UAV SATURATION SUMMARY (HIGH): Official figures confirm Russia launched 205 UAVs overnight (approx. 130 "Shaheds"). Ukrainian Air Force intercepted/suppressed 176 targets, an 85% success rate (General Staff ZSU, 0654Z; RBK-Ukraine, 0635Z).
ODESA INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT (HIGH): Multiple waves of UAVs successfully struck energy and residential infrastructure in Odesa Oblast. Damage to the power grid is confirmed (Operativno ZSU, 0651Z).
NEW UAV VECTOR - ZHYTOMYR (MEDIUM): A new group of UAVs has been detected over Zhytomyr Oblast, specifically transiting toward Malyn. This indicates a persistent, post-NYE strike effort (Air Force UA, 0639Z).
KHORLY CASUALTY ESCALATION (MEDIUM): Russian-appointed officials claim 24 dead and 50+ injured following a strike on a hotel/cafe in Khorly, Kherson Oblast. This is being heavily leveraged for "retaliation" propaganda (Mash na Donbasse, 0650Z).
EXTENDED NORTHERN SHELLING (HIGH): Eight settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were targeted by Russian strikes over the last 24 hours, maintaining pressure on the border axis (Oleg Synegubov, 0641Z).
GLOBAL ADVERSARY SIGNALING (MEDIUM): Reports detail a large-scale PLA military exercise around Taiwan ("Mission of Justice – 2025") conducted Dec 29-30. While external to the AOR, it suggests synchronized pressure from Russian partners (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 0703Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Odesa/Kherson): Odesa remains the primary kinetic focus of the drone campaign's aftermath. The energy infrastructure damage in Odesa suggests a successful "leaking" of the saturation screen. In Kherson, the Khorly incident (Kotsnews, 0659Z) provides the RF with a focal point for information operations.
Central/Northern Sector (Zhytomyr): Detection of UAVs in the Malyn direction (0639Z) suggests the RF is probing for gaps in the northern AD umbrella, likely targeting logistics routes or energy hubs connecting to the Western regions.
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia): Persistent cross-border shelling in Kharkiv (0641Z). On the Zaporizhzhia front, tactical indicators suggest logistical strain within some Russian units, evidenced by direct appeals for public financial support for the 291st Regiment/Zaporizhzhia axis (Dva Majora, 0701Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Persistence Maneuver: After the massive 205-UAV wave, the RF is not pausing. The ingress into Zhytomyr and Volyn (STERNENKO, 0637Z) suggests a "second echelon" of lighter drone strikes intended to strike targets while AD crews are in a reload/rest cycle.
Logistical Status: New Year greetings from ZALA Aero (0703Z) underscore the continued production and deployment of loitering munitions (Lancets), likely intended for the tactical frontline in Zaporizhzhia and Donbas.
Information Warfare Shift: Russian state media (TASS, 0658Z) is pivoting to "legal warfare" and emotional manipulation by claiming Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" databases are targeting children. This supports the broader narrative of Ukraine as a "terrorist state" following the Khorly incident.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: Sustained high-performance levels with 176 interceptions. However, the confirmed hits in Odesa indicate depletion of local interceptor stocks or saturation of fire channels.
Force Generation: The Command of the Air Assault Forces (DShV) has launched a high-production recruitment campaign (0701Z), indicating a priority on bolstering elite mobile units for 2026 operations.
Strategic Discipline: Ukrainian leadership maintained a hardline stance in NYE addresses; RF sources are spinning Zelensky's refusal to abandon Donbas as an "abandonment of peace" (Operatsiya Z, 0635Z).
National Morale: Observed nationwide minute of silence (0900 local) indicates high levels of social cohesion and adherence to military-civilian remembrance protocols (General Staff ZSU, 0659Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Miscontextualization: Russian "War Correspondent" channels (Operatsiya Z) are actively misrepresenting the Ukrainian New Year's address to demoralize occupied populations.
Distraction/False Flag: Claims by Lukashenko regarding Putin's security (Colonelcassad, 0635Z) are assessed as LOW confidence/Propaganda designed to project a "besieged" image.
Legal IO: The TASS report on children in databases (0658Z) is a classic reflexive control tactic aimed at Western human rights observers.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will conduct BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) using Orlan-10/Supercam UAVs over Odesa and Zhytomyr. Expect follow-on precision strikes (Iskander-M or KAB) on energy substations identified as "partially damaged" during the overnight wave.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Utilizing the "retaliation for Khorly" pretext, RF launches a concentrated cruise missile strike from the Black Sea Fleet (Kalibr) targeting Odesa's port infrastructure while the local energy grid is compromised.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Odesa Grid Assessment: Need specific BDA on which substations were hit to determine the duration of the power deficit.
Zhytomyr Vector: Identify if the UAVs over Malyn are Shahed-series or new long-range reconnaissance assets.
PLA-RF Coordination: Determine if the Taiwan "Mission of Justice" exercises involved any SIGINT/ELINT sharing with Russian forces that could impact NATO-standard equipment in Ukraine.
