MFA has officially characterized UAF actions in Kherson as "terrorist attacks" (1559Z). This follows the earlier "Novgorod residence" narrative and serves to provide a diplomatic "legal" framework for the expected saturation strike tonight.
Diversionary Reporting: TASS's focus on Italian New Year casualties (1558Z) serves to distract domestic audiences from the UAV penetrations in Moscow.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Massed missile strike (Kalibr, Kh-101) commencing between 1800Z and 2100Z. Current UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia and the Kyiv Reservoir is intended to fix AD assets.
MDCOA: RF may utilize the "Moscow strike" as a pretext for a strike on Ukrainian Government quarters (decision-making centers) in Kyiv using hypersonic 3M22 Zircon missiles to minimize reaction time.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Moscow Damage Assessment: Verification of the exact targets/impact points of the two UAVs intercepted near Moscow (1603Z).
Kupyansk Logistics: Identify the specific "qualified UAV units" RF has deployed to the Kupyansk sector to counter UAF's logistical disruption.
Zaporizhzhia Vector: Determine if the UAVs approaching from the south (1548Z) are maritime-launched or originating from occupied Crimea.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The battlefield is characterized by a "drone-lock" in urban sectors (Kupyansk) and a strategic "aerial-duel" in the deep rear. UAF's strike on Moscow is a significant escalatory response to the massive RF logistics buildup at the 260th GRAU Arsenal.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is following a predictable escalatory ladder: Logistics surge -> Narrative pretext (Tarasovka/Kherson) -> Pathfinder UAVs -> Massed strike. They are currently in the "Pathfinder/Pretext" phase.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is successfully utilizing asymmetric tools (drones, small arms) to hold the line in the East while using strategic UAVs to disrupt RF political stability.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: RF is aggressively framing Ukraine as a "terrorist" actor to international audiences (specifically via the Turkey/UN channel) to mitigate the diplomatic fallout of the upcoming energy infrastructure strikes.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Expect the air situation to deteriorate sharply after sunset (approx. 1730Z-1800Z). UAF units should be at maximum alert for ballistic threats following the reported UAV intercepts in Moscow.
