Situation Update (1305Z 01 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE COUP (HIGH): Ukraine’s GUR confirmed RDK Commander Denis Kapustin is alive; the reported "assassination" was a sting operation that allegedly netted $500,000 from Russian special services (Operativний ЗСУ, 1247Z; STERNENKO, 1252Z).
- AERIAL THREAT PERSISTENCE (HIGH): New waves of Shahed/UAV ingress detected moving toward Sumy (from the North) and Sarata, Odesa region (AFU Air Force, 1239Z, 1240Z).
- POKROVSK/MYRNOHRAD SECTOR FRICTION (MEDIUM): RF sources released footage of captured UAF personnel in Myrnohrad (Dimitrov), claiming they were tasked with a "flag-planting" mission (Poddubny, 1255Z).
- REAR AREA SECURITY (MEDIUM): A Ukrainian citizen was detained at Warsaw Airport with radio-jamming equipment, indicating ongoing sensitive procurement/logistics friction in Europe (Operatsia Z, 1300Z).
- INTERNAL SECURITY SUCCESS (HIGH): Ukraine’s Prosecutor General sentenced a Russian agent in Zaporizhzhia to 15 years for transmitting strategic coordinates (Office of the Prosecutor General, 1300Z).
- TACTICAL INTERDICTION (MEDIUM): RF forces are utilizing "Okhotnik" drones to target UAF rotation vehicles on the Konstantinovka axis (NM DNR, 1304Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
Battlefield Geometry:
The frontline remains highly volatile, particularly in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad salient. While the previous daily report suggested a "grim" outlook, current footage of UAF personnel within Myrnohrad city limits—even in a captive state—indicates that the city is not yet fully consolidated by RF forces and remains a site of active, contested operations.
Weather/Environmental Factors:
Clear winter conditions are facilitating high-frequency UAV operations and "Okhotnik" drone interdiction strikes against logistics and rotations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
- Information Operations Recovery: The RF MoD and state media are pivoting to dismiss the GUR/Kapustin operation as a "Babchenko-style" fake, attempting to mitigate the embarrassment of the reported $500k loss (Colonelcassad, 1303Z; Alex Parker Returns, 1257Z).
- Deep Strike Vector: The continued launch of UAVs toward Odesa and Sumy confirms the MLCOA from the previous report—a sustained New Year strike campaign targeting infrastructure and air defense saturation.
- Interdiction Tactics: The use of "Okhotnik" drones for "rotation hunting" on the Konstantinovka axis indicates a focus on disrupting UAF tactical sustainment to degrade the frontline without high-intensity infantry assaults.
Logistics & Sustainment:
- SAR analysis from the 260th GRAU Arsenal (Score 27.24) remains the primary indicator of heavy munition readiness for subsequent missile volleys.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
- Asymmetric Success: The GUR sting operation against Russian special services provides a significant morale boost and demonstrates high-level penetration of RF intelligence funding channels.
- Defensive Resilience: Despite RF claims of Myrnohrad's fall, UAF units appear to be conducting high-risk counter-presence missions (e.g., the flag-planting attempt) to challenge RF control of urban centers.
- Counter-Espionage: The sentencing of the Zaporizhzhia agent indicates effective domestic security operations to blind RF targeting in the southern sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- RDK Counter-Narrative: The "Kapustin Alive" reveal is the dominant theme, successfully seizing the initiative from RF claims of his elimination. Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker) are openly criticizing the FSB for being "easily bought" (1257Z).
- Dehumanization Escalation: RF media (TASS, Marochko) is intensifying the narrative that UAF strikes are "money-making" schemes for the Ukrainian leadership, likely to justify continued strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
- Nationalist Commemoration: UAF-aligned channels are marking Jan 1 (Stepan Bandera's birthday), which RF sources are using to reinforce "denazification" justifications.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
RF will proceed with the anticipated major missile/UAV strike between 1800Z and 0200Z. The humiliation regarding the Kapustin operation may lead to the inclusion of "symbolic" targets in Kyiv (e.g., GUR headquarters or leadership residences) as a compensatory domestic victory.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
RF forces, capitalizing on the tactical "porousness" in the Myrnohrad sector, launch a multi-regiment night assault supported by thermal-equipped UAVs to secure a decisive breakthrough toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border while the national AD grid is preoccupied with the New Year's Blitz.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- Myrnohrad Line of Contact: Urgent requirement for geolocation of the POW footage provided by Poddubny (1255Z) to establish the current RF depth of penetration into Dimitrov.
- Warsaw Jammer Origin: Investigation into the detained Ukrainian in Poland to determine if the jamming equipment was for frontline UAF use or a private/third-party smuggling operation.
- RF Aviation Readiness: Monitor Tu-95MS and Tu-160 activity at Engels and Olenya airbases; ground logistics scores (27.24) suggest the "kinetic" phase of the strike is imminent.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
- Operational Security (OPSEC) Alert: High-ranking personnel (specifically GUR/RDK) should vary locations immediately; RF retaliation for the Kapustin sting will likely be kinetic and targeted.
- Tactical Mobility: Units on the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk axes must avoid daylight rotations and use terrain shielding to counter "Okhotnik" interdiction drones.
- Strategic Communications: Amplify the "FSB corruption/failure" narrative surrounding the $500k loss to exacerbate internal RF security service friction.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
