Situation Report

Situation Update (1105Z 01 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• CONFIRMED STRATEGIC STRIKE - ILSKY REFINERY (HIGH): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GS AFU) and "Madyar" confirmed a successful strike on the Ilsky Oil Refinery (Krasnodar Krai) and several targets in occupied Donetsk Oblast occurring between 2359Z and 0004Z (1042Z, 1050Z, GS AFU/Madyar, HIGH).
• ZAPORIZHZHIA CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE HIT (HIGH): A Russian strike on a critical infrastructure object in Zaporizhzhia district has resulted in 4,000+ subscribers losing electricity (1100Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH).
• LIPETSK AIR DANGER (MEDIUM): A "red" air danger regime has been implemented in Lipetsk Oblast, indicating an expansion of the UAF drone threat vector into the Russian central rear (1041Z, Artamonov, MEDIUM).
• KHORLY NARRATIVE SYNCHRONIZATION (MEDIUM): RF-installed officials (Saldo) are now specifically timing the Khorly incident to coincide with President Putin's New Year address to maximize emotional/political impact (1040Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
• WEATHER DEGRADATION - NORTHERN VECTOR (MEDIUM): Forecasts for Bryansk Oblast indicate heavy snow and winds up to 17 m/s starting evening Jan 1. This will likely impede tactical UAV and rotary-wing operations (1055Z, Bogomaz, MEDIUM).

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)

Battlefield Geometry: The conflict continues to oscillate between deep-rear strategic attrition and tactical localized assaults. The UAF is successfully maintaining a "Long-Range Fire" domain, evidenced by the Ilsky refinery strike. Conversely, the RF is focusing on infrastructure degradation in the Zaporizhzhia region. The active "grey zone" remains fluid in Donetsk TOT, where the GS AFU reports multiple successful strikes on military concentrations (1050Z).

Weather/Environmental Factors:

• Northern Border (Bryansk/Sumy/Chernihiv): Impending storm conditions (17 m/s wind) will create a "tactical pause" for light UAVs but may provide acoustic cover for heavy vehicle movement or infiltration.
• Space Weather: A G3-level geomagnetic storm is forecast for Jan 2-3, which may disrupt high-frequency (HF) communications and satellite navigation (GPS/GLONASS) for both sides (1104Z, TASS).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

Capabilities & Intentions:

• Zaporizhzhia Front: The 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (35th Army) is active in the Zaporizhzhia sector, utilizing FPV/reconnaissance UAVs to engage UAF manpower (1103Z, Colonelcassad). This indicates the RF is maintaining offensive pressure despite the focus on infrastructure.
• UAV Adaptations: RF forces continue to refine small UAV launches, including documented use of catapult systems to extend range or bypass local terrain obstacles (1053Z, Fighterbomber).
• Aerial Vectors: Shahed-type UAVs have transited northern Zhytomyr and are now on course for Rivne Oblast, suggesting a shift from Kyiv-centric targets toward Western Ukrainian energy/logistics nodes (1058Z, Air Force UA).

Tactical Adaptations:

• RF forces are operating UAVs directly over Huliaipole, indicating high-intensity ISR coverage of the Zaporizhzhia frontline to facilitate localized "spoiling" attacks (1052Z, Voin DV).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

Posture and Readiness:

• Deep Strike Capability: The synchronization of the Ilsky strike (0004Z) with New Year's transitions demonstrates a high level of mission planning and C2 (Command and Control) maturity within the Unmanned Systems Forces.
• Internal Security: The Ukrainian General Prosecutor's Office is maintaining domestic stability through anti-corruption measures, specifically targeting high-value fraud (30M+ UAH) in Rivne Oblast (1100Z).

Recent Successes:

• Refinery Campaign: The Ilsky refinery strike represents a sustained effort to degrade RF's fuel and lubricants (POL) supply chain, specifically supporting the Southern Group of Forces.
• Donetsk TOT: Coordinated strikes on military concentrations in occupied Donetsk (1054Z) likely aimed at disrupting RF reserves intended for the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad axis.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation:

• Retaliation Framing: Pro-RU channels (Alex Parker Returns) are circulating narratives linking the Valdai and Khorly incidents to potential "Oreshnik" missile usage. This is a clear attempt to build psychological "escalation dominance" (1056Z).
• False Flag Claims: Some dissident sources are labeling the Khorly incident as "Ryazan Sugar" (referencing the 1999 FSB apartment bombings), suggesting a Russian-staged provocation. [UNCONFIRMED - LOW CONFIDENCE] (1050Z).
• Western Decline: Basurin and other RF proxies are leveraging Spanish media (El País) to signal the collapse of the Transatlantic alliance, aiming to demoralize UAF forces regarding long-term support (1100Z).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAVs currently over Zhytomyr/Rivne will attempt to strike regional energy substations or logistical hubs within the next 3-6 hours. RF will continue "harassment" strikes on Zaporizhzhia's periphery to keep UAF reserves fixed.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A "Winter Blitz" ground assault in the Bryansk/Sumy sector, leveraging the visual/acoustic cover of the Jan 1-2 snowstorm to attempt a border breach or seize a tactical foothold before UAF reinforcements can redeploy.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. BDA Ilsky: Satellite imagery or HUMINT confirmation of the extent of damage to the distillation units at Ilsky Refinery.
2. Lipetsk Vectors: Identification of the specific flight paths and quantities of drones triggering the air danger in Lipetsk.
3. Zaporizhzhia Infra Status: Identification of the specific "critical infrastructure" object hit in Zaporizhzhia to assess long-term grid stability.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Electronic Warfare (EW) Calibration: Prepare for geomagnetic storm (Jan 2-3) impact on GPS-guided munitions; switch to inertial guidance or visual navigation protocols where possible.
2. Anti-UAV Measures (West): Alert mobile fire groups in Rivne and Volyn Oblasts to the incoming Zhytomyr vector.
3. Strategic Messaging: Counter the Khorly "civilian" narrative by highlighting the specific military targets struck in Donetsk TOT during the same timeframe.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//