AFU CONFIRMATION OF DEEP STRIKES (HIGH): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has officially confirmed the overnight strikes against the Ilsky Refinery (Krasnodar) and a petroleum facility in Tatarstan (ASTRA, 1503Z; HIGH).
RF DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION (HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issued an official statement regarding the "terrorist attack" in Kherson (Tarasovka incident), signaling a transition from media propaganda to formal diplomatic pretexting (TASS, 1502Z; HIGH).
ADMINISTRATIVE DOWNTIME (MEDIUM): Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) announced the Unified Arms Register will be offline for maintenance from 2000Z 03 JAN to 0800Z 05 JAN 2026 (Operativnyi ZSU, 1504Z; HIGH).
IO NARRATIVE ADAPTATION (MEDIUM): Pro-Russian milbloggers are attempting to mitigate the Kapustin intelligence failure by framing his survival as a "Babchenko-style" staged event, indicating a shift toward damage control in the information space (Starshiy Eddy, 1501Z; MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Deep Strike / Rear Areas (RF Territory): Ukrainian strategic reach is now officially acknowledged by the AFU General Staff. The targeting of Tatarstan (~1,000km) confirms sustained long-range precision capabilities against Russia's energy-export infrastructure (ASTRA, 1503Z).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Chasiv Yar): No change from previous report. Kinetic activity remains high with UAF drone units maintaining defensive lines.
Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia): The "Tarasovka incident" has been elevated to the diplomatic level. This remains the primary narrative anchor for expected Russian kinetic "retaliation" (TASS, 1502Z).
Domestic (Ukraine): The planned maintenance of the Unified Arms Register (Jan 3-5) is a routine administrative task but creates a temporary gap in digital firearms tracking (Operativnyi ZSU, 1504Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile Threat: The threat level for a saturation strike between 1800Z and 0200Z remains CRITICAL. The Russian MFA's involvement (1502Z) suggests the political "green light" has been given to frame upcoming strikes as a formal response to the Kherson incidents.
Information Operations: RF sources are heavily leveraging cultural products (e.g., streaming service advertisements) to maintain a sense of "normalcy" and domestic stability amidst the strike exchange (Dva Mayora, 1503Z).
Intelligence Status: RF special services are in a defensive posture following the exposure of the failed Kapustin assassination plot. Narrative shifts to "staged provocations" (Babchenko references) are intended to sow doubt about HUR MO's successes (Starshiy Eddy, 1501Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate multi-domain proficiency by synchronizing deep strikes with aggressive counter-intelligence reveals (ASTRA, 1503Z).
Governance/Internal Security: The Ministry of Internal Affairs is prioritizing technical infrastructure updates (Unified Arms Register), suggesting confidence in mid-term rear-area stability despite the imminent aerial threat (Operativnyi ZSU, 1504Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Retaliation" Framing: The Russian MFA’s official statement on the Kherson "terrorist attack" is a critical indicator. This is intended to provide legal and moral cover for the anticipated strike on Ukrainian energy/governance hubs.
Internal RF Morale: The use of entertainment-focused IO (Wink streaming ads) indicates an effort to distract the Russian domestic audience from the high-profile failure of the RDK commander liquidation and the reality of deep strikes in Tatarstan.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Massed aerial bombardment involving Shahed-series UAVs followed by cruise and ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv, Odesa, and Volyn, commencing NLT 1900Z. The Russian MFA statement (1502Z) serves as the final diplomatic component of this operation.
MDCOA: Combined kinetic and cyber-offensive. RF may attempt to disrupt Ukrainian communication or administrative networks (similar to the planned Arms Register downtime window, though the downtime is currently scheduled for Jan 3).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Diplomatic Backchannels: Monitor for any specific "ultimatums" delivered via third parties following the Russian MFA statement.
UAV Pathfinding: Track current UAV ingress in Zaporizhzhia (ref: 1437Z) to determine if they are mapping gaps in AD for the main missile wave.
Internal Arms Register: Clarify if the planned maintenance (Jan 3-5) is due to routine updates or in response to a suspected breach/vulnerability.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The conflict has entered a high-tempo strike exchange phase. AFU has confirmed its capability to strike deep Russian assets, while RF has finalized the diplomatic justification for a heavy response.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is using the MFA to formalize its narrative of "Ukrainian terrorism." This transition from milblogger noise to state-level rhetoric usually precedes significant escalations in target sets.
FRIENDLY FORCES: AFU is maintaining high operational security regarding technical deployments while using the General Staff to validate successful strategic strikes to boost domestic morale.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The battle of narratives is focused on the "Tarasovka incident." RF is attempting to internationalize this claim to complicate Western support ahead of their own planned strikes.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The 1800Z-0200Z window is the primary danger zone. The synchronization of logistics (GRAU Arsenal), pathfinding UAVs, and MFA rhetoric indicates a high-confidence threat of a saturation strike.
