MASSIVE UAV SATURATION (HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force confirms the interception/suppression of 176 out of 205 Russian UAVs launched during the New Year’s Eve barrage. This represents one of the largest single-night drone operations of the conflict (0634Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
KAB STRIKES - ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): Launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) detected against Zaporizhzhia. This marks a tactical transition from long-range UAVs to short-range precision-guided munitions on the southern front (0618Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
HYBRID WARFARE - BALTIC SEA (HIGH): Confirmed damage to a telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Estonia. This follows previous reports of subsea infrastructure damage in the Gulf of Finland, suggesting a systematic campaign against NATO-linked maritime assets (0622Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
LEGAL EXPLOITATION - KHERSON (MEDIUM): Russian Investigative Committee has opened a "terrorism" criminal case regarding the alleged strike in Khorly, claiming 24 civilian deaths. This formalizes the Kremlin's "retaliation" narrative (0627Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
DEEP STRIKE RUMORS - NOVGOROD (LOW): Reports of a Ukrainian drone strike on Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region are circulating; however, WSJ/CIA sources have NOT confirmed these claims. Likely a psychological operation or unverified social media rumor (0605Z, ASTRA, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv): High kinetic activity. In addition to KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia, new UAV groups are transiting Mykolaiv Oblast on a North-West heading (0623Z), likely targeting Odesa's rear or the Vinnytsia axis.
Western Sector (Rivne/Volyn): Air defense successfully intercepted targets over Rivne Oblast overnight (0631Z). This sector remains under pressure as the RF attempts to bypass primary AD hubs to hit western logistics.
Dnipropetrovsk Axis: Local AD units neutralized 3 UAVs overnight (0621Z). While the volume was lower than the Western sector, this confirms the RF is maintaining persistent pressure on the Dnipro approaches.
Maritime/Hybrid Domain: The Baltic Sea has become a primary theater for RF hybrid operations. The destruction of the Finland-Estonia cable indicates the RF is testing NATO's response thresholds to infrastructure sabotage.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shift: Following the mass 205-UAV wave, the RF is pivoting to KAB strikes in the South. This suggests a "staggered" strike methodology designed to overwhelm AD during the UAV wave and then exploit exhausted local defenses with heavy aviation munitions.
Information Maneuver: The RF is using the "Khorly Tragedy" (24 dead) to pivot from an aggressor role to a victim role. The involvement of the Investigative Committee (SK) suggests this incident will be used to justify a transition to more destructive "retaliation" strikes, potentially targeting Ukrainian decision-making centers.
Hybrid Capability: The RF's focus on subsea cables demonstrates a refined capability for non-kinetic escalation, likely aimed at disrupting Baltic regional communications ahead of the January 3rd summit.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Performance: An 85% interception rate (176/205) against a saturation-level UAV attack demonstrates high operational readiness and effective management of AD assets.
Strategic Communication: The DRMA and Air Force continue to provide rapid, transparent updates on interceptions, successfully countering RF "strike success" narratives in the domestic space.
Domestic Resilience: Implementation of new economic and social legislation on Jan 1st proceeds despite the kinetic environment, signaling functional governance (0633Z, RBK-Ukraine).
Information environment (cognitive domain)
Disinformation/Misinformation:
Novgorod Strike: Currently classified as UNCONFIRMED. The lack of confirmation from Western intelligence suggests this may be an RF-origin "false flag" rumor or a UAF-aligned PSYOP intended to demonstrate reach.
Lukashenko Claims: Allegations of an assassination plot against Putin in South Africa (0635Z) are assessed as HIGH-LEVEL DISTRACTION/PROPAGANDA, intended to bolster the "besieged fortress" narrative.
Legal Warfare: The Russian "terrorist case" regarding Khorly is being amplified to criminalize UAF kinetic operations in occupied territories.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will maintain high-intensity KAB and artillery pressure on Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to capitalize on the "retaliation" narrative. UAV ingress in Mykolaiv will continue toward Central/Western Ukraine to prevent AD relocation.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF launches a multi-axis missile strike (Kalibr/Iskander) under the pretext of "responding" to the Khorly incident, targeting the already damaged energy infrastructure in Volyn and Odesa.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Novgorod Verification: Requires ELINT/IMINT to determine if any kinetic impact occurred at the Valdai/Novgorod residence or if the report is entirely fabricative.
Khorly BDA: Independent verification of the target in Khorly. Was it a military billeting point (hotel) as seen in previous UAF strikes, or purely civilian as claimed by RF?
Baltic Cable Attribution: Forensic data on the Finland-Estonia cable break to confirm if the damage was via USV, submarine, or "accidental" anchor drag.
