NEW NORTHERN INGRESS – SUMY VECTOR (HIGH): A fresh group of OWA-UAVs launched from Kursk Oblast (RF) has crossed into Sumy Oblast, specifically vectoring toward Putyvl on a south-western course (0023Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
TACTICAL PROGRESSION – KONOTOP (HIGH): The aforementioned UAV group has bypassed Putyvl and is now moving toward Konotop, indicating a potential strike on regional rail/energy hubs or a transit toward the Kyiv/Chernihiv corridor (0034Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
SUSTAINED RF INFORMATION OPERATIONS (HIGH): Russian channels (Colonelcassad) are distributing coordinated morale-boosting content, including video greetings from the "St. Luke of Crimea" Battalion, to coincide with the kinetic strikes (0023Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
ONGOING IMPACT – WESTERN/SOUTHERN SECTORS (HIGH): Kinetic activity continues in Lutsk (Volyn) and Odesa following confirmed impacts and fires reported earlier; aerial saturation remains the primary RF mode of operation (Context: Previous Sitrep, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The RF "New Year Blitz" has expanded into a multi-phase aerial operation. While the first wave is currently impacting targets in Western Ukraine (Lutsk) and the South (Odesa), a second wave has been initiated from the North (Kursk vector).
Battlefield Geometry: The ingress zone has widened to include the Sumy-Konotop axis. This creates a simultaneous threat across three distinct geographical vectors (West, South, North), forcing the UAF to distribute Air Defense (AD) assets and Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs).
Environmental Factors: Operations continue under cover of darkness. The timing (post-midnight local) exploits the psychological fatigue of the holiday transition.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Konotop):NEW ACTIVITY. Multiple UAVs detected moving from Kursk. The trajectory toward Konotop suggests a secondary line of effort to either pressure the northern approaches to Kyiv or strike logistical nodes in Sumy Oblast.
Western Sector (Volyn/Lutsk/Kovel):IMPACT PHASE. Lutsk remains under threat following confirmed fires. RF assets are likely conducting BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) via the same OWA-UAVs or preparing for follow-on strikes.
Southern Sector (Odesa):ENGAGEMENT PHASE. Maritime-launched or coastal-ingress UAVs are active. Previous explosions (0002Z) indicate successful penetration of the local AD bubble.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad):INTELLIGENCE SILENCE. No new messages have been received regarding the reported "grim" situation on the Dnipropetrovsk border. This sector remains the highest risk for unobserved ground-force maneuvers.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is staggering its launches. By initiating the Sumy ingress approximately one hour after the Lutsk/Odesa impacts, they are attempting to prevent UAF AD from consolidating or relocating resources.
Forces Involved: The mention of the "St. Luke of Crimea" Battalion (0023Z) confirms the involvement of volunteer/ideological units in the current propaganda cycle, likely linked to the broader "Group South" or "Group East" commands.
Course of Action: The RF is following a Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA) of saturation-driven infrastructure disruption.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is maintaining high-resolution tracking of the new Sumy group. Alerts are active for Konotop.
Civilian Morale: Operational ZSU (0016Z) notes the psychological strain of the New Year's night, framing the situation as a test of endurance. Functional command and control (C2) is evident in the rapid dissemination of tracking data to the public.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Adversary Narrative: RF sources are utilizing "front-line greetings" to project an image of high morale and "holy war" (implied by the battalion's name, St. Luke of Crimea).
Propaganda Synchronization: The release of these videos during active strikes is a deliberate hybrid tactic to contrast "Russian celebration" with "Ukrainian crisis."
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
MLCOA: UAVs currently over Sumy will reach the Konotop/Nizhyn area within 60-90 minutes. Expect further OWA-UAV launches from the Primorsko-Akhtarsk or Briansk vectors to maintain saturation through dawn.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF utilizes the exhaustion of AD crews in the North and West to launch a tactical ballistic missile (Iskander-M) strike on high-value targets in Kyiv or Dnipro during the transition to daylight.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk Border:CRITICAL. Immediate ground-truth confirmation required. The lack of communications from this sector suggests either a tactical withdrawal, electronic warfare (EW) saturation, or a communication breakdown.
Konotop Target Identification: Determine if the current UAV group is targeting the railway junction or energy distribution substations.
Lutsk BDA: Clarify if the fire reported by Mayor Polishchuk has been contained and the specific nature of the facility struck (Military vs. Civilian).
UAV Variant Identification: Confirm if the "Sumy Group" consists of standard Geran-2/Shahed variants or the "Molniya" (Lightning) variant previously mentioned in RF sources.
