Situation Report

Situation Update (1035Z 01 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• EXPANDED DEEP STRIKE CAMPAIGN (HIGH): Ukrainian units (specifically "Madyar") confirm the first wave of 2026 deep strikes targeted 10 separate Russian oil refineries and depots. This corroborates earlier reports of the Almetyevsk strike and suggests a much larger, synchronized operation (1024Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
• KHORLY CASUALTY ESCALATION (MEDIUM): Occupation authorities report the death toll from the Khorly incident has risen to 24+, with recovery efforts ongoing. RF leadership (Volodin/Miroshnik) is using this to aggressively frame UAF and European sponsors for "war crimes" (1017Z, 1032Z, TASS/Poddyubny, MEDIUM).
• KONSTANTINOVKA TACTICAL SHIFT (MEDIUM): RF paratrooper (VDV) units have published updated tactical maps indicating new movements and strongholds in the Konstantinovka direction, suggesting a potential broadening of the offensive front beyond the Pokrovsk axis (1006Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM).
• AERIAL THREAT - NORTHERN VECTOR (HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs are currently transiting Chernihiv Oblast toward the Kyiv Reservoir, with a secondary group in northern Zhytomyr moving west, indicating a multi-pronged New Year's Day loitering munition wave (1018Z, 1019Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
• KAB STRIKE - KHARKIV SUBURBS (HIGH): A Russian KAB impact was confirmed in an "ecopark" in the Kharkiv suburbs. No immediate casualties reported as the munition struck open ground, but it confirms continued tactical aviation pressure on the northern border (1028Z, 1031Z, Kharkiv ODA/RBK, HIGH).

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)

Battlefield Geometry: The operational focus is expanding. While the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis remains the primary ground effort, RF is activating the Konstantinovka direction (Donetsk) with paratrooper elements. In the northern sector, RF continues using KABs to harass Kharkiv's periphery. The deep rear is now a primary theater, with UAF striking 10 RF energy targets simultaneously.

Weather/Environmental Factors: Visibility and flight conditions remain sufficient for UAV transits over Central Ukraine. The focus on the Kyiv Reservoir/Hydroelectric infrastructure by incoming Shaheds suggests intent to exploit frozen or near-frozen conditions for maximum infrastructure stress.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

Capabilities & Intentions:

• VDV (Paratroopers): The deployment and active mapping by VDV units near Konstantinovka suggests RF may be attempting to fix UAF reserves or create a pincer toward Kramatorsk/Sloviansk to offset the slow progress in urban Myrnohrad.
• Aviation/KABs: RF continues to utilize KABs as a low-cost, high-impact tool for both tactical support (Dnipropetrovsk border) and psychological pressure (Kharkiv suburbs).
• Course of Action (COA): RF is currently executing a "Total Information War" COA. By saturating the information space with Khorly casualty figures and "Western involvement" claims, they seek to justify an impending escalation in missile strikes.

Tactical Adaptations:

• RF is shifting road signage standards (GOST/Rosstandart) within Russia, likely a domestic control measure to manage logistics or civilian movement during increased deep-strike frequency (1031Z, Novosti Moskvy).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

Posture and Readiness:

• Deep Strike Units: UAF long-range drone units have demonstrated high operational tempo, hitting 10 targets in the first 10 hours of 2026. This indicates a pre-staged, high-volume inventory of long-range assets.
• Air Defense (AD): AD units are currently engaged in tracking and intercepting multi-vector UAVs over Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr. The vector toward the Kyiv Reservoir remains a priority threat.

Recent Successes:

• Successful engagement of 10 RF oil/energy facilities (1024Z).
• Ongoing containment of RF ground advances in the "grey zone" of Myrnohrad despite heavy KAB use.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation:

• Khorly Narrative: RF officials (Volodin, Miroshnik, Saldo) are synchronized in their messaging, using the Khorly strike to delegitimize President Zelenskyy’s "peace" rhetoric. This is a HIGH CONFIDENCE effort to create a "Bloody New Year" narrative for domestic RF consumption.
• Swiss Resort Fire: Pro-RU channels (Basurin) are amplifying a fire at a Swiss ski resort (1023Z). This is likely a "whataboutism" tactic or a "Western chaos" narrative to distract from the successful UAF strikes on Russian soil.
• Historical Revisionism: Outlets like WarGonzo are publishing year-end "victory" summaries for 2025 to bolster morale and mask recent logistical setbacks (1032Z).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Shahed UAVs currently over Zhytomyr and the Kyiv Reservoir will attempt to strike energy nodes or pumping stations in the next 2-4 hours. RF will continue KAB launches toward the eastern Dnipropetrovsk border to maintain the threat of a cross-border ground breach.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "double-tap" strike. Following the current Shahed wave, RF launches ballistic missiles (Iskander-M) or Kinzhals targeting the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) or the Kaniv axis, leveraging the current AD saturation.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. BDA 10-Target Strike: Specific identification and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for all 10 oil/energy facilities mentioned by "Madyar."
2. Konstantinovka VDV Strength: Determine the unit size and heavy equipment status of the paratrooper elements appearing on RF tactical maps (1006Z).
3. Kyiv Reservoir Intent: Monitor if UAVs are targeting the dam infrastructure itself or the surrounding substation network.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Infrastructure Protection: Increase Mobile Fire Group (MFG) patrols around the Kyiv Reservoir and northern Kyiv power hubs.
2. Dnipropetrovsk Border: Deploy additional electronic warfare (EW) assets to the eastern Dnipropetrovsk administrative border to counter the precision of RF KAB-launching platforms.
3. Strategic Communication: Proactively release technical data or footage from the 10-target oil strike to dominate the news cycle and counter the RF’s Khorly "war crime" narrative.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//