AD ENGAGEMENT – LUTSK (HIGH): Air Defense (AD) systems are actively engaging targets in Lutsk as of 0104Z; Mayor Polishchuk confirms kinetic activity (0104Z, RBC-UA, HIGH).
VECTOR SHIFT – CHERNIHIV OBLAST (HIGH): The OWA-UAV group previously in Sumy has adjusted course toward Bakhmach, Chernihiv Oblast (0049Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
NEW INGRESS – ZHYTOMYR OBLAST (HIGH): Fresh detection of OWA-UAVs entering Zhytomyr airspace from the north/east (0037Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
RETALIATORY STRIKE – MOSCOW (MEDIUM): RF sources claim interception of 10 Ukrainian UAVs targeting Moscow; indicates a synchronized UAF counter-strike during the RF "New Year Blitz" (0052Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
PSYCHOLOGICAL OPS – RF UNIT IDENTIFICATION (MEDIUM): RF propaganda channels are circulating New Year greetings from the "Wolves" Brigade and front-line Air Defense units to project operational stability (0047Z, 0103Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The aerial theater has expanded significantly within the last hour. The RF multi-vector OWA-UAV (Shahed/Geran) attack is now impacting the Western (Lutsk), Northern (Chernihiv/Sumy), and Central (Zhytomyr) sectors simultaneously.
Battlefield Geometry: The "Sumy group" is demonstrating a deeper penetration capability, moving toward the Bakhmach rail/logistics junction. The Western vector has transitioned from transit to engagement in the Lutsk/Kovel corridor.
Weather: No significant change; cold, clear conditions favor IR-based tracking but sustain UAV flight endurance.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Western Sector (Volyn/Lutsk):ACTIVE ENGAGEMENT. UAF AD is operational over Lutsk. RF sources are monitoring these strikes for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment), using internet-meme narratives to mock the impact (0046Z, NgP Razvedka, MEDIUM).
Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv):MANEUVER PHASE. UAVs are transiting Sumy Oblast toward Bakhmach (Chernihiv Oblast). This vector threatens the arterial connections between Kyiv and the northeastern front.
Central Sector (Zhytomyr):NEW THREAT. Entry of UAVs into Zhytomyr airspace forces a widening of the AD umbrella and potentially threatens energy infrastructure serving the capital's western approaches.
RF Interior (Moscow):KINETIC IMPACT. Reported interception of 10 UAVs. This suggests the UAF has successfully launched a long-range deep strike operation to coincide with the RF's holiday offensive, likely aiming to disrupt RF C2 or political stability.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is maintaining a "steady-state" saturation. While some sources (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 0043Z) suggest a "remainder" of drones, the AFU continues to detect new vectors in Zhytomyr and Sumy, suggesting a phased arrival rather than a single massive wave.
Logistics & Sustainment: Previous intelligence (Daily Report, SAR Score 27.24) regarding the 260th GRAU Arsenal remains the primary indicator that this UAV wave is a precursor to a heavier missile volley (Kalibr/Iskander).
Forces Identified: Presence of the "Wolves" Brigade and front-line AD units in the information space suggests these units are currently in high-readiness or active transit (0047Z, 0103Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Strategic Communications: President Zelensky delivered the New Year address (2140Z, Dec 31), emphasizing national resilience. This serves as a critical morale stabilizer during the ongoing strikes.
Air Defense Posture: High activity reported in Volyn. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely being prioritized for the Zhytomyr and Chernihiv vectors to preserve high-end interceptors.
Counter-Offensive Capability: The reported 10-UAV strike on Moscow demonstrates that UAF retains the initiative for "asymmetric retaliation" despite the saturation of domestic airspace.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Adversary Narrative: RF state media (TASS) and mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad) are heavily emphasizing "victory in 2026" and showcasing tactical successes (Volyn video) to drown out reports of the Moscow strike.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Analytical beliefs (0.318) strongly favor a coordinated Information Warfare effort by Russia, corroborating the heavy volume of military greetings and TASS-led reporting.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue OWA-UAV pressure through 0300Z to exhaust AD crews. Follow-on cruise missile strikes are highly likely at dawn (0500Z-0700Z) targeting energy infrastructure in Central Ukraine.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A breakthrough on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis (which remains in "intelligence silence") coordinated with a total blackout in Kyiv caused by the current aerial wave.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad Status:CRITICAL. Zero updates in the last 60 minutes. Request immediate ELINT/IMINT on the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border to confirm if RF "Group O" has breached the line.
Moscow Strike BDA: Verify the targets of the 10 UAVs mentioned by Sobyanin. Determine if these were intended for the MoD or energy infrastructure.
Lutsk Impact Detail: Confirm if the AD engagement in Lutsk (0104Z) successfully neutralized all threats or if there are ground-level impacts/fires at the Kovel railway junction.
