NEW SOUTHERN UAV THREAT (HIGH): A group of OWA-UAVs (likely Shahed-131/136) has been detected in the Black Sea transiting toward the southern Odesa region (Air Force ZSU, 0356Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR ALERT (HIGH): Regional authorities have issued an immediate tactical alert, signaling an imminent kinetic threat (missile or drone) to the region (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0351Z, HIGH).
UAV WAVE CONSOLIDATION (MEDIUM): Reports indicate tracking of "remaining" UAVs from the initial overnight wave, suggesting the saturation phase may be transitioning to terminal strikes or assessment (Николаевский Ванёк, 0341Z, MEDIUM).
RF INTERNAL SUSTAINMENT (MEDIUM): Implementation of Tax Code changes in the Russian Federation as of January 1 indicates a focus on domestic economic regulation and long-term war-chest sustainment despite the holiday (TASS, 0354Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Odesa/Black Sea):ACTIVE THREAT. A new vector of ingress has been established via the Black Sea. This group of UAVs likely aims to exploit maritime approaches where land-based acoustic sensors and MFGs (Mobile Fire Groups) have less coverage. Targets likely include port infrastructure or grain silos in the Izmail/Reni corridor.
Zaporizhzhia Sector:CRITICAL READINESS. Following the 0351Z alert, units of the 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (GMRB) are suspected to be conducting or supporting "year-end" spoiling attacks as noted in the 24h summary. The alert suggests a potential for localized missile strikes or heavy MLRS fire.
Zhytomyr/Western Sector:MONITORING. Following the 0324Z transit from Kyiv (Ref: Previous Sitrep), no new kinetic impacts have been reported. Forces remain on high alert for deep-rear infrastructure probes.
Eastern Sector (Donbas):STAGNANT/PR FOCUS. Information operations continue to dominate the DNR landscape. No new ground-truth updates on the status of Myrnohrad since the 1500Z report of "grim" deterioration.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Tactical Shift: The introduction of a Black Sea vector at 0356Z, while other UAVs are being hunted in the west, indicates a "staggered arrival" tactic designed to keep Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) in a state of constant displacement and exhaustion.
Fiscal Mobilization: The activation of new tax laws (TASS, 0354Z) suggests the RF MoD is synchronizing with civilian administrative changes to ensure the continued funding of the "special military operation" into 2026, reinforcing the intent for a war of attrition.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Current belief scores (0.222) suggest a high probability of reconnaissance-heavy missions in South Odesa, likely as precursors to larger missile strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Sector Defense: AFU Air Force is actively vectoring interceptors and MFGs toward the Odesa coastline to intercept the incoming UAV group.
Civil Defense: Zaporizhzhia and Odesa regional administrations are maintaining tight communication with the populace to minimize civilian casualties during the current alert window.
Information environment / disinformation
Normalization Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) is prioritizing domestic administrative updates (Tax Code) to project an image of internal stability and "business as usual" while high-intensity strikes continue.
Tactical Transparency: Ukrainian "volunteer" channels (e.g., Николаевский Ванёк) continue to provide more rapid tactical warnings than official MoD sources, which remains a key component of the domestic information defense.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The UAV group in the Black Sea will attempt a strike on the Danube port infrastructure or energy hubs in the Odesa region between 0430Z and 0600Z. Simultaneously, the Zaporizhzhia alert will likely result in a localized Iskander-M or S-300 strike on UAF logistics nodes.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The "remaining" UAVs are acting as bait to deplete Odesa's AD ammunition, followed immediately by a Kalibr cruise missile salvo from Black Sea Fleet submarines/vessels currently positioned in the southern basin.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad Ground Truth:CRITICAL. Immediate confirmation is required if Myrnohrad has been bypassed or occupied (Ref: P1 from Daily Report).
Odesa UAV Origin: Confirm if the 0356Z UAV group was launched from Crimea (Cape Chauda) or if there is evidence of maritime-launched USV-platform UAVs.
Zaporizhzhia Alert Nature: Clarify if the 0351Z alert was triggered by Tu-95MS activity (missile launch) or localized ballistic/UAV threats.
