KAB STRIKES – SUMY OBLAST (HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Sumy Oblast (0118Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
WESTERN VECTOR EXPANSION – RIVNE (HIGH): OWA-UAVs detected in northern Rivne Oblast, maintaining a westward course toward Volyn (0115Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
SOUTHERN SECTOR CLEARANCE (MEDIUM): Reports indicate the OWA-UAV threat in the southern regions has been neutralized ("minus") (0132Z, Nikolaevsky Vanek, MEDIUM).
CONOTOP VECTOR (HIGH): UAVs in Sumy Oblast are currently transiting toward or past Konotop from the northeast (0113Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
YOUTH PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN (MEDIUM): RF state-aligned channels are circulating synchronized "Yunarmiya" (Young Army) New Year greetings to reinforce domestic military support (0125Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The aerial assault has entered a secondary phase characterized by the integration of tactical aviation (KABs) in the north and the expansion of the UAV corridor into the Western Interior.
Battlefield Geometry: The UAV threat has shifted its weight. While the Southern vector appears cleared, the Northern and Western sectors are seeing renewed activity. The Rivne-Volyn corridor is now a primary transit route for strikes targeting western infrastructure.
Weather: Nighttime conditions persist; cold temperatures remain within operational limits for OWA-UAV engines and KAB guidance systems.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Konotop):ESCALATION. The introduction of KABs (0118Z) indicates RF tactical aviation is operating in the border regions, likely targeting UAF hardened positions, logistics hubs near Konotop, or energy infrastructure. This adds a high-explosive weight that UAVs lack.
Western Sector (Rivne/Volyn):EXPANSION. The detection of UAVs in northern Rivne (0115Z) suggests a multi-layered approach to bypass AD in the Volyn/Lutsk area. This confirms a concerted effort to strike Western Ukrainian logistics or energy hubs.
Southern Sector:THREAT DIMINISHED. Active UAV threats in the south have been neutralized (0132Z). This allows for a potential redistribution of Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) to the north/central axes if the threat does not reconstitute.
Central Sector: Remains under threat from the "Sumy group" moving toward Konotop and potentially toward the Kyiv-Chernihiv axis.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is utilizing OWA-UAVs as "pathfinders" or AD-saturation tools in the West (Rivne/Volyn) while simultaneously using KABs in the North for kinetic destruction. This suggests a differentiated targeting strategy: attrition/harassment in the West, and heavy tactical suppression in the North.
Forces Identified:Yunarmiya (Russian Young Army) is being heavily featured in the information space (0125Z), likely a pre-planned IO move to project long-term national resolve during the "New Year Blitz."
Logistics: The SAR score of 27.24 at the 260th GRAU Arsenal remains the baseline indicator that the current UAV/KAB activity is the "shaping" phase for a larger missile event.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD successfully cleared the Southern sector. Focus is now shifting to the interception of KABs—a significantly more difficult target—and the evolving UAV threat in Rivne.
Counter-Measures: Electronic Warfare (EW) is likely being prioritized in the Rivne/Volyn corridor to disrupt UAV navigation as they transit toward Volyn.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Adversary Narrative: TASS is emphasizing the "long holiday month" (0111Z) to project an image of internal stability and economic normalcy, contrasting with the high-intensity kinetic operations.
Propaganda: The use of Yunarmiya (0125Z) serves to militarize the holiday sentiment, framing the ongoing strikes as a generational defense of the RF.
6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue KAB strikes in Sumy to suppress AD and artillery before dawn. The UAVs in Rivne will likely converge with the previously identified Lutsk-bound groups for a synchronized strike on the Kovel/Lutsk rail/energy junctions within the next 2 hours.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): KAB strikes in Sumy are a precursor to a cross-border raid or a significant tactical push by "Group North" (previously inspected by Gerasimov), timed to exploit the distraction caused by the nationwide UAV alarm.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad Line:CRITICAL/STILL GAPPED. No new ground-truth data. Confirmation required on whether RF "Group O" has moved into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
KAB Impact BDA: Immediate assessment of targets hit by KABs in Sumy (0118Z). Are these strikes targeting UAF reserve positions or critical civilian infrastructure?
Rivne Vector Origin: Determine if the UAVs in Northern Rivne (0115Z) originated from Belarusian territory or were launched from the Bryansk/Kursk regions and took a deep northern transit path.
