UAV INGRESS ON KYIV (HIGH): Multiple OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) are currently transiting the Kyiv Reservoir and approaching the capital from the North (Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 1504Z, 1523Z).
HIGH-VALUE AD ATTRITION (HIGH): Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) successfully destroyed a Russian Tor-M2 SAM and an S-350 "Vityaz" radar system (Operativnyi ZSU, 1531Z).
DEEP STRIKE - NOVOROSSIYSK (HIGH): Russian sources report an active security incident and UAV attack in Novorossiysk, targeting critical port/naval infrastructure (Dva Mayora, 1530Z).
KAB INTENSIFICATION (HIGH): Significant increase in Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes targeting Zaporizhzhia, Kupyansk, and the Donetsk sector (Air Force of the AFU, 1516Z; RBK-Ukraine, 1523Z).
NARRATIVE ESCALATION - NOVGOROD CLAIM (LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian state media is circulating claims of a Ukrainian strike on Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region; this is likely a high-level Information Operation (IO) to justify the imminent saturation strike (TASS, 1523Z).
COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (HIGH): RF sources have begun admitting the RDK Commander "liquidation" was a failure, confirming HUR MO's successful deception/counter-intel operation (Fighterbomber, 1515Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Deep Strike / Rear Areas (RF Territory): UAF has expanded the current strike cycle to Novorossiysk (1530Z). This follows the confirmed strikes in Tatarstan and Krasnodar, indicating a multi-axis strategic effort to disrupt RF logistics and naval capabilities.
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Kharkiv): Kharkiv (Kholodnohirskyi district) was struck by two "V2U" type drones targeting industrial zones (Terekhov, 1531Z). Kyiv is currently under active UAV threat (1523Z).
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Donetsk): RF aviation has significantly intensified strikes on Kupyansk. KAB launches are also confirmed in the Donetsk sector, likely supporting localized ground pushes (RBK-Ukraine, 1523Z; Air Force of the AFU, 1521Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Active KAB launches toward Zaporizhzhia city (1516Z). In Kherson, RF officials continue to report "terrorist attacks" on civilians (1535Z) to bolster the diplomatic pretext for retaliation.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile Threat: The threat remains CRITICAL. Current UAV activity in Kyiv, Pavlohrad, and the Kyiv Reservoir (1504Z, 1518Z, 1523Z) fits the profile of "pathfinding" or air defense depletion missions preceding a heavy missile wave.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of "V2U" drones in Kharkiv indicates the deployment of newer or variant OWA-UAV platforms.
Logistics/AD Status: The loss of the S-350 "Vityaz" radar (1531Z) is a significant blow to RF's medium-to-long-range theater air defense, potentially creating a window for further UAF deep strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
SBS Operations: Unmanned Systems Forces are demonstrating high lethality against RF "Priority 1" targets (Tor-M2, S-350), suggesting improved ISR-to-strike loops.
Strategic Reach: "Madyar" claims successful strikes on ten RF objects during the New Year transition, indicating sustained pressure on RF tactical rear (1512Z).
Internal Security: SBU reports a successful detention operation, likely targeting domestic saboteurs or RF assets (1504Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Pretexting for Escalation: The sudden introduction of the "Novgorod residence strike" narrative (1523Z) by figures like Medvedchuk is a classic RF escalatory signal. It is intended to frame the upcoming 1900Z strike window as a response to a direct threat to the RF leadership.
Hybrid Threats (Poland): Reports of a Ukrainian national attempting to disrupt a Polish airport (Kotsnews, 1511Z) should be treated as UNCONFIRMED and potentially a GRU-led attempt to strain UAF-Polish relations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Massed missile strike (Kalibr, Kh-101, Iskander) targeting energy and decision-making centers, likely commencing between 1800Z and 2100Z. Current UAV activity is the precursor.
MDCOA: RF may attempt a "double-tap" strike on Kyiv or Kharkiv industrial zones using high-speed ballistic missiles while Mobile Fire Groups are occupied with the current UAV wave.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Novgorod Forensics: Urgent verification of any kinetic activity in the Novgorod region to determine if the "residence strike" is a total fabrication or a localized sabotage event.
V2U Technical Specs: Collect wreckage of the drones used in Kharkiv (1531Z) to determine guidance systems and payload capabilities.
Novorossiysk Damage Assessment: Monitor satellite imagery for impact points at the Novorossiysk naval base/oil terminal following 1530Z reports.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: Kinetic activity is peaking across all domains. UAF is successfully suppressing RF air defense in the tactical depth while RF is saturating the Ukrainian rear with pathfinder drones and KABs.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is moving into the final phase of its planned "retaliation" strike. The shift toward claiming threats to Putin's residence (TASS, 1523Z) suggests they are seeking maximum political justification for a potentially high-casualty strike.
FRIENDLY FORCES: AFU's focus on high-value AD assets (SBS success) is the correct operational counter-move to facilitate continued deep strikes into RF territory (e.g., Novorossiysk).
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The narrative is heavily contested. RF is attempting to use the "mercenary" death (Australian national) and the "Polish airport" incident to isolate Ukraine from Western support during the holiday period.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The 1900Z window remains the highest risk. The presence of UAVs over the Kyiv Reservoir (1504Z) confirms the vector for a multi-directional attack on the capital.
