MULTI-VECTOR UAV INGRESS (HIGH): New Shahed/UAV waves detected entering Ukrainian airspace toward Kovel (West), Sumy (North), and Odesa (South) from the Black Sea (AFU Air Force, 1313Z, 1317Z, 1324Z).
AERIAL ADAPTATION (MEDIUM): Footage confirmed UAF utilizing Yak-52 trainer aircraft to intercept Russian BM-35 reconnaissance drones at low altitudes, indicating resourceful preservation of high-end AD interceptors (Operativniy ZSU, 1315Z).
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY (HIGH): Defense Minister Umerov is in Ankara meeting with Turkish FM Hakan Fidan, likely focusing on maritime security and defense industrial cooperation (RBC-Ukraine, 1327Z).
UNCONFIRMED EXTERNAL FUNDING (LOW): Russian sources claim the UAE plans to fund Ukrainian drone production. While unconfirmed by UA/UAE sources, this indicates a potential shift in regional defense financing (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1329Z).
RF NARRATIVE PIVOT (MEDIUM): RF state media and mil-bloggers have shifted focus to alleged UAF drone strikes on civilian vehicles in Kherson (Tarasovka/Horly), reporting civilian casualties to justify "retaliatory" strikes (TASS, 1314Z; Alex Parker Returns, 1318Z).
DEEP STRIKE VOLUME (MEDIUM): RF MoD claims to have intercepted 58 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions within an 8-hour window, suggesting a sustained UAF long-range campaign (TASS, 1324Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv): Reconnaissance UAVs are active near Kharkiv and northern Chernihiv, likely acting as spotters for imminent artillery or missile strikes (AFU Air Force, 1305Z, 1324Z). Shahed ingress continues from the north toward Sumy.
Western Sector (Volyn): Unusual Shahed vector detected toward Kovel from the north, suggesting a potential expansion of the target list to western logistical hubs (AFU Air Force, 1317Z).
Southern Sector (Kherson/Odesa): High tension in Kherson following RF claims of a UAF strike on a civilian vehicle in Tarasovka. In Odesa, new UAV threats are approaching from the Black Sea (AFU Air Force, 1324Z).
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad): No new tactical ground updates since the 1304Z report, but the sector remains the most "grim" according to baseline context.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Reconnaissance: Increased density of Russian reconnaissance UAVs (BM-35 and others) suggests the RF is mapping UAF positions ahead of the anticipated 1800Z-0200Z strike window.
Information Operations: RF sources (Rybar, Kotsnews) are aggressively attempting to frame the "resurrection" of RDK Commander Kapustin as a "Babchenko-style" publicity stunt, aiming to neutralize the embarrassment of the GUR sting operation (Rybar, 1333Z; Kotsnews, 1330Z).
Retaliation Framing: The coordinated reporting of civilian deaths in Kherson by multiple RF outlets (TASS, Koteonk, Starshiy Edda) is a classic precursor to "justifying" strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and decision-making centers.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Aviation: UAF is successfully integrating low-speed, propeller-driven aircraft (Yak-52) for "drone hunting," providing a cost-effective solution for rear-area security against recon UAVs.
Diplomatic Offensive: Umerov’s presence in Turkey (1332Z) suggests Ukraine is shoring up Black Sea security guarantees or seeking Turkish mediation/production support.
Internal Morale: President Zelenskyy signed a decree awarding 53 Ukrainians for bravery in energy restoration and medical service, reinforcing a narrative of national resilience (Zelenskiy Official, 1310Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Terrorist" Narrative: RF channels are saturating the environment with claims of "Ukrainian Nazism" and "terrorism" (Medvedev via Koteonk, 1330Z) to prep domestic audiences for a high-intensity kinetic New Year's Day.
UAE Funding Rumors: The report of UAE funding for Ukrainian drones (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1329Z) may be an RF attempt to pressure the UAE or signal growing Russian frustration with neutral states' shifting postures.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will execute a coordinated missile and Shahed blitz between 1800Z and 0200Z. Expect the "terrorism in Kherson" and "Kapustin fraud" narratives to be used as the political justification for targeting Kyiv and Odesa.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the high volume of recon UAVs currently over Kharkiv/Chernihiv to launch precise Iskander strikes against UAF reserve concentrations, attempting to prevent reinforcements from reaching the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad sector.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verification of UAE-UA Defense Deal: Urgently require SIGINT or diplomatic confirmation of UAE funding for UAF drone programs.
Kovel Vector: Determine if the UAVs moving toward Kovel originated from Belarusian airspace or are a deep-loop maneuver from the north.
Myrnohrad LOC: Despite the IO focus, physical confirmation of the frontline in Myrnohrad is still required to assess the risk of a breach into the Dnipro administrative region.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION: Multi-vector UAV ingress is underway; AD is active.
ENEMY: Shifting from IO damage control (Kapustin) to strike justification (Kherson).
FRIENDLY: Resourceful AD adaptations (Yak-52) and high-level diplomacy (Turkey).
