UAV THREAT TO ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): New wave of one-way attack (OWA) UAVs detected entering Zaporizhzhia airspace from the south (AFU Air Force, 1437Z).
HUR COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (HIGH): Ukrainian HUR MO confirmed RDK commander Denis Kapustin is alive, exposing a Russian intelligence failure involving a $500,000 bounty paid for a staged/fake assassination (Nikolaevsky Vanyok, 1448Z).
KAB STRIKE ON KHARKIV SUBURBS (HIGH): Russian aviation conducted a Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strike on the Feldman Eco Park area; visual confirmation shows significant damage to civilian animal enclosures (Tsaplienko, 1458Z).
IO ESCALATION - TARASOVKA INCIDENT (MEDIUM): RF sources claim a Ukrainian strike on a civilian vehicle in Tarasovka, Kherson, killed a child and wounded three adults; RF Ombudswoman Moskalkova is actively using this to solicit international condemnation (Basurin, 1436Z; Alex Parker, 1437Z).
DOMESTIC ANTI-CORRUPTION ACTIONS (MEDIUM): Ukrainian authorities (VAKS) applied preventive measures against several MPs and officials suspected of bribery and vote-selling (Operativnyi ZSU, 1443Z; RBK-UA, 1457Z).
FRONT-LINE ATTRITION IN CHASIV YAR (HIGH): Drone footage confirms "dozens" of Russian personnel liquidated during failed assaults in the Chasiv Yar sector, Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus, 1448Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy): Kinetic activity remains high. A KAB strike targeted the Feldman Eco Park (1458Z). Despite ongoing strikes, Kharkiv ODA reports 57 hectares of the region were demined over the last week (Synehubov, 1435Z).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Chasiv Yar): Intense close-quarters combat continues. RF forces are suffering high casualty rates in the Chasiv Yar sector, with UAF utilizing drone-corrected fires to break up Russian assault groups (Butusov Plus, 1448Z). The status of Myrnohrad remains critical and unconfirmed (ref: Sitrep 1435Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Zaporizhzhia is under immediate UAV threat from the south (1437Z). In Kherson, the situation is dominated by the Information Environment following the reported Tarasovka strike.
Rear Areas / RF Territory: Russia commissioned an innovative power unit at Kursk NPP-2 (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1444Z). In Ukraine, the NBU has slightly strengthened the Hryvnia against the USD and EUR (1445Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile: Ballistic threat warnings were active but cleared at 1441Z. KAB usage remains the primary tool for tactical suppression, particularly in the Kharkiv and Sumy axes.
Intelligence Operations: The failure of the Kapustin assassination plot (1448Z) indicates significant friction and potential corruption within RF special services (FSB/GRU), as $500k was reportedly embezzled or lost to a HUR-managed sting.
Nuclear Infrastructure: Completion of the Kursk NPP-2 unit (1444Z) provides a domestic propaganda victory for the RF, framing resilience despite border-region combat.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Intelligence: HUR MO continues to successfully disrupt RF deep-state operations, demonstrating high-level penetration of RF financial/contract-kill networks (1448Z).
Law Enforcement/Governance: Continued crackdown on parliamentary corruption (1457Z) indicates the Ukrainian government is maintaining internal stability and Western alignment despite the high kinetic tempo.
Defensive Operations: Tactical drone units are effectively holding the line at Chasiv Yar, preventing a breakthrough toward the Kramatorsk agglomeration (1448Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Mirroring" Atrocity Narrative: The Tarasovka claim (1436Z) is being integrated into the larger "Khorly" narrative. RF state media is aggressively pushing a "UAF targets children" theme to generate a moral pretext for the anticipated 1800Z saturation strike.
US Domestic Politics: Pro-Ukrainian channels are amplifying polling data suggesting a lack of support for Trump’s proposed Ukraine policy to maintain morale (1447Z).
Aestheticized Combat: "Akhmat" units continue to prioritize high-production-value music videos (1437Z) over verifiable tactical gains, likely to maintain their standing in the RF internal power struggle.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: The 1800Z-0200Z window for a mass missile/UAV strike remains HIGH PROBABILITY. All narrative precursors (Khorly, Tarasovka) are now in place for the RF to claim "retaliation."
MDCOA: RF may use the cover of the mass strike to launch an unconventional assault on the Zaporizhzhia axis, utilizing the UAV ingress currently being mapped (1437Z).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad Verification: Immediate IMINT/HUMINT required to confirm the presence of the 33rd GMRR in Myrnohrad city center.
Tarasovka Forensics: Verify the nature of the explosion in Tarasovka. Is this an actual UAF strike, a Russian false flag (IED), or an unrelated civilian accident being exploited?
Zaporizhzhia UAV Vector: Determine if the UAVs from the south are Shahed-136 or new variants, which would dictate electronic warfare (EW) response.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: Kinetic pressure is focused on Kharkiv (KABs) and Chasiv Yar (Ground Assaults). The South is currently a primary vector for UAV ingress.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF intelligence is suffering internal failures (Kapustin incident). Tactically, they are trading high personnel numbers for slow progress in the East.
FRIENDLY FORCES: Maintaining defensive integrity in the East and pursuing aggressive anti-corruption/counter-intelligence operations to ensure rear-area stability.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: RF is attempting to dominate the "humanitarian" narrative via official diplomatic channels to neutralize Western criticism of the upcoming missile campaign.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Expect the saturation strike to begin NLT 1900Z. Targets will likely include the energy grid (building on Volyn strikes) and decision-making centers in Kyiv.
