MULTIPLE KAB STRIKES (HIGH): RF aviation launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk oblasts from the east (AFU Air Force, 1427Z).
NEW UAV INGRESS (HIGH): A fresh wave of Shahed/UAVs detected entering Chernihiv from the north, indicating a multi-vector pressure campaign on the capital’s northern approaches (AFU Air Force, 1432Z).
ENERGY SECTOR ATTACK (MEDIUM): RF sources claim successful night strikes against fuel and energy infrastructure in Volyn Oblast; UAF confirms Zaporizhzhia energy workers have restored power to most consumers after a previous strike (Colonelcassad, 1433Z; Zaporizhzhia OVA, 1432Z).
UGV DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM): Deployment of "Kurier" Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV) observed on frontline roads; indicates RF attempt to automate logistical or small-unit assault support (Colonelcassad, 1416Z).
CONSOLIDATED IO CAMPAIGN (HIGH): Russian state apparatus and mil-bloggers have saturated the information space with details of the "Khorly Café Strike," reporting 24 dead and emphasizing civilian casualties (one child undergoing trepanation) to solidify the "retaliation" pretext (Mash, 1409Z; TASS, 1425Z; Alex Parker, 1422Z).
DOBROPILLIA SALIENT PRESSURE (MEDIUM): RF airborne units (VDV) reported active operations in the Dobropillia salient (north of Pokrovsk), likely aimed at widening the breach near Myrnohrad (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1416Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): UAV ingress detected toward Chernihiv (1432Z). KAB strikes on Sumy (1427Z) suggest RF is targeting staging areas or critical infrastructure to fix UAF units.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): Heavy pressure continues on the Dobropillia salient. RF is utilizing KABs (1427Z) to support ground operations. The situation in Myrnohrad remains critical; while no new confirmation of total fall has arrived, the pivot to Dobropillia suggests RF is expanding its flanking maneuver.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Zaporizhzhia has successfully stabilized its power grid following recent attacks (1432Z). In Kherson, the Khorly incident is the primary focal point for RF Information Operations (IO), with Russian officials (Moskalkova) calling for international condemnation (TASS, 1425Z).
Western Sector (Volyn): RF claims hits on energy infrastructure in Volyn (1433Z), consistent with the earlier train sabotage attempt, suggesting a concerted effort to disrupt the western logistics and energy corridor.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile: RF aviation is highly active with KABs across the entire LoC. The multi-vector UAV ingress (north via Chernihiv, south via earlier reports) serves to map AD positions ahead of the predicted 1800Z-0200Z missile window.
Tactical Innovation: The sighting of "Kurier" UGVs (1416Z) suggests a move toward unmanned logistics or combat support to mitigate high personnel losses in the Donbas.
Logistics: Continuous focus on energy (Volyn, Zaporizhzhia) indicates a "deep winter" strategy to force civilian displacement and degrade UAF rear-area stability.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C-UAS & FPV Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate high efficiency with FPV drones against RF hardware and personnel (Operativnyi ZSU, 1424Z).
Infrastructure Resilience: Rapid restoration of the Zaporizhzhia power grid (1432Z) demonstrates the high readiness of emergency repair teams despite ongoing kinetic threats.
Resource Prioritization: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirmed that military support remains the top budget priority for 2025/2026, focusing on front-line fortification and supply (1408Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Khorly Retaliation" Narrative: This has moved beyond mil-blogger speculation to official state policy (TASS, Moskalkova, Sobyanin). The emphasis on "non-military" targets (WarGonzo, 1428Z) is a classic precursor to "mirror strikes" against Ukrainian civilian centers.
Diplomatic Friction: Comments by Finnish President Stubb regarding "unfair" peace terms (1428Z) are being utilized by both sides to manage expectations for potential 2026 negotiations, though RF channels frame this as Western admission of Ukrainian defeat.
Russian Internal Criticism: Hardline "Z-channels" (Alex Parker) are using the lack of immediate "retaliation" from Putin to criticize the Kremlin's "red lines" as ineffective (1422Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will execute the predicted saturation strike (1800Z-0200Z). The narrative justification is fully established. Primary targets will be the Kyiv energy hub and Volyn logistics junctions.
MDCOA: RF uses the "Kurier" UGVs and VDV elements in the Dobropillia salient to launch a night assault, attempting to collapse the northern flank of the Pokrovsk defense while AD systems are saturated by the missile/UAV barrage.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad Ground Truth: Status of the city center is unconfirmed. Need ELINT/IMINT to verify if the 33rd GMRR has established a permanent presence.
Kurier UGV Capabilities: Determine if "Kurier" units are being used for demining, EW, or as suicide UGVs; this affects tactical defensive measures for frontline trenches.
Volyn Impact Assessment: Verify the extent of damage to the energy infrastructure in Volyn mentioned by RF sources (1433Z).
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: Frontline remains dynamic; RF utilizing KABs to mask preparations for a mass aerial strike. Energy infrastructure remains the primary strategic target.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: Transitioning to unmanned ground assets ("Kurier"). IO focus is 100% on the "Khorly Massacre" to justify imminent escalation.
FRIENDLY FORCES: High resilience in the South (Zaporizhzhia); successful FPV attrition of RF assets.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: RF is framing UAF as a "terrorist entity" to international audiences via official channels (Moskalkova).
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The 1800Z window for a mass strike is CRITICAL/HIGH PROBABILITY.
