WESTWARD UAV EXPANSION (HIGH): OWA-UAVs previously detected in the Bucha Raion (Kyiv Oblast) have transited into Zhytomyr Oblast airspace as of 0324Z (Air Force ZSU, 0324Z, HIGH).
RF STRATEGIC NARRATIVE SYNC (MEDIUM): Coordinated release of Putin’s New Year address and "Vostok" Group PR videos targeting the DNR, focusing on "victory" and regional "liberation" without acknowledgment of personnel losses (РБК-Україна, 0316Z; Colonelcassad, 0333Z, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING (LOW): Russian state media is highlighting former President Trump’s "peace" rhetoric to frame US foreign policy as internally conflicted (TASS, 0317Z, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zhytomyr/Western Sector:ACTIVE THREAT. The migration of UAVs from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr indicates a sustained westerly transit. This vector likely targets critical infrastructure nodes or seeks to overfly the "N-06" highway corridor to probe deep-rear air defense (AD) positions.
Kyiv Sector (Bucha):TRANSIT ZONE. While the primary threat has moved toward Zhytomyr, the vector confirms the RF is utilizing the northern/northwestern approach to bypass the capital’s central AD umbrella.
Donetsk Sector (DNR):CONSOLIDATION/PR. Activity from the "Vostok" (East) Guards is currently focused on information operations within the occupied territories, likely intended to stabilize the rear as high-intensity operations continue near the Dnipropetrovsk border (Colonelcassad, 0333Z).
Dnipropetrovsk/Samarivskyi Sector:MONITORING. No new kinetic updates since 0244Z; the situation remains critical based on the previous 24h context of RF "Group O" elements approaching the administrative border.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Flight Profiles: The shift from Kyiv to Zhytomyr suggests a "roving" OWA-UAV tactic designed to map Ukrainian AD response times in the western oblasts. This is consistent with a precursor phase for a larger coordinated strike.
Information Operations (IO): The RF is heavily leaning into "victory" and "normalization" narratives (Putin speech, military holiday greetings). DS belief scores (0.574) confirm a dominant propaganda effort. This IO surge is likely intended to mask the "grim" reality of high attrition rates mentioned in the 24h summary.
Hybrid/Diplomatic: Use of TASS to amplify Trump’s "peace" messaging serves to exploit perceived political divisions within the US, aiming to demoralize UAF forces regarding long-term Western support.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: AFU Air Force is maintaining high-fidelity tracking of UAVs across oblast borders. Information is being disseminated in real-time to MFGs (Mobile Fire Groups) in the Zhytomyr region.
Counter-Narrative: Ukrainian media is actively countering RF IO by highlighting the omission of RF casualty data in Putin’s address, attempting to maintain domestic morale and international visibility on the human cost of RF operations.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Moral Preponderance: The "Vostok" Group video (0333Z) is a Ministry of Defense-produced PR piece designed to project an image of humanitarian presence and stability in the DNR.
Cognitive Bias Exploitation: RF state media is utilizing the New Year holiday to push "Peace" (Trump) vs "Victory" (Putin) narratives, attempting to create a cognitive dissonance for Ukrainian defenders regarding the feasibility of continued resistance.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): UAVs in Zhytomyr will attempt to strike energy or railway infrastructure in the Berdychiv or Zhytomyr hubs. Expect a transition from "Shahed" probing to a localized cruise missile or Iskander-M strike against the Dnipropetrovsk border region to exploit the Pokrovsk breach.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-vector strike involving remaining "Shaheds" and a fresh wave of Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea, timed to coincide with the end of the holiday window when readiness might be perceived as lower.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zhytomyr Vector Destination: Confirm if the UAVs in Zhytomyr are continuing west toward Rivne/Lviv or turning south toward Vinnytsia.
Myrnohrad Status: Immediate ground truth required on whether the city center has been fully occupied or if UAF maintains a presence in the western outskirts (Ref: Daily Report P1).
SAR Update: New SAR imagery of the 260th GRAU Arsenal is required to see if the surge (Score 27.24) has resulted in a depletion of stocks (indicating missiles are already in flight/on launchers).
