UAF DEEP STRIKE SUCCESS (HIGH): Over-night long-range drone strikes confirmed against the Ilsky Oil Refinery (Krasnodar Krai) and a petroleum depot in Lyudinovo (Kaluga Oblast), maintaining pressure on RF energy logistics (Alex Parker Returns, 1349Z).
CONTINUED UAV INGRESS (HIGH): New waves of Shahed/UAVs detected entering Sumy and Kovel (Volyn) from the north, and Sarata (Odesa) and Zaporizhzhia from the south (AFU Air Force, 1338Z, 1339Z, 1345Z).
TRAIN SABOTAGE ATTEMPT (MEDIUM): An explosive device was discovered and neutralized on the "Budapest – Kyiv" international train; likely a hybrid operation targeting Western transit corridors (Operatsiya Z, 1356Z).
ADVANCED C-UAS TACTICS (HIGH): UAF confirmed the use of "anti-aircraft drones" to intercept Russian-Iranian Shaheds, alongside the 47th Brigade’s "Sky Wars" unit reporting 22 drone kills in a single night (Butusov Plus, 1401Z; Tsaplienko, 1348Z).
NORTHERN OFFENSIVE INTENT (MEDIUM): UAF intelligence suggests RF is finalizing plans for renewed January offensive operations targeting Vovchansk and Lyman (RBC-Ukraine, 1356Z).
RF NARRATIVE CONSOLIDATION (HIGH): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin officially amplified the "Kherson Terror" narrative, claiming 24 dead in Khorly to maximize domestic justification for imminent "retaliatory" strikes (Colonelcassad, 1357Z).
IO ADMISSION (MEDIUM): RF mil-bloggers have conceded that RDK Commander Kapustin is alive, pivoting to "it’s only a matter of time" to mitigate the failure of their previous "liquidation" claims (Dva Mayora, 1339Z; Dnevnik Desantnika, 1343Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Lyman): RF has initiated KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes against Kharkiv from the north (AFU Air Force, 1352Z). Intelligence indicates RF intent to prioritize the Vovchansk and Lyman axes for January maneuvers, likely aiming to fix UAF forces away from the Donbas (RBC-Ukraine, 1356Z).
Western Sector (Volyn/Trans-border): The Kovel vector remains active with UAVs entering from the north (1338Z). The IED discovery on the Budapest-Kyiv train (1356Z) indicates a heightened threat to Rear Area Security and international supply lines.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): UAV threats are currently active over Sarata (Odesa) and Zaporizhzhia (AFU Air Force, 1339Z, 1345Z). In Kherson, the RF is heavily utilizing the Khorly incident (1357Z) for political signaling.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas): While ground movement reports are light in this 30-minute window, the 47th Brigade’s high interception rate (1348Z) suggests intense RF aerial reconnaissance and FPV pressure continues in this sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile: RF is actively using KABs in the north. The combination of sustained UAV ingress and the "retaliation" narrative for the Ilsky/Lyudinovo strikes strongly supports the prediction of a major missile salvo during the 1800Z-0200Z window.
Hybrid Operations: The Budapest-Kyiv train IED marks an escalation in kinetic hybrid warfare within the EU/NATO-Ukraine transit corridor, likely intended to signal vulnerability to Western supporters.
Tactical Adaptation: RF is increasingly utilizing "Molniya" drones, including fiber-optic guided variants (difficult to jam), though UAF reports successful interceptions (Sternenko, 1351Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Unmanned Systems (C-UAS): UAF is demonstrating high proficiency in multi-layered drone defense, integrating specialized electronic detection (1335Z) and interceptor drones to preserve expensive AD missiles.
Strategic Attrition: Success against RF refineries (1349Z) demonstrates UAF’s ability to bypass RF air defenses in the rear to strike high-value economic targets.
Morale & Personnel: 152nd Separate Jaeger Brigade and DShV (Airborne) released high-production New Year messaging to maintain domestic morale and support recruitment (General Staff ZSU, 1352Z; DShV, 1403Z).
Information environment / disinformation
European Intervention Narrative: Reports (citing Die Welt) regarding a 20th EU sanctions package and potential European troop deployments are circulating (1355Z). This is likely being monitored by the RF to fuel "NATO escalation" propaganda.
"Retaliation" Pretext: The Khorly incident is being treated as a "bloody terror attack" by top RF officials (Sobyanin), transitioning from mil-blogger chatter to official state-level narrative to justify high-intensity kinetic strikes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will launch a saturation strike (UAVs followed by Cruise/Ballistic missiles) between 1800Z and 0200Z. Primary targets: Kyiv (Decision centers), Energy Grid (Statewide), and Odesa (Port infrastructure).
MDCOA: RF utilizes the chaos of the New Year strike and the Sabotage/Hybrid threats in the West to launch a localized surprise push in the Vovchansk or Lyman sectors tonight, earlier than the projected "January plans," to catch UAF during holiday rotations.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Train IED Attribution: Urgent need for forensic data on the Budapest-Kyiv explosive device to determine if it was an SVR/GRU operation or a local partisan cell.
Fiber-Optic Drone Density: Monitor the volume of fiber-optic guided "Molniya" drones; if deployment increases, current EW/Jamming suites will require immediate tactical revision.
Vovchansk/Lyman Force Composition: Verify if the "January plans" involve newly formed reserves or redeployments from the Pokrovsk axis.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION: UAF successfully struck RF rear energy; RF is responding with KABs and multi-vector UAV ingress.
ENEMY: Framing deep strikes as "terror" to justify a massive evening barrage. Preparing new vectors in Vovchansk/Lyman.
