DEEP STRIKE - TATARSTAN (MEDIUM): Ukrainian long-range UAVs are currently attacking the Northern Commodity Park in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan. Visuals confirm ongoing kinetic activity against Russian energy infrastructure over 1,200km from the border (STERNENKO, 0728Z).
ONGOING UAV THREAT - ODESA/ZHYTOMYR (HIGH): New UAV groups detected entering Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea (0711Z) and transiting Zhytomyr Oblast toward Buchmany (0728Z). This confirms the "second echelon" strike pattern predicted in the 0705Z report (Air Force UA, 0711Z, 0728Z).
RUSSIAN LOSS SUMMARY 2025 (HIGH): General Staff ZSU released official infographics detailing cumulative Russian personnel and equipment losses for the full calendar year 2025 (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 0722Z).
UNCONFIRMED RF INTERCEPTION CLAIMS (LOW): Russian sources claim to have intercepted 168 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. This is currently uncorroborated by internal BDA (Операция Z, 0705Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR KINETIC ACTIVITY (MEDIUM): Russian MoD reports artillery strikes on Ukrainian strongholds in Ternovatoye, while Russian units released celebratory footage from Hulyaipole (MoD Russia, 0729Z; Воин DV, 0720Z).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING (MEDIUM): French President Macron announced a forthcoming high-level security event to formalize further obligations and support for Ukraine (Оперативний ЗСУ, 0705Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Deep Strike Operations (Russian Rear)
Almetyevsk (Tatarstan): A significant strike is underway against the Northern Commodity Park. This target is a critical hub for oil storage and transit. Impact on Russian fuel logistics for the winter campaign is likely if storage tanks are compromised.
2. Southern Sector (Odesa/Kherson/Zaporizhzhia)
Odesa/Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi: Persistent UAV ingress from the Black Sea. Air defense remains active; local residents are advised to remain in shelters (Air Force UA, 0711Z).
Kherson: Russian state media is aggressively promoting a narrative of "Ukrainian terrorism" following strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kherson and Crimea, claiming 13 hospitalized casualties (TASS, 0731Z; АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 0729Z).
Zaporizhzhia: The 0718Z all-clear for Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicates a temporary lull, though tactical artillery exchanges continue in the Ternovatoye-Hulyaipole axis (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0718Z; MoD Russia, 0729Z).
3. Northern/Central Sector (Zhytomyr)
Zhytomyr Transit: UAVs are moving northwest from Nova Borova toward Buchmany (0728Z). This suggests a continuation of the effort to bypass Kyiv's main AD concentration to strike western logistical nodes.
4. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk)
Baseline Update: No new confirmed reports regarding the status of Myrnohrad since the 1500Z daily report. The sector remains under extreme pressure; the lack of new "victory" claims from RF sources since 0700Z may indicate a slowing of the RF advance or a consolidation phase.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The RF is maintaining a "rolling" drone offensive. By spacing out waves (overnight saturation followed by morning tactical probes), they seek to exhaust mobile fire group (MFG) crews and force the expenditure of expensive interceptors on low-cost decoys.
Logistics: Strike on Almetyevsk indicates Russian energy infrastructure remains vulnerable despite increased domestic AD focus.
Tactical Adaptation: RF MoD continues to emphasize "Vostok" group artillery effectiveness in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Ternovatoye), suggesting a reliance on massed fires to compensate for personnel fatigue after NYE.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Strikes: Successful penetration of Tatarstan airspace demonstrates continued improvement in long-range UAV flight profiling and EW bypass capabilities.
Information Operations: GenStaff ZSU is focused on "Year-in-Review" messaging, emphasizing high RF loss rates in 2025 to bolster national morale (0722Z).
Civilian Integration: Ukraine has officially joined the EU roaming zone ("Roam Like At Home"), a significant non-military milestone for European integration (РБК-Україна, 0715Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Retaliation" Narrative: Russian propaganda (Simonyan/TASS) is heavily utilizing imagery of the Kherson/Khorly strikes to frame UAF as "sadists" and "gestapo-like" (TASS, 0724Z). This is likely a precursor to justifying further strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers.
Distraction Tactics: Russian-aligned channels are circulating reports of a church fire in Amsterdam (Basurin, 0729Z) and conflict summaries in Africa (Rybar, 0733Z). These are assessed as efforts to dilute the Ukrainian operational narrative in the global information space.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment in the Odesa and Zhytomyr corridors. RF will likely use the "Kherson retaliation" pretext for a high-precision missile strike (Iskander or Kh-101) against Kyiv or Odesa before 1800Z.
MDCOA: A renewed ground assault on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis utilizing the cover of ongoing UAV strikes to mask mechanized movements.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad Ground Truth: Urgent requirement for SIGINT or drone reconnaissance to confirm the current Line of Contact (LOC) within Myrnohrad city limits.
Almetyevsk BDA: Need satellite imagery or local ground-source confirmation of the extent of damage at the Northern Commodity Park.
UAV Launch Sites: Identify the specific launch locations for the 0700Z-wave drones entering from the Black Sea to facilitate counter-battery or pre-emptive strikes.
